House Rating Changes: Eight Races Move in Republicans' Direction

[brooklynite]

Cook Political Report

President Biden's approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising "reach" opportunities.

This week, we're moving eight Democratic-held seats into more competitive categories. With these changes, there are 27 Democratic seats in Toss Up or worse, and that list is certain to grow longer when Florida and New Hampshire finalize their lines. By contrast, there are only 12 GOP-held seats in Toss Up or worse - all of which are due to redistricting, not atmospheric factors. Republicans need to net just five seats to regain the House.

Rating Changes:
IN-01: Mrvan (D) - Likely D to Lean D
NV-03: Lee (D) - Lean D to Toss Up
NV-04: Horsford (D) - Lean D to Toss Up
NJ-03: Kim (D) - Solid D to Likely D
NY-04: (open) (D) - Solid D to Likely D
NY-19: Delgado (D) - Likely D to Lean D
NC-01: (open) (D) - Likely D to Lean D
NV-07: Spanberger (D) - Lean D to Toss Up

[FBaggins]

1. He's still predicting a non-disaster

Treating his "toss-up" category as a true 50/50 prediction - even this change amounts to about an eight-seat net loss in November.

Yes - that's enough to lose control, but it would represent a stunningly good outcome compared to what many fear.

Even in a "wave" election where all of the toss-ups go against you and you even lose a few that were "leaners"... that's about 20-25 seats lost. Nothing like the "shellacking" we received in 1994 or 2010 or that we gave them in 2018.

[brooklynite]

2. You need to add 5 Democratic seats rated LEAN R, 1 LIKELY R and 2 SAFE R.

[FBaggins]

3. I did

He has 8 red and 19 blue seats as "toss-up" (net loss 5.5 seats). Then there are the seats you mentioned above (actually six in lean/likely R). But there are also four currently-red seats that are lean/likely blue. Net two more seats down.

If we lose the House in November but it's just an 8-seat loss... I think that most would consider that to be substantially outperforming what we feared.