"The number of Russian vehicles that have been abandoned intact but without fuel is striking"

[Bucky]

in case you wanted some encouraging news:

The casualties caused by Ukraine’s harassing attacks hampered Russian attempts to build up enough forces to assault Kyiv. Though the Russians tried to advance on three different road systems, from Sumy, Chernihiv, and the northwest, Ukrainian resistance ensured that they never built up enough force to surround, let alone assault, Kyiv. All three lines of attack have now been shut down, and Russian forces are in retreat.

Instead of assaulting heavy Russian formations of large tanks and artillery directly, the Ukrainians used light, maneuverable forces to take advantage of Russian vulnerabilities and achieve victory. Using handheld weapons operated by small groups, the Ukrainians have regularly disabled Russian tanks and trucks. This has not only weakened the Russian forces in the field but also kept their logistics lines stretched, limiting Russian access to the fuel and ammunition required to keep up a constant attack. (The number of Russian vehicles that have been abandoned intact but without fuel is particularly striking.)

In using light forces this way, the Ukrainians have shown that even in a conventional war between states—as opposed to an insurgency—a smaller force can engage the conventional forces of a larger and more technologically advanced enemy and fight them to a standstill. The Ukrainians have also reminded everyone that the American military, with its lavish logistical support and ability to dominate the air war and the electronic battlefield, is unusual. The Russian military is not some smaller, less-efficient version of the U.S. military. It is a significantly less advanced and less capable force that struggles to undertake many of the operations that the U.S. handles with relative ease. The Ukrainians did not make the mistake of overestimating the Russians, and were able to deal a huge blow to Russian power.

Ukraine, however, has not yet won the war. With their defeat in the Battle of Kyiv, the Russians have started to concentrate in the east and south of Ukraine, hoping to set up a defensive perimeter that the Ukrainians will have to attack if they hope to regain lost territory. The Ukrainian way of war will have to adapt. The Ukrainians, having witnessed the Russian failures in heavy assault, may decide to avoid making the same mistakes and instead continue their light, attritional warfare. This will probably not result in a swift end to the war, but it offers the possibility of draining Russian military and political will, allowing Ukraine to achieve many of its aims in negotiations. The Ukrainian way of war could yet achieve what once seemed all but impossible: victory.

read the whole thing

[localroger]

1. Cheap drones will change warfare as much as the internal combustion engine did

The IC engine made tanks and mobile artillery possible, and those have been the main staples of ground warfare since the Nazis used them to such devastating effect at the beginning of WWII. But drones are the next level, able to do behind the lines recon with no risk to human personnel and precision deliver a pound or two of ordnance through the open hatch of a tank or to the top of a gasoline tanker. They are quiet, fast, and almost impossible to stop. Pair with small control teams using cheap unarmored ATV's to maneuver, cheap night vision devices to do it in the dark, and what were once state of the art battlefield systems become sitting ducks. Even if you sacrifice a drone for each attack what you are destroying is far more valuable than the weapon system and there is almost zero risk to the operators.

The Russians are completely unprepared for this. They didn't even deploy with their own night vision capability. Future defenses will probably concentrate on jamming and detection, but those will take time to develop as this is a completely new style of warfare. Now that the whole world has seen how effective they are the world's militaries will probably realize that it is even cheaper to mass-produce their own purpose built drones rather than use commercial models. Navigation and control software will be a big deal, but that only has to be developed once to field a fleet with new capabilities. Batteries are not a limitation as a ten minute range is more than enough to get from a safe distance to enemy lines, find a target, and bomb it. Unlike artillery the act of launching and controlling the drone does not automatically draw attention to one's self for counterattack. And drones can be made nearly invisible to radar, and fly under it with ease.

[Historic NY]

2. LOL the Russians learned nothing from history...

they repeated the mistakes of the French in reverse. in the Second Polish War of 1812.. The Germans in the muddy fields of WWII. Putin uses his army like Stalin, throwing bodies into the meat grinder.

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. Start a ground attack in March? Why

Do they teach 20th century military history in Russia? Total logistical/tactical failure.

If I am Ukraine, I'd keep the pipeline coming for these tank killer, ground-to-air missle systems. Re-allocate to the East to counter the next Russian deployment. What Ukraine has learned over the past month and the world's willingness to clip Putin's wings to make Putin's Folly complete.

[Aristus]

5. Or even their own cartoonishly incompetent invasion of Finland in 1939.

The gallant Finns held off the Soviets for an entire winter and won the hearts of people all over the world with their bravery.

[hatrack]

6. Or the even more incompetently managed Russo-Japanese war . . .

This time with Russian ground forces playing the role of the Imperial fleet.

[uponit7771]

4. Russian logistics is heavily dependent on rail, when they get far away from it they screw up bad.

[Wingus Dingus]

7. So the big 40-mile Kyiv-conquering convoy...is that

still on? Anyone heard from those guys? No?

[Wingus Dingus]

8. Also, this will make my husband's day, as he is retired military:

"The Ukrainians have also reminded everyone that the American military, with its lavish logistical support and ability to dominate the air war and the electronic battlefield, is unusual. The Russian military is not some smaller, less-efficient version of the U.S. military. It is a significantly less advanced and less capable force that struggles to undertake many of the operations that the U.S. handles with relative ease."