Debbie Downer here. Would repealing Roe vs Wade REALLY spur Democratic turnout?

[Vogon_Glory]

I wish I could be more optimistic about the backlash against the Supreme Court reactionaries repealing Roe versus Wade. I wish I could believe that angry and motivated voters affected by this decision would register like made, then gather around the polls like swarms of killer bees, not only cutting short the political careers of right-wing hacks in swing districts but in states that have been deep red since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.

I hate to say it, but I am afraid that the groups most likely to be affected by upcoming abortion bans, the young adults, the twenty-somethings, are the demographic that have time and time again broke the hearts of Democratic activists year after year, decade after decade, despite the appeals, despite the warnings, and just didn’t bother to vote.

And no, talk about Gathering of Psychotics/Banana Republican/GQP voting restrictions doesn’t cut it. This demographic was flaking out LONG, LONG BEFORE THEN.

Oh, some of them are indignant now. Some of them might even have, like, you know, actually filled out the forms to register to vote (whether they bothered to mail or file them is another matter).

But will they actually be there, or will they imitate their older sisters and cousins and go ghosting when it’s time to cast their ballots?

I hope I’mwrong, but I feel like I’ve been burned too often.

[MineralMan]

1. Hi There, Debbie.

Well, you might try encouraging people to vote, rather than making them sad and unmotivated.

I mean, it's worth a try, isn't it?

[Vogon_Glory]

3. I will try, I am still giving money

But I suspect that our stopping this right-wing crap is as likely to be done in spite of young voters’ indolence and because the rest of us will have to carry the can for them.

[867-5309.]

17. That would really limit discussion and reflection here, wouldn't it?

Limiting ourselves to topics that please us on the left is something I'd not want to see.

[MineralMan]

19. Not necessarily. Discussion and reflection are perfectly possible

without doom-saying. Truly they are.

Negativism is not productive in any way. It never has been and never will be.

[867-5309.]

28. Then if someone is of the opinion this isn't going to motivate Democrats

Should they not bring it up? Or in a different way?

The OP didn't seem intent on doom-saying as much as an honest expression of doubt and an invitation to discuss.

[MineralMan]

38. And here we are discussing, no?

[Demsrule86]

66. You have to wonder about this sort of thing and why some do this instead of rallying the vote.

Certain folks want the Democratic Party to fail as much as the Republicans do...and I believe some of them are here. I don't know about this poster and I am not saying he is any sort of troll (Russian or domestic). But the constant doom and gloom and refusal to accept any promising news make me wonder about motivation in general.

This will be my last reply on this thread as I am trashing it after this. I have no use for posts like this and think it should be deleted. It seems to me it only serves to demoralize Democrats and dissuade Democrats from voting. After all, why go out on a cold November day and vote if it is a meaningless act and all hope is lost?

I don't think this way. We need to donate, phone bank, go to rallies, and go on social media in order to pound the Republicans into mincemeat this election. We need to do this for our children, all women, and men, (who are also affected) our party, and our Republic which is on life support. Now is not the time for doom and gloom. Really, there never is a time for that.

Fired up and ready to go...let's roll DU

[MineralMan]

67. I agree 100%!

[Cuthbert Allgood]

2. Stop blaming young voters.

Millennials and Gen Z were the generations that solidly voted for and got Biden elected. Gen X was about 50/50 with a minor leaning to Biden. Boomers and older solidly went Trump. So just stop putting this on "young adults."

That said, be ready for Millennials and younger to just be pissed at both parties. And, to a large extent, they have a point. People acting like this is a surprise are crazy.

[Vogon_Glory]

4. I'd be delighted to be surprised

But young Gen X res and young Gen Y’s didn’t give me reason to feel optimistic.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

5. They LITERALLY got Biden elected.

What more do you want from them. If you want to be disappointed, be disappointed in the Boomers turning ridiculously conservative and overwhelmingly voting for Trump.

