Putin had to change his calculus after Trump's defeat in 2020.

[kpete]

Still, there was no reason for Putin to act so long as Donald Trump was president. Putin saw Trump weakening NATO by bashing it verbally, questioning whether the United States should honor Article 5, and reportedly flirting with the idea of withdrawing completely. If NATO might self-destruct, then there was no need for Putin to act to prevent Ukraine from joining it.

Putin had to change his calculus after Trump’s defeat in 2020. Joe Biden took steps to reassure allies of the U.S. commitment to NATO. Although there was nothing in NATO’s official statements to suggest that Ukraine could or would obtain membership at a definite point in time, the change in the U.S. attitude towards the alliance, combined with Zelensky’s support for membership, meant that the Ukraine problem became more acute. The timing might appear to be coincidental, but just a few months after Biden took office, the Russian military build-up began on Ukraine’s borders. This development fits with Putin’s penchant for planning carefully before taking action. It also suggests that Putin may already have made the decision to invade.

..........

If Putin began thinking about an eventual invasion of Ukraine after the crisis of 2014, his thinking most likely only crystalized following his failed talks with Zelensky in 2019. While Trump was president, Putin could still hope to resolve the problem some other way. But Biden’s election foreshadowed a revitalization of NATO, so Putin needed to act. He believed that he had insulated Russia from Western sanctions and, as demonstrated in Crimea and Syria, successfully rebuilt the Russian army.

Much More
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/?__s=8s99j5be7qiaxxnw3kz0

[Walleye]

1. I think Trump was talking about pulling our troops out of Europe entirely

Good thing we didn’t do that

[House of Roberts]

2. Putin had some influence in Ukraine,

before he annexed Crimea and declared the separatist regions in Donbas independent. With those areas no longer voting in Ukrainian elections, anti-Russia politicians like Zelensky were inevitable.

[Turbineguy]

3. Interesting....

Well worth the time to read and learn.

[oldsoftie]

4. I believe his plan was to invade regardless. he knew trump wouldn't stop him.

So the time to do it was before NATO could get their shit together again. Or so he THOUGHT.

[Tickle]

5. interesting commentary

I enjoyed reading it.

I do believe it was coincidental that just a few months after Biden took office, the Russian military build-up began on Ukraine's border
and not because of Biden, like I've read

[moondust]

6. Also, in TFG's second term

he would presumably not have any reelection concerns so he would have more freedom to help Putin waltz into Ukraine and install his puppets.