No, a primary in an all white state is NOT a bellwether.

[onecaliberal]

Because it can’t be repeated enough.

[Celerity]

1. there are no 'all white' states (points for spelling bellwether correctly though) nt

[brush]

3. Iowa and New Hampshire may as well be...

95-97% white. Neither should be the first/close second in early Dem presidential voting as their populations are not representative of the Democratic electorate as a whole at all.

For the republican party...sure.

[Celerity]

4. your figures need updating (I'm not in favour of either IA or NH being near the first primaries btw)

95-97% white.

nope


Iowa (and I am sure there are a shedload of undocumented non white ag/food production workers not counted)

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/state-by-state/iowa-population-change-between-census-decade.html





New Hampshire

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/state-by-state/iowa-population-change-between-census-decade.html

[brush]

5. And we're quibbling over a couple of percentage points?

I think you get my point, at least you should. They're both mostly white states, again, hardly representative of the Democratic electorate.

Maybe being overseas you don't get the significance of that as good showings influence which candidates get increased donations and are thus able to continue on on the primary road. A mostly white electorate can unfairly affect Black and POC candidates ability to keep going.

Those states caucus/primary should be lower down on the primary calendar.

[Celerity]

8. it's more than 'a couple of percentage points' and I am not quibbling, I am posting U.S. Department

of Commerce (who oversees the United States Census Bureau) facts.

Your claim wrongly changed 10.5 to 12.5% of Iowans' ethnicity from PoC to white, and 6.7 to 8.7% of NH from PoC to white.

Maybe being overseas you don't get the significance of that.

Condescend much?

No matter where on the planet I am at, facts matter, plus I already said I am not in favour of either state being amongst the first primaries.

You really are insulting me with your comment implying that a US citizen needs to be presently living in the US to understand basic demographics and their political ramifications. In fact taking your logic to its natural conclusion, perhaps no one on here who lives in the US should be commenting on international events, especially people who have never even lived outside the US (some probably have never even left the US, other than perhaps a quickie to Mexico, Canada, or the Caribbean, etc, if that).

See how ridiculous that sounds?


I at least have lived in the US as an adult as well.

[brush]

10. God, stop overreacting. Your post I responded to...

said there are no all-white states. Go back and look at it. Where did you say "I am not in favour of either state being amongst the first primaries"?

Pls point that out to me. And do you actually thing Iowa being 85% white instead of 95% makes much difference with how well Black or POC candidates do there?

[Celerity]

11. In my very first reply to you

Where did you say "I am not in favour of either state being amongst the first primaries"?

Pls point that out to me.

here:





I have been involved with this very topic of discussion for years here.

here are my choices for the first primaries

(it is not a good idea IMHO to have too many huge states, with massive media costs too early, as smaller candidates will have no chance due to lack of funds, nor is it good to have a lot of Red Southern states as the Dem base in those will often be too conservative to give an accurate national snapshot of the party as a whole, there has to be a balance)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215297863#post26




I also think that caucuses (like Iowa has) are fucked up too, and prevent many people (including PoC) from participating by their very nature.

finally,

here is me talking in depth about Iowa and its politics

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214995543#post65

[brush]

12. Truce. We're on the same page. My apologies.

[Celerity]

13. all good, brush

[onecaliberal]

9. Thanks Brush, you're making my point. It's not even close to being

A representative of American demographics.

[Igirl]

2. What are we talking about here?

What’s the opposite of “ information overload”?

[stopdiggin]

6. first primaries

(caucuses in IA's case)

The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to adopt a plan that will require Iowa Democrats to proactively make the case they should be reinstated to their long-held position.

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina currently have waivers from the national party to hold their nominating contests before the rest of the country. The plan removes all four states from that early voting window and requires them — along with any others that want to hold early contests — to apply for a new waiver.


The committee will evaluate those applications and restructure the early nominating window in a way that members say will be more reflective of the modern party and its current values.

Those values, which are outlined in the resolution adopted Wednesday, include a state’s diversity, its general election competitiveness and the “feasibility” of holding an early contest.

Iowa’s likelihood of being reinstated under that criteria appears tenuous, though Iowa party officials say they plan to make their pitch.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2022/04/13/iowa-democratic-caucus-dnc-calendar-could-lose-first-nation-2024-elections/9498398002/

[stopdiggin]

7. would also like the point out that a 'Super Tuesday'

has an awful lot of 'problems' too.