[hlthe2b]

21. I don't blame young people but shame on you for painting Boomers, millenials, and others with the

same broad strokes. It is offensive to those on DU and those not who have worked for decades to preserve democracy and sanity in our politics. Not one of us can do so alone, so let's stop deriding cohorts and age groups.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

22. I giving you the statistics. Boomers overwhelmingly went Trump. Am I wrong?

And I should "stop deriding cohorts" when I'm responding to a post that did that and I gave the actual statistics. Jesus. I realize everyone is on edge, but that numbers are the numbers. I never said that people on DU voted for Trump. Boomers OVERWHELMINGLY went Trump. Thems just facts.

[hlthe2b]

23. You deride everyone on this board that is not a Gen Z or Alpha. No, those are NOT the facts--

your bigotry aside. He got old white men. So, deal with THAT.

After decades of constituting the majority of voters, Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation made up less than half of the electorate in 2020 (44%), falling below the 52% they constituted in both 2016 and 2018. Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points, while Gen Xers and Boomers were more evenly split in their preferences. Gen Z voters, those ages 23 and younger, constituted 8% of the electorate, while Millennials and Gen Xers made up 47% of 2020 voters. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

[Cuthbert Allgood]

25. I 100% did not "deride everyone." Where do you get that?

I understand there are a lot of Baby Boomers on here. Saying that Boomers went for Trump says nothing about the people on this board.

They are facts.

Please indicate how I in any sense have any bigotry in this discussion. Because that's some bullshit.

[hlthe2b]

27. Boomers and Millenials were evenly split. They did NOT overwhelmingly support Trump. Pew FACTS!

that are inconvenient to your attempt to divide us for whatever reason.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
After decades of constituting the majority of voters, Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation made up less than half of the electorate in 2020 (44%), falling below the 52% they constituted in both 2016 and 2018. Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points, while Gen Xers and Boomers were more evenly split in their preferences. Gen Z voters, those ages 23 and younger, constituted 8% of the electorate, while Millennials and Gen Xers made up 47% of 2020 voters. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

[Cuthbert Allgood]

32. You're looking at the wrong chart on that page.

I will walk back my Boomers overwhelmingly for Trump; I was seeing the Silent Generation numbers in my head. But Boomers were 3% for Trump. Same as the Gen X margin for Biden. But it isn't until you get to Millennials that you have a generation overwhelmingly for Biden.

Your numbers are about the turnout by generation, and, frankly, that cuts against your point. What the breakdown by generation voting tells us is that, if anything, it would be better for Dems if Boomers voted less, not more since they skewed Trump.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

40. Also, I think you meant to say Gen X and Millennials were evenly split.

Though, 3% isn't even, but OK.

[hlthe2b]

52. No. I have twice provided you quote from the summary. Gen Xers and Boomers were more evenly split.

I even bolded the sentence in the first post to you.

After decades of constituting the majority of voters, Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation made up less than half of the electorate in 2020 (44%), falling below the 52% they constituted in both 2016 and 2018. Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points, while Gen Xers and Boomers were more evenly split in their preferences. Gen Z voters, those ages 23 and younger, constituted 8% of the electorate, while Millennials and Gen Xers made up 47% of 2020 voters. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

Boomers DID NOT overwhelmingly elect Donald Trump nor overwhelmingly support him. Evenly split is just that--not to mention there was a decrease with die-off in 2020 from 2016.

If you detest/mistrust everyone that comes from Millenial, GenX and especially Boomer (Obama) or Silent (Biden) generations then that is on you. Such bigotry is not ok in my book so put me on " ignore" if you wish to continue to do so. But, you need to know that there are plenty of them here on DU and it will not just be me calling you out if you elect not to be a lot less accusatory without the facts.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

55. I said I was wrong about Boomers. But you initially said Millennials and Boomers were evenly split.

That was the mistake I pointed out. I didn't imply it was nefarious.

And it wasn't actually 50/50 even. Boomers 3% for Trump and Gen X 3% for Biden. Which is pretty even, but not exactly.

And, in your last paragraph, you again include Millennials (there are two Ns), but that's not my point. They were fully voting for Biden. And I don't detest Boomers and Silent. They just voted for Trump. Which is the numbers. My wife is a Boomer (I'm barely Gen X) and she voted Biden. I fully realize a 3% lean to Trump doesn't mean all Boomers are Trump voters. Jesus.

