If you want to understand why MTG is going to win in Nov, look at the numbers.

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[hlthe2b]

1. Based on the numbers turning out in a primary election? Really?

[brooklynite]

3. Yes, really.

Look at the scale of votes. If anything, the Democratic participation level was probably higher because they had a competitive Primary race. Add to which there’s no sign of Republican opposition to her in the GOP primary..

I make a habit of crunching a lot of data on elections, and everything points to another MTG blowout. What suggests an alternative result?

[hlthe2b]

8. FLowers was the Dem overwhelming favorite. MTG had five primary opponents.

Do I think MTG will win? Yes, sadly. But the numbers voting in the primary do not directly predict General Election turnout. In fact they say very little about independents nor motivated Dems.

[brooklynite]

16. Point 1: Independents can vote in the GA Primary

Point 2. Why would they vote differently than in 2020?

[hlthe2b]

22. Well, why did they vote in overwhelming Trump-counties to renominate Raffensburger & the

current AG--both of whom Trump supported?

MTG will be under a microscope for the next six months. Some of those less extreme R's and indies may just get a belly full.

Not to mention there is no evidence that Indies were more motivated to vote in a primary election any more than Dems were and certainly not for MTG. Six months to go. Insanity may remain, or fate (or cooler heads) may intercede.

[brooklynite]

36. Statewide move by Dems to skew Republican Primary results...

But there aren’t enough Dems in MTGs district to make a difference in Nov.

[Whiskeytide]

4. It is a primary, but those are ...

… pretty significant numbers. There is a reason the American Muckrakers PAC targeted Boebert instead of Greene.

[hlthe2b]

7. Greene had five challengers. Flowers was the overwhelming favorite for the Dems.

[Whiskeytide]

25. I really like Flowers. And Greene got about 30% ...

… less votes in this primary than she got in 2020. (But that was an open primary and now she’s an incumbent). But even if her GE numbers are also down 30%, Flowers will still need to at least double Ausdal’s numbers to beat her. I know he abandoned the race before the election, but that’s still a pretty tall order. To put it in numbers, Flowers needs to get at least 170,000 votes to even keep it close.

I hope I’m wrong, though. I really do.

[onenote]

9. No. Based on the results of elections over the past 10 years

Here are the vote totals for the Republican candidate in the 14th District in recent elections:
2012: 73%
2014:100%
2016: 100%
2018: 76.5%
2020: 74.7%

Every Republican candidate for president or senator has gotten more than 70 percent of the vote in the district.

The only way Greene was going to be ousted was if, as was the case with Cawthorn, the repubs turned on her and voted for a primary opponent. Which clearly didn't happen.

In 2020, Greene won the republican primary with 40 percent of the vote and then got nearly 75% of the vote in the general. How don't care how good the Democratic candidates ads are, this is an unwinnable district -- has been for years.

[hlthe2b]

11. Not my point. My point is directly concluding this from the primary voter numbers is BS.

I agree with the prior election trends (and ACTUAL voter registration numbers) being predictive, but using primary numbers does not make the point. It says nothing about independents, for one thing.

[onenote]

13. The overarching point is that this is an unwindable district.

[hlthe2b]

15. Likely unwinnable, maybe. But the primary results are not determinative.

[onenote]

20. Georgia doesn't have party registration and the primary is open

So it does account for "independent' voters.

Quite frankly, any money contributed to Greene's Democratic opponent would be far better directed to Warnock and/or Abrams.

[hlthe2b]

23. Six months until the General. We shall see. MTG's big mouth may ultimately do her in.

And, I see no evidence for Indies being overwhelmingly motivated to vote in a primary--any more than Dems would have been in that district.

[NoMoreRepugs]

2. 31,873 BatShitCrazedLoon supporters of a BatShitCrazedLoon.

SAD.

[walkingman]

5. Time to stop blaming politicians and blame the voters - MTG, like Trump speaks their language.

[Ilsa]

6. Don't give in to hopelessness. M. Flowers has been running

wonderful ads.

I wouldn't want to live in that area of Georgia, even though it's gorgeous. And especially if I was an ethnic or racial minority or Jewish or Muslim.

[brooklynite]

10. It isn't a matter of hopelessness, it's a matter of priorities

Our goal isn’t to defeat MTG, it’s to hold the House. That means focusing on the 15 or so Republican seats that actually ARE vulnerable. Ask yourself why conservatives don’t waste money on candidate running against Nancy and AOC?

[Claustrum]

17. It's not about being hopeful or not.

It's basically like saying AOC is going to lose her seat in a deep blue district. That's not going to happen. Some people are automatically in once they get past their own party primary, MTG and AOC seats are some of those.

