From 0-100, what is the likelihood that the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys...?
...organized the attack upon our Capitol all by themselves, without the organization and coordination of someone higher up in our government?
Granted, any evidence that we see is likely circumstantial. But more people are convicted with circumstantial evidence than by direct evidence. What are the chances these "insurrectionists" planned it all by themselves?
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https://www.britannica.com/topic/circumstantial-evidence
circumstantial evidence,
in law, evidence not drawn from direct observation of a fact in issue. If a witness testifies that he saw a defendant fire a bullet into the body of a person who then died, this is direct testimony of material facts in murder, and the only question is whether the witness is telling the truth. If, however, the witness is able to testify only that he heard the shot and that he arrived on the scene seconds later to see the accused standing over the corpse with a smoking pistol in his hand, the evidence is circumstantial; the accused may have been shooting at the escaping killer or merely have been a bystander who picked up the weapon after the killer had dropped it.
The notion that one cannot be convicted on circumstantial evidence is, of course, false. Most criminal convictions are based on circumstantial evidence, although it must be adequate to meet established standards of proof.
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No planning there.