[hlthe2b]

57. The quote which I've provided 3x: Gen Xers and Boomers were MORE evenly split in their preference

After decades of constituting the majority of voters, Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation made up less than half of the electorate in 2020 (44%), falling below the 52% they constituted in both 2016 and 2018. Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points, while Gen Xers and Boomers were more evenly split in their preferences. Gen Z voters, those ages 23 and younger, constituted 8% of the electorate, while Millennials and Gen Xers made up 47% of 2020 voters. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

Do you NOT really know the difference between MORE EVENLY SPLIT versus EXACTLY EVENLY SPLIT? Nor the difference between overwhelmingly support or majority support or even largely support versus "more evenly split?"

I'm done. This is ridiculous.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

61. Yes, but look at this post of yours

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16662103

You say Millennials. I'm sure it was an innocent mistake. Not sure why you are digging in on that.

I do know the difference between "more evenly split" and "evenly split." And for the purposes of this discussion, the 3% swing to Trump in Boomers is important. They are turning out well which means more votes for Trump.

But the original point is that Millennials turned out for Biden. Boomers didn't. Nothing you have posted refutes that.

[hlthe2b]

63. I stopped responding to those whose every comment is "yes, but" a very long time ago

[Cuthbert Allgood]

65. OK. I will be more direct. YOU MADE A MISTAKE IN YOUR SUBJECT LINE

You meant to type Gen X and typed Millennials instead. I tried to point it out nicely, but you just fucking doubled down on your not making a mistake. Is it a big thing? No. Is it confusing to keep track of what point you are trying to make when you make a mistake like that? Yes. It's hard to know how to respond. And you misspell Millennials every time. And you continue to toss Millennials incorrectly into your arguments. Get it together.

I thought my "Yes, but look at this post of yours where you made a mistake" was a kinder more gentler way of saying you don fucked up, but you seem to prefer the latter.

[yardwork]

43. As a boomer, I agree with this assessment.

For all the yapping Boomers did in the 60s and 70s, as a group we sure turned out to be pretty conservative. (And I witnessed some of that in real time, as "campus radicals" graduated and took jobs on Madison Avenue.)

[Cuthbert Allgood]

44. It's going to happen. I get it. My generation (Gen X) is moving more right, too.

I mean, we're the generation of Rage Against the Machine and now a lot of us are like, meh, maybe the machine isn't that bad. But it just gets tough seeing everyone dump on the Millennials and Gen Z like they are voting Republican at this point.

[yardwork]

46. I noticed a rightward tilt in myself in my middle years.

I think the responsibilities of raising children, grappling with the truth of mortality, thinking about saving for retirement... the fact is that most of us live IN the machine. We're not living off the land, ruggedly independent. Things are complicated.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

47. I teach high school, and probably every few weeks I grapple with BEING the machine.

I mean, I do my best to not be that (which is semi-easy because I'm an English teacher and I get to pick the novels we read), but the cognitive dissonance is there.

[yardwork]

56. Thank you for your service.

Teachers are on the front lines - you are the ones dealing with this crisis, trying to help and educate the young, and you're underpaid, attacked by loonies, disregarded by the ultra-rich and those who, frankly, have the privilege to sit in our homes and pass judgement. THANK YOU.

And I apologize for earlier saying that you were making a lot of assumptions. I'm guilty of it myself.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

62. It's all good. I thought we were on the same side on that and I was miscommunicating.

We are going to see a lot of teacher shortages if what I'm hearing from people is right. I'm less than 10 years to retirement (assuming I can pay for health insurance for the few years before Medicare), so I'm going to stick this out for the pension, but a lot of younger teachers that can still make retirement work with a career shift are peacing out. It's going to be rough.

[Budi]

31. They also joined the campaign that threw the 2016 electorate to Trump.

My faith in them is unsure.

Btw there is a Mill/GenZ organization that is gathering to oppose their own. They are young R's who are completely on board with ending Roe.


