This small region of Southern Ukraine could create headaches for both Russia and NATO

[Tommy Carcetti]

Since Putin's retreat from his initial efforts to seize the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv several weeks ago, there has been much made about his subsequent efforts to refocus the war in the eastern and southern portions of Ukraine.

Many people think Putin's new campaign will attempt to cut Ukraine off in its entirety from its coastline along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, leaving the country entirely landlocked. Russian troops have already made significant progress along the Sea of Azov, nearly seizing the port city of Mariupol at the Southeast corner of the country and creating a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, which was illegally seized and annexed by Russia in 2014 and remains in de facto Russian control to this day.

However, to completely take all of the coastline from Ukraine, Russia will have to continue to move east towards Odesa, a historic port and the largest city in Southern Ukraine. There has been a lot of talk about Russians mounting an offensive on Odesa much like the failed offensive on Kyiv weeks earlier; however, it is certain that Ukrainians will put a lot of resources into protecting its southern crown jewel city.

But even if Russia moves on Odesa, that would still not give Russia free access to all of Ukraine's coast. Specifically, there would still be the Budjak region of Ukraine remaining to the south west of Odesa.

Budjak isn't particular large, nor is it very populous (only about 600,000 people total, which is smaller than the entire population of the city of Odesa). But because of where it is located, it could create larger implications in Russia's war on Ukraine which until now haven't been truly at play other than in a very hypothetical sense.

For Budjak shares not just one but two borders with two different countries. One is of course Moldova, which like Ukraine is a former Soviet Republic.

The other, however, is Romania.

And Romania is--as we should all know--a member of NATO. Meaning that the war could be brought to the borders of NATO for the first time.

A lot of talk about threats to NATO by Russia involve Poland, which abuts Western Ukraine. But Russian ground forces haven't set foot in Western Ukraine, nor do many people expect Russian ground forces to invade Western Ukraine. The Ukrainian national sentiment in Western Ukraine is strong, the terrain is far more hilly and mountainous than the eastern regions, and it would just be a nearly impossible task for Russia to attempt to conquer that part of the country. So other than occasional airstrikes on western cities like Lviv, the West of Ukraine has remained free of the worst of Russia's wrath, allow it to be a gathering place for people fleeing the violence in the East. And so, the likelihood of Russian troops threatening the Polish border is very low.

But if Russia does lust for all of Ukraine's sea cost, it will actually have to make a move on Budjak, which would almost certainly bring Romania--and thus NATO--into the discussion of war and raise the level of threats considerably.

Likewise, there's been a lot of talk about Russia invading Moldova, which would also involve Romania and to a much larger degree. There is the small Moldovan border region of Transnistria, which has been propped up as a pro-Russian separatist republic for nearly 30 years, that Russia could take. But Moldova is small--not much larger than Massachusetts in area and only about 2 million people total--with a much smaller army than Ukraine, so Putin could become greedy and want the country in its entirety.

The question is, does Russia actually want to do this? Their military has been significantly depleted in the two months since the full scale invasion of Ukraine began in February. Troops are tired, spread thin, and moral is low. There's nothing that would make an assault on Odesa any easier for Russia than its disastrous attempt on Kyiv was, and that would undoubtedly incur a lot more damage on Russian troops. It's possible that Russia doesn't even try to move on Odesa, let alone Moldova or Budjak.

But Putin has proven to be myopic and foolhardy so far when it comes to his actions. He doesn't seem to put much stock in the well-being of his military. So the possibility he goes balls-to-the-wall and brings the war all the way to Moldova and Budjak shouldn't be discounted in its entirety. And if he does follow through, it will raise the severity of this terrible war and all its implications to a level of for our involvement as NATO to a place where it hasn't yet been so far.

[maxsolomon]

1. If they take Odesa, the Budjak region is an afterthought.

It's mostly wetlands with just a few towns. It has 2 roads from the rest of Ukraine that pass in to it; one goes through Moldova, the other, P70, passes over the mouth of the Dneister delta and would certainly be destroyed before Russia could roll tanks across it. Regardless, I'm not sure Ukraine will have many forces left by the time Russia gets there.

Using the E87 through Palanca is either going to require that Moldova acquiesce, or it will start a 2nd war. Then your scenario comes into play, I think. Moldovans are ethnically Romanian.

I believe Odesa is the one place in Ukraine that Putin wants intact. It's a major resort town; the real estate is quite valuable and many Russians have vacation homes (and oligarchs have investments) there.