Fetterman leads Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race: poll

[AZProgressive]

Democratic Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is leading Republican Mehmet Oz by 6 points in their race for the state’s open Senate seat, according to a new AARP poll.

The survey’s results show Fetterman with 50 percent support among likely voters to the celebrity physician’s 44 percent. Fetterman also has a slightly smaller lead among likely voters aged 50 and older, 49 percent to 46 percent.

The lieutenant governor, who suffered a stroke last month, has a significantly higher net favorability rating. He is viewed favorably by 46 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent for a net 10 percent rating. Oz is viewed favorably by 30 percent of voters and unfavorably by 63 percent for a net of negative 33 percent.

A USA Today Network-Suffolk University poll released last week showed Fetterman with a 9-point lead over Oz.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3533557-fetterman-leads-oz-in-pennsylvania-senate-race-poll/

[SoCalDavidS]

1. I Realize He's Still Recovering

But that lead is going to start shrinking if he doesn't get out there. People need to see that he is healthy and back to his former self, otherwise they will worry about his condition.

[rogue emissary]

9. It's already shrinking, Fetterman was up by 9 in another poll.

According to the below post. From last week.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216817260

[Demsrule86]

34. When Fetterman was in the primary, negative posts about Fetterman were somewhat OK.

However, now candidate Fetterman is the only one that can give Democrats the Senate seat and likely save the majority. The doom and gloom posted by you on multiple posts is disquieting and since Lamb will not be the nominee...I have to wonder what is your point? You still remind me of someone...can't quite put my finger on it.

But I digress. Fetterman is up...and hasn't even begun campaigning and the polls you breathlessly site as evidence that he is dropping...is within the margin of error as compared to the one and only other poll...I have to wonder about your motivations here. Again, what is the point?

[Frostlight]

38. I appreciate the gloomers because they tend to get inundated with the more optimistic reality

...that we all need to be aware of. It also doesn't hurt to have the motivation to do more.

I hope Fetterman pins that quack's Trumpery right to his forehead. Oz needs to go down in flames as an embarrassment to not only the medical field, but to the principles of enlightenment.

[BumRushDaShow]

51. "Oz needs to go down in flames as an embarrassment "

Link to tweet

John Fetterman
@JohnFetterman
·
Follow
Giggle. 🤭
Image
11:33 AM · Jun 23, 2022

[rogue emissary]

53. Poster had a concern, I saw that concern may be materializing.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. "if he doesn't get out there"

He has been to all 67 counties here - TWICE. There is no way that Oz has since he's not from this state and is merely squatting here.

Link to tweet

John Fetterman
@JohnFetterman
·
Follow
Image
Axios
@axios
In a general election pivot, Mehmet Oz is quietly shifting his campaign branding away from embrace of Donald Trump.
https://trib.al/SllhBmm

He was out shopping at Costco last week and met someone there who tweeted about the chance meeting -

Link to tweet

John Fetterman
@JohnFetterman
·
Follow
Great meeting you, Mary. 🥰
Mary Spano 🇺🇸
@MarySpano
Just a guy shopping at Costco this morning. @JohnFetterman looks great, feels great and is leading in the polls. Our next PA Senator!
Image
12:18 PM · Jun 17, 2022

[Probatim]

15. That's the Costco in Homestead. Braddock is only a few minutes away.

He walks the bike trail there all the time.

[BumRushDaShow]

20. Cool. He tweeted a short video clip of himself doing that "walk"

a couple weeks ago!

Link to tweet

John Fetterman
@JohnFetterman
·
Follow
Little update from before the rain started this morning 👇
2:42 PM · Jun 7, 2022

[Demsrule86]

39. Hey BRDS...you know I go to Free Republic to mostly watch them suffer....and boy

are some suffering...sure you have the 'we got this' posts but there are far more on different threads of these sorts of posts...Please note the spelling errors belong to the Freeper and as I am quoting, I did not correct them...yes I know it needed a 'sic' but I am too lazy and he made too many mistakes!

"Not gonna happen OZ Is a fraud and a turd… completely off brand for PA ane never had a chance in hell at statewide win in this stare…

PA coters showed themselves for the cowards they are, then for the first time in over 4 decades they actually had a chance to have a candidate that actually was conservative and not owned by the establishment and money men… and they blew it they allowed themselves to be scared back onto the establishment plantation by the fear mongering swamp that is the establishment GoP of PA around “electability”. And now get to watch one of their chosen “electable” candidates crash and burn.

"I will have no part of putting a fraud and globalist into the senate… none. I have dutifully voted for every piece of crap the chess pool party of PA has put forward since 1990 when I was first allowed to vote.. we have worked hard to get these people out over thr last five years I will have no part of putting another one in..

Enjoy watching the crap fest that will be OZ’s absolute humiliating defeat. I tried to tell you, Fetterman will eat him for breakfast and crap him out by lunch, but oh no…

OZ and MCCormick individually spent more each on this primary than was spent combined by both candidates in the last general election for senate here, and couldn’t get more than 31% of thr gop primary voters… but the cowardly foolish voters here think he’s “electable”. Or worse yet thay should he win he’ll actually care, answer to, or give a crap about what is best for the people of, or the star of PA?!?! You are fools…just be another tool of the Uniparty suckling on the same tit of cash and corruption..

Conservatism actually had a chance this cycle, and you cowards blew it, biting into lies and manipulated by fear."

Fetterman is the best candidate we could have...clearly and unapologetically from PA...one of them. I do so enjoy the suffering...the freeper is clearly from PA and knows what is about to happen.

Cheers!

[BumRushDaShow]

42. More and more I think their brains are a tangled mess of short-circuiting wires

IRONY ALERT - the GOP candidates who "won" (Oz/Mastriano) were NOT the "establishment"-backed ones. In fact, the "establishment" GOP were furiously trying to knock both of them off the ballot.

[Demsrule86]

44. That is the truth! But a dual citizen candidate who is also a Muslim is not appealing to most

Republicans...worst candidate to run against Fetterman. I think McCormick would have had a better shot as some who didn't like him would have voted for him as he is not as offensive to them as Oz is...

[BumRushDaShow]

48. I know

That is what boggles the mind the most.

But I think they may skip this Senate seat and try to focus on taking Bob Casey's Senate seat in 2024 (which seemed to be the gist of the rumors that were flying during the primary).

[Demsrule86]

49. Yeah good luck with that. Casey is a sitting Senator and his Dad was beloved governor.

[peggysue2]

33. Exactly right!

He has been to all 67 counties here - TWