🇨🇵🗳️ Estimate @IpsosFrance of the result of the first round of the presidential election:

[demmiblue]

🟠 Macron 28,1%
⚫ Le Pen 23,3%
🔴 Mélenchon 20,1%
🟤 Zemmour 7,2%
🔵 Pécresse 5%
🟢 Jadot 4,4%
⚪ Lassale 3,3%
🔴 Roussel 2,7%

Link to tweet

[Karadeniz]

1. First round? What are the subsequent rounds?

[brooklynite]

3. Runoff between Macron and Le Pen in two weeks.

[Sympthsical]

7. Top two on April 24th

If general recent French history is anything to go by, the center/left divide all over the place in the first round. The second round ends up being a center/liberal and a right-wing type.

Then the center/left who divided in the first round all coalesce in the second, and the right-winger is sent packing.

Generally that's how that goes.

[brooklynite]

2. Before you panic about this...

Macron and Le Pen account for 51% of the vote. I'd say a lot of the third party votes will end up with Macron in round two.

[Bettie]

4. Do you know offhand which of the third parties lean

left or right?

[brooklynite]

8. Here

🟠 Macron 28,1%
⚫ Le Pen 23,3%
🔴 Mélenchon 20,1% (Democratic Socialist; has endorsed Macron in 2nd round)
🟤 Zemmour 7,2% (Far right; has endorsed Le Pen in 2nd round)
🔵 Pécresse 5% (center right; has endorsed Macron in 2nd round)
🟢 Jadot 4,4% (Green Party has endorsed Macron in 2nd round)
⚪ Lassale 3,3% (center-right)
🔴 Roussel 2,7% (Communist; has endorsed Macron in 2nd round)

[Bettie]

9. Thanks...

so, Macron should be fine.

LePen would be a disaster for France and Europe.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Poll trend has it about 52% Macron, 48% Le Pen, with Le Pen having the momentum

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election#Macron_vs._Le_Pen

It's on a knife-edge.

[brooklynite]

14. That last poll had 18% undecided.

That said; those were pre-election polls; we're now analyzing how people actually voted, and how Party leaders threw their support.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Le Pen is not far behind, on 1st round Melenchon voters

The last poll from this round: http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/04/Rapport-Harris-Interactive-Toluna-V41-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf

Macron gets 34% of Melenchon voters; Le Pen 21%. And it's 8% v. 84% for Zemmour voters, unsurprisingly. Pecresse voters split 46%/33%.

Melenchon has asked his voters to not vote for Le Pen, but hasn't asked them to vote for Macron. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/10/france-presidential-election-2022-close-race-expected-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-first-round-live-updates?page=with:block-625325ca8f083703c7bd9b01#block-625325ca8f083703c7bd9b01

[The Unmitigated Gall]

5. Glad to see Macron on top.

Sad to see so many votes for an anti-NATO fascist ally of Pootler, at a time when (r)ussian orcs are raping, torturing and executing children.

Fuck Russia.

[David__77]

6. It's unfortunate that apparently Melenchon won't make it to second round.

…

[yorkster]

13. It may help move Macron a bit further left.

May also help the left in the national elections in June.

Melenchon has supported France leaving NATO.
Hope the hell he's rethinking that and says so.
He apparently wants non-alignment as opposed to neutrality, but neither position is tenable given current events in UKR, etc.

BBC had a too long interview with a Le Pen spokesman and then an interview with a Melenchon spokeswoman.
Did not realize Melenchon had this position on NATO....

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. In 5th and 9th, the 2 parties that produced presidents from the start of the 5th Republic

until Macron (that's assuming Hildago, the Socialist candidate, was 9th, after these 8). Their party system has exploded, for electing a president.