Since November, the GOP lead on generic congressional ballot has dropped from +10 to +7 to -1

[bigtree]

...Republicans lose ground when it comes to which party voters see themselves casting ballots for in November and the parties are now at rough parity. WaPo

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Ohio Joe]

1. This is amazaballs...

The magaloons will continue to try and sell the fantasy Dems are doomed but it’s all bullshit. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… I don’t believe for one second we will lose either house and November will be a very happy time.

[Norbert]

2. Finally the GQP bad behavior is catching up with them

I hope by Nov it is down to -21. The downside is DeSantis and Abbott will probably decertify the election if they don't like what they see.

[dchill]

3. What will the media do about this troubling trend?

Chuck? Hallie? Andrea? What say you?

[70sEraVet]

4. The GOP can just re-energize their base with a few good cocaine-fueled orgies!

[ananda]

5. Minus certainly works for me.

Thanks.

[MineralMan]

6. Good News!

And it will probably get better after the House hearings. In fact, I'm sure of it.

[PatSeg]

33. That's what I'm thinking

I am so tired of pundits assuming Democrats are going to lose in November. Sometimes it feels like wishful thinking on their part.

[mcar]

7. Wish the media reported on these polls

the way they do the "Biden is doomed" polls.

[a kennedy]

27. I know, I'm really sick of that whole shit. "Biden/Democrats demise. 🤬

[Joenobody]

8. Redistricting will hurt Republicans too

Their house advantage is reduced, but not gone.

Need to focus on winning back stare houses as well.

[Celerity]

17. no, now that NY map was tossed, they are back up to a net +9 in seat gains and 3 of the 4

unfinished maps are in Red (legislature controlling) states (NY being the only one that is not and there is good chance NY will now be a wash or a +1 max for us)

The Rethugs have just ignored some of the states supreme courts (NC is an example) and have rammed though partisan maps, they stalled out the clock, so the 2022 election maps are locked in despite being turned down by the courts

in NY we are caving in and will redo it

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/

[Joenobody]

20. Politico is burying the lead. Strong seats don't matter. The 2020 map

Had enough r leaning seats that they would almost have a majority from that alone. Many of those seats have over to toss ups.

[Celerity]

22. more background

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Joenobody]

28. I specifically said it was reduced, not gone

Which is true.

[Lucky Luciano]

23. Your post made me finally google "lede" vs "lead."

Tl;dr is that “lead” looks like a better word and “lede” is manufactured jargon.

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2019/lead-vs-lede-roy-peter-clark-has-the-definitive-answer-at-last/


August 13, 2019

I am writing this essay for two reasons:

1. To help dispel (or should I say “dis-spell”) a preference for “lede” over “lead” to describe the beginning or introduction of a news story.

2. To offer a century of wisdom on the purpose of a good news lead and the best way to write one.

My interest in these topics was ignited recently when the Poynter website briefly expressed a preference for “lede,” a spelling I had avoided since my arrival in St. Pete in 1977. For me, the spelling has been “lead.” After all, a well-written first sentence leads the reader into the story. In addition, lede felt like, not jargon, but slang, from the same generation as —30— to represent the end of a story, and “hed” as short for headline.

Snip

[Mz Pip]

9. You'd never know it

Listening to the media it seems like Democrats are soon to be an endangered species, verging on extinct.

[True Blue American]

12. I had to turn

The cable misinformation off

[Achilleaze]

10. All Dems need to run against the whole stinking, lying KGOP

And make them wear their lies, their grifting, and their treason--betrayal of America.

Do not let up. Make them wear their evil shit on their traitor ties.

[former9thward]

11. Rs are ahead in the generic polls by about 4 points.

R 46.4
D 42.2

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

I am not sure where some of the tweet polls in the OP are coming from.

[bigtree]

15. links to the polling sources are right there

...not just 'tweet polls'.

WaPo/ABC is reporting a trend away from the republican lead in their generic congressional polling.