[CottonBear]

14. We need to GOTV statewide to win Gov & all state constitutional offices in Nov.

Marcus is helping to do that. We need every Democratic vote up & down the ballot.

🍑🗳🇺🇸🍑🗳🇺🇸

[Whiskeytide]

27. THAT is the right thinking. Even if Flowers loses ...

… to Greene, if he motivates every Dem in his district to come out and vote, that helps immensely in the state wide races.

[CottonBear]

32. All state offices, congressional reps, state house & senate, judges, PSC + Warnock are on the ballot

GOTV

[Arazi]

18. She lives in one of the reddest districts in the US

And she’s one of the Republicans top fundraisers.

She’s going to be with us for a very long time, until that District goes purple.

It might happen. We saw Henry Hyde’s district turn purple and Dems finally moved in/won that seat in sufficient numbers but it took many years.

[yardwork]

19. Correct. That district is unwinnable for Democrats at this time.

We need to build a stronger Democratic coalition through wins in more competitive districts, so that representatives like MTG become outliers. She's only one representative. There are much more competitive districts.

[CottonBear]

21. As James Carville says, "You're a loser until you're not."

We must keep running campaigns in every district in every election.

The demographics of Georgia are changing rapidly. We will win, if not this time, then the next time or the next time.

[brer cat]

26. +1

It is very sad to see a ballot with so many offices only offering a republican. We need democrats running for every office. You are correct that our demographics are changing rapidly.

[CottonBear]

28. I had a Democrat in every race on my Georgia primary ballot.

We re-elected our progressive mayor, Kelly Girtz, in Athens-Clarke County after a dirty campaign by an opponent financed by out of county Republicans.

[brer cat]

29. I'm in a very red district, although we do have a Dem mayor.

[CottonBear]

30. Hang in there and GOTV for the general election in November 2022!

[no_hypocrisy]

24. My theory is that MTG gets her district's votes because

her constituency enjoys her big mouth, how she sticks it to both Democrats and non-MAGA Republicans. IOW, she legitimizes them to the rest of the country with her representation.

[Demsrule86]

31. You are right about the district. But there are still some Democrats in Paulding County.

In fact, if you look at the numbers. Biden won Georgia by reducing the GOP margins in places like Paulding County. You can win statewide races that way. Georgia is gerrymandered. Now unless we stop demonstrating our 'purity' and gerrymander those states we control, we are going to lose badly and not just elections but probably our Republics. I suggest you take a careful look at the districts...and voting laws in Georgia and elsewhere. When you are a Democrat in Georgia, you often don't bother to vote because you think it won't matter.

I lived there and I know this. But if you can convince people it matters and hit every district with the intention of shaving off votes, you can win statewide. That is our only choice to win places like Georgia. That should be our policy. And can we please find a way to protect the House in places like New York? It would be nice if we could fight back by gerrymandering our own states since clearly, we can't get the courts to do anything.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

33. Yes. She represents a predominantly white, christo-fascist district.

She lives in Rome, Georgia. See below.

[PRETZEL]

34. I think he's right,

there are certain districts that Democrats won't win (and vice versa) given the geography and demographics. That, I don't believe is really the issue.

The issue, at least to me, is giving credence to them. Whether it's her, Cawthorn, Bobert, Gaetz,, I really think the House Republican Leadership has no issues with them. They're serving a purpose.

Remember, aside from Gaetz, these were all freshman representatives from safe districts. Leadership doesn't give a rats ass about them because they know that'll always be an R district. So they trot them out, allow them to be as assholish as they want and it allows the reps with more seniority who have the same views the cover to not have to publicly speak their views.

They're the shiny objects that gets everyone's attention. That's really all they are.

[dawg]

35. Your conclusion is correct, but your reasoning is faulty.

Primary votes aren't a good measure of a district's possibilities in Georgia - especially this year.

Stacey Abrams was running unopposed at the top of the ticket. Senator Warnock had no serious challenger either.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Trump-endorsed candidates for Governor and Secretary of State promised to overturn Georgia's election results in 2024, if necessary, in order to steal Georgia's electoral votes for a Republican, probably Trump.

Many, many Democrats voted in Georgia's open Republican primaries this time around in order to prevent that. I'm one of them.

And as a result, David Perdue isn't getting anywhere near the governor's mansion, and it looks like Brad Raffensperger will keep his job as well.

And an example has been set for the rest of the country that there is no penalty to pay for defending Democracy against Trump.

But MTG will win in November because she represents a district that is redder than a baboon's ass. The only realistic way of taking her down is through the Republican primaries.

[Midnight Writer]

37. One caveat: "aren't enough democratic voters" should read "not enough responsible voters".

Putting this person in Congress is insanely irresponsible.