Putin's Next Play in Ukraine - And How the US and Allies Can Prepare

[Nevilledog]

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Just Security
@just_security
The sinking of #Russia’s flagship naval vessel, #NATO aspirations of #Finland and #Sweden and the most powerful US weapons package for #Ukraine yet – it’s been a bad week for #Putin.

@AmbDanFried cautions to prepare for his next steps:

justsecurity.org
Putin’s Next Play in Ukraine – And How the US and Allies Can Prepare
He may be aiming to score a visible success by the May 9 national holiday marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
6:07 AM · Apr 15, 2022

https://www.justsecurity.org/81135/putins-next-play-in-ukraine-and-how-the-us-and-allies-can-prepare/

Russia has had a bad week in Ukraine. On April 13, either a Ukrainian missile strike or onboard explosion took out the cruiser “Moskva,” flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet; Sweden’s and Finland’s prime ministers announced that they were moving toward a near-term decision to seek NATO membership; and the Biden administration announced its most impactful weapons transfer yet to Ukraine. That announcement followed President Joe Biden’s April 12 assertion that Russian actions in Ukraine appeared to be genocide and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s April 10 forward-leaning statement on “Meet the Press” of U.S. aims in the conflict: “A free and independent Ukraine, a weakened and isolated Russia, and a stronger, more united, more determined West {that] are in sight, can be accomplished.”

It’s been a good week for Ukraine and its supporters. The next move to watch in the war is that of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian forces are massing for a major assault in the Eastern part of Ukraine, from Kharkiv to Mariupol. Putin, obsessed with past Russian glories, real and imagined, may have his eye on May 9, the major Russian national holiday that marks the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. By then, he may hope to have — and for the sake of his own position, he may need to have — a visible success in the war to show Russians.

Putin may achieve such a success, notwithstanding the setbacks, losses, and blunders to date. Mariupol may soon fall to Russian forces, and their troops could advance elsewhere in Ukraine’s East sufficiently beyond the lines of Feb. 24, when the current phase of Putin’s war began, to allow a claim of “success,” however abbreviated. The Kremlin might, for example, be able to claim something like the “liberation” of the Donbas region in the East, and either recognize its independence or annex it. Putin could couple that with annexation of the Russian-controlled, Georgian breakaway province of South Ossetia (whose puppet leader has already indicated interest in joining Russia). That could give some basis for a Putin claim to have reunited some of Russia’s lost empire and on that basis assert victory and vindication.

In that case, Putin could then offer an immediate ceasefire in place and negotiations based on those new lines. Should Ukraine not accept a ceasefire in place, i.e., to de facto recognize Russian control of yet more Ukrainian territory, Putin may continue to attack Ukrainian cities, killing civilians, to pressure the Ukrainian government until it accepts these losses.

*snip*