Maybe start paying attention to your own Mill/GenZ opposition before Burning Down the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party was THERE in 2016, warnings sounding loud & clear. We shouldn't have lost those 3 key Electoral States by that slim margin.
I heard not one word of concern for the loss of Rights & the urgency of protecting Roe from that demographic when it was all on the line.

They campaign against Her, in fact

[Cuthbert Allgood]

42. Um, no

Look at the chart on this post of mine.

In 2016, Millennials and Gen Z overwhelmingly went Clinton. It's not on them.

[Budi]

48. We lost the 3 key Electoral States. Stein's votes were equal to the #'s we needed

Fact is not one of the groups opposing HRC ever mention the SC nor the urgency of that loss. They never challenged Stein either.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

50. Well, even if that is the SOLE reason for the loss

do you have any statistics to pin that on younger voters.

And to whittle down a national campaign to "STEIN" is just foolish. Lots of mistakes were made, but I apparently can't talk about them here because I got a hide for mentioning one of them.

[Budi]

54. As would I.

After the Burn it all Down crowd bought the cool slogan, I have little faith in them not buying the next cool slogan too.

Later...

[yardwork]

41. Very good points.

[secondwind]

6. Two words:

TRUST WOMEN....... they will come out IN DROVES from now on.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

7. I'm sure Sarandon thinks this repeal will spark her revolution.

To the barricades!

Or is it To Barbados!

Something.

Let's hope more Democrats are motivated to vote.

[Ilsa]

8. Women should be militant about Abortion access through menopause.

Women in their 40s seek abortion because their other children might be grown and gone and the woman doesn't want to start over -- she finally has more freedom. The likelihood of genetic age-related disabilities increases substantially, too. I have met women who aborted early (8 weeks or less) because they couldn't stand the thought of raising another family.

[bigtree]

9. counting on it

...needs more welly.

Link to tweet

[Duncan Grant]

10. You should film yourself reading this and post it to TikTok.

You’ll be famous.

[Vogon_Glory]

33. If I had a speaking voice like Ron Johnson's

Who may be a horrible reactionary Republican twit who ought to be fired by his constituents like a 122 mm artillery shell towards permanent political obscurity, I just might. But for some reason or other God gave Vladimir Putin’s favorite Wisconsin senatorial sock-puppet a fine speaking voice, which I don’t have.

[yardwork]

45. Duncan, I have missed you!

[Duncan Grant]

59. I should start my mornings with The Prayer of St. Francis.

I was gonna say, you wouldn’t believe some of the things that get posted here — but actually, you would!

[Raven123]

11. I agree with you. We need to push the fact that Roe is not the only decision based on privacy

[empedocles]

12. This Roe issue, with alito as very bad guy target, with 'no marital rape' inflammation,

compounded by upcoming hearings and trials - just might create a momenttum that is big for November.

[That is my hope anyway]

[ChazII]

13. Placing signs in my front yard.

I live by a high school and some of the students will be able to vote for the first time later this year. My area is now in a new congressional district and I am hoping that name recognition will help.

[867-5309.]

14. I think it motivates both sides, really

Who it resonates with the most is TBD.

[mucifer]

15. I think more people will blame

President Biden on high costs of everything and abortion won’t be a priority.

[Budi]

49. 👍 K & R

[TwilightZone]

16. Young voters were a primary reason why Biden won

"We estimate that young people turned out at a higher rate in 2020 than in 2016, and their impact—especially youth of color's overwhelming support for Biden—was decisive in key races across the country."

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020

[Budi]

36. And they've been on board blaming him since.

GND!
STUDENT LOANS!
NO SANCTION FOR RUSSIA!
NO NATO!

These are the people voting in Congress that GenZ/Mills are supporting. The ones who have since elected, voted against Biden more than for.

Check their voting records. Decide if those they voted into office, are actually with their vote for Biden , or against theirr vote for Biden.

Be smarter than some were back 2016.
For the future survival of us all.

[Emile]

18. It is not helping when our pols are endorsing anti-choice candidates.

It could get out the vote, if our pols would endorse choice candidates.

