Possibly a dumb question about recessions during times of tight labor markets

[NickB79]

I'm trying to wrap my mind around the concept of a recession occurring when we're told there are millions more jobs than employees currently available. Would the backlog of unfilled jobs act as a buffer of sorts, blunting serious job losses? Or do they play no role? Is it possible to have a recession without serious job losses?

Like I said, possibly dumb, so be gentle.

[Hoyt]

1. Efforts to curtail inflation could lead to recession.

Here’s a good article looking at why you might be right, and maybe wrong.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/business/economy/recession-economy.html

Think we need to keep in mind that while we are close, we haven’t quite gotten back to where we were before COVID.

[uponit7771]

2. The "signs" of recession are consumer driven pessimism because of prices going up vs ...

... some underlying structural reason.

People know corps are being greedy and aren't spending. I fly RC airplanes and even though income went up 5.6% YoY the websites that would be sold out a year ago are all in stock with parts and other crap from China. (anecdotal)

https://www.investopedia.com/consumer-sentiment-hits-new-low-in-early-march-2022-5221965

[SmallFry]

5. I have flown an inexpensive Blade RC helicopter for a long time.

I use it to clear my mind. My neighbor races drones. He watched me with my helicopter night after night. Tells me one day that I’ve mastered that level and need to get into something more advanced.

I find peace in flying it. Can fully fly it in race mode but never do. I like to go slow. Hop from landing area to landing area. I find peace in simply hovering. He didn’t understand that. Good friend and great neighbor. Alpha male to the max.

I bought my Blade for $136 years and years ago. Sill flying it. I’ve done all repairs myself. Even that’s peaceful.

Anyway, I really want to get a plane. I’m concerned I’ll find it to be stressful. I think I’m going to give it a try.

[haele]

3. Optimal unemployment is actually 2.5 to 3.5 %

You need to have job mobility into so not everyone is stuck at the job they're at for years. That amount shows people looking for work is high enough that people are leaving jobs, but not so high to indicate there are no jobs to go to.

That amount of unemployment indicates a working economy.

Economics 101.

Haele

[Johnny2X2X]

4. 6.9% growth last year

Recession isn’t close. Even the Fed raising rates isn’t going to slow the economy that quickly.