Why Ukraine is winning

[anamnua]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-military-strategy-russian-failure-kyiv/629514/
Battles reveal more than they decide. Battles in which the outcome is truly up for grabs are rare, and battles that prove decisive in achieving a political goal are rarer still. Instead, battles demonstrate how effectively combatants planned, prepared, and executed before the fighting began. The result of a battle exposes not only how well matched the sides are but also how the war might unfold in the future. In that sense, the outcome of the Battle of Kyiv was never in doubt. Russia’s and Ukraine’s preparations for the fight essentially preordained the result. But the Battle of Kyiv has revealed a great deal about why Ukraine has done so much better in the war than many analysts predicted.

The Ukrainian way of war is a coherent, intelligent, and well-conceived strategy to fight the Russians, one well calibrated to take advantage of specific Russian weaknesses. It has allowed the Ukrainians to maintain mobility, helped force the Russians into static positions for long periods by fouling up their logistics, opened up the Russians to high losses from attrition, and, in the Battle of Kyiv, led to a victory that has completely recast the political endgame of the Russian invasion. The original maximalist Russian attempt to seize all of Ukraine has been drastically scaled back to a far more limited effort aimed at seizing territory in the east and south of the country.

The Ukrainian way of war has a few foundational elements that we have seen in operation around Kyiv and across the country. They are:

Contesting air supremacy over the area of battle;
Denying Russia control of cities, complicating the Russian military’s communications and logistics;
Allowing Russian forces to get strung out along roads in difficult-to-support columns; and
Attacking those columns from all sides.

[lagomorph777]

1. No quoted excerpt? (EDIT) Thanks!

Last edited Fri Apr 8, 2022, 11:52 PM - Edit history (1)

[abqtommy]

4. The OP here does quote the article. I went to the Atlantic link and found that

registration was required to read so I searched and went to the SCRIBD site that
presents the Atlantic article. It's word-for-word what has been posted above.

https://www.scribd.com/article/568635733/Why-Ukraine-Is-Winning

[lagomorph777]

6. (OP added it)

Thanks for sharing as well!

[Ray Bruns]

2. While the Ukrainians did well in preperation, they definitely exploited major FUBARs

of the Russian army tactics and logistics. Had the Russians had professional soldiers, coordinated air with ground forces, and been able to supply gas to their tanks, I think the outcome would be much in doubt.

[Bucky]

3. Ukraine is "winning" because Russia over committed. The next phase will be different, brutal

Russia is very likely to success closing in on the eastern provinces with heavy Russian-ethnic minorities (most of whom seem to support the Kyiv government). After that they will still push westward toward the Dniepr River. That's open country and it's not as muddy as it was a month ago when the Russian tanks first started getting bogged down. That's classic tank warfare country, like with North Africa in 2WW. Russian tanks and helicopters and mobile artillery will have a distinct advantage over Ukraine's smaller armored forces. The stingers won't as readily concealed in that terrain, compared to the forest covered north and coast of Ukraine.

If we want to stop Russian aggression (which painfully right now means fighting down to the last Ukrainian), we probably need to enter into a wartime production mentality. I hope the Biden Pentagon is also tripling down on drone production. We need to help Ukraine control their own skies and I doubt they'll be able to do that with their current air force.

[Xolodno]

5. I'm going to be the buzz kill.

Ukraine isn't winning.

Russia has its land bridge to Crimea and it appears the attack on Kyiv was a well orchestrated feint (of course you will hear differently from our side). Armies do not move that fast out unless it was planned that way. The Russian army was out in a few days on that offensive, they planned it. But Ukraine could not ignore it as a feint could still end up being a full blown takeover, even by accident.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-44-summary/

The eastern front was always the main focus. Mariupol is for all intents and purposes, under Russian control, which is the city that used to house their training aircraft carrier, and now will probably be the place they build their two new ones planned. And Zelensky firing two generals on that front says something. They probably told him it was lost and sue for peace.

And this was never posted here, but the reason why Zelensky was never assassinated by Chechen groups...the FSB, the Russian intelligence agency, warned him. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/president-zelenksy-russia-assassination-plot-foiled-fsb-ukraine-1493210

They don't want to make him a martyr. And it appears they got what they wanted. But I am surprised they didn't go after Odessa and link up with Transnistria. Ukraine had to put down a pro Russia revolt there, during the last incursion. But right now, it appears the war is winding down.

The good news, Ukraine is on its way to join the EU, Putin has telegraphed quite well he had no problem with that. Nor does he want to take the nation or rebuild the Soviet Union (yeah, I know how unpopular that statement is). All the republics brought down two empires, why would you want to resurrect that for a third time?

Bad news, the refugee's. Most won't come back and I know that on a personal level.