[hlthe2b]

20. There are activist young people like the Stoneman Douglas survivors.

So, I do not count them out. One can only hope they can bring their peers along because our approaching them is likely to go nowhere. Now that their dire future (abortion rights, civil rights, LGBTQ rights, climate change) is no longer a mere possibility but around the corner, I have to think any lingering apathy will change.

If not, this mature adult is not going to stop her activism, but it is time to hand over the baton. Those who want to blame every generation except the youngest can just stop. I've earned my creds multiple times over. That said, by the time the worst comes to pass for this generation, I may well no longer be here. So, I can only do what I can. But, I won't stop.

[AntivaxHunters]

24. It doesn't help when we're endorsing anti-choice male Dems

over young progressive pro-choice female progressives.

What sort of message does that send exactly to young voters & women everywhere?

[FSogol]

26. While you are correct to worry, worry about all age groups, not just the youngest. Over the years

how many times have we said, "It is all about the Supreme Court" only to end up with a small turnout. That can't just be blamed on the youngest voters.

[PlanetBev]

34. There was always an implied threat about the SC

This time it’s real, right up in the National face. It’s about as tangible as it can get. No “It’ll
never happen” or “They say that every election year.”

[FSogol]

37. It was real all the other times. Poor Democratic turnout in the past led up to this point. n/t

[Budi]

51. True. That is exactly what happened in Obama's term.

[Amishman]

29. I'm usually a buzzkill on here, but even I think it would be a huge boost to our turnout

more importantly, I'd expect it to swing independents. That is even bigger for us as its a huge pool that currently leaning away from us based on polls. Each independent flipped is worth two increased Democratic voter turnouts.

[PlanetBev]

30. Keep in mind

The official decision will come out by June 30th. Then, shit gets real and all hell breaks out in the states. I have every confidence this will get a lot of exposure until November and drive high Democratic turnout.

[Midnight Writer]

58. Exactly. Wait until we start seeing stories of women dying from problem pregnancies

when they could have been saved with an abortion.

Or stories of 13 year old girls forced to give birth to their molester's baby.

Or a woman prosecuted for having a miscarriage.

These things will happen and innocent people will suffer.

Hopefully, the truth will be televised and everyone will see it.

[Mad_Machine76]

35. We will have to wait and see of course

but Republicans certainly are worried.

[yardwork]

39. I was young once and didn't vote.

I was old enough to vote against Reagan in 1980 and didn't get around to it. In retrospect, it might be the single most important election of my lifetime to date.

I listened to MSM and Republicans who said Jimmy Carter was weak and so I didn't bother to vote. Four years later I was informed enough to get myself registered and vote against Reagan but it was too late, he was already in office, his acting abilities made him enormously popular, and the damage was done.

I'm going to help GOTV but I won't judge young people .

[FSogol]

60. Not me, I voted the minute I could (Carter). I worked on local campaigns from the age of 16 or so.

I passed out flyers, picked up stuff from printing companies, and delivered yard signs. The signs had to be stapled on a wooden stake and pounded into the ground with mallets.

I've never missed an election and neither have my sons.

[dalton99a]

53. Young voters will turn out if motivated

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Did-Beto-O-Rourke-help-fuel-a-huge-increase-in-14067697.php

Beto O’Rourke may have lost his U.S. Senate race in 2018, but he still sees something to crow about. The data available on TargetSmart’s website includes final figures for 2018. It lists 118,383 Texans between the ages of 18 and 29 casting early ballots in the 2014 general election, compared to 674,027 casting early ballots in 2018.

The 2018 figure for early voting was about 5.7 times higher than the figure for 2014, and that’s close to the sixfold increase that would equate to a 500-percent bump.

Other data from 2018, from Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, found that the rate of overall youth turnout in Texas ⁠— not just early voting ⁠— roughly tripled over 2014. That’s even higher than the increase found by TargetSmart.

The Tufts study found that O’Rourke saw his biggest levels of support in counties with high proportions of young voters, especially Latino youth.

[CrispyQ]

64. I trust women are motivated.

It's men I'm not sure about. Too many are raised with the idea that birth control & abortion are women's issues.