[former9thward]

19. I just go by standard credible polls.

If a trend is there it has not shown up yet. I posted the latest that most go by.

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. It says right in the tweets what the source of the polls is: WaPo, YouGov, Morning Consult

RCP doesn’t conduct polls, it’s an aggregator like 538. RCP’s numbers are an average, and likely contain numerous outliers that favor Republicans, since RCP leans right.

[former9thward]

21. The RCP does not "leans right".

Unless someone is far, far to the left which most Democrats are not.

Of course RCP reports an average. What else would they be?

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. RCP has a well documented rightward bias

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/real-clear-politics/

https://www.thefactual.com/blog/is-realclearpolitics-biased/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics

That bias shows up in its polling averages because of the polls it chooses to include, and the lack weighting given to each poll’s known biases. 538, on the other hand, includes bias weightings in its reporting, and excludes polls that use questionable methodology, have a history of false reporting/push polling, or other invalidating factors.

Edited to add:

Out of 11 polls in RCP’s average, four have an established bias towards the GOP:
Susquehanna (Federalist Society)
Insider Advantage (IIRC, Had Trump winning by double digits the week before the 2020 election)
Trafalgar
Rasmussen

538’s current average includes 13 polls, and excludes Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

[former9thward]

25. 538 shows about a R 3 point advantage.

A whole one point difference than RCP. So I guess they to the right also?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

[Fiendish Thingy]

26. See my updated post

538’s average is far more balanced than RCP’s.

13 polls vs. 11 for RCP, and 538 excludes the Trafalgar and Rasmussen polls that RCP includes and is more transparent about the biases and reliability of each pollster.

[uponit7771]

31. Absolutely does including 538 because they KEEP including polls that are 100% GZP weighted

[lees1975]

30. RealClearPolitics is a right-leaning composite, so if its +4 GOP there, then the Dem leads shown

are probably accurate. You also have to look at the dates, number of respondents and grades of the polls. RCP does an "adjusted average" that skews to the right. 538 just does a running average, but there's three recent polls at the top that show the trend moving toward the Democrats.

That's still too close. But some confrontation on the wackateria social issue lunacy that some Republicans take seriously, and January 6th is going to shift those poll numbers drastically. But the key to winning midterms is getting out the vote.

[former9thward]

34. 538 shows a R 3 point lead.

No real difference between them and RCP

[OneCrazyDiamond]

13. The Press misses the The Oange One.

He made their job fun. Now all they can do this cycle is create a faux horse race for ratings, and talk about legacy fuel prices.

I still think Jan 6th Committee will drop an Oct. Surprise, and we pick up seats in both houses.

GQP is a dying party. Literally, COVID has been rough on them.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. J6 hearings will hopefully nudge things further in Dems direction

Along with the overturn of Roe v Wade this summer.

Remember, this is a generic poll, and doesn’t account for gerrymandering, voter suppression or states where the legislature can reject election results.

A generic poll would need to be Dems +10 before I would feel comfortable.

[W_HAMILTON]

16. I should have known this. You know why?

Because, looking back, I haven't heard any of the talking heads talking about how the polls are all showing that the Democrats are going to get shellacked in November.

Basically when there isn't any bad news for Democrats to report, these people don't bother reporting the good news. They just stop referencing it all together. Just like how Trump's approval was always climbing, yet he pretty much was mired in the low-to-mid 30s. When it was 32 rising to 35, they'd report it was rising. When it was 35 falling back to 32, they'd just ignore it.

It's a shame how much of the media in this country frames the narrative in terms of stories like this.

[Mad_Machine76]

29. May I wish them a very

hope it keeps dropping

[Kingofalldems]

32. Trump's not-so-secret pals aren't liking this one.

Kick and rec.

[senseandsensibility]

35. Well, it doesn't fit the corporate media's narrative

so we won't hear much about it. Still, thanks for the good news!

[texasfiddler]

37. I wonder if the Ukrainian war has anything to do with this?

I can't think of why it would other than the time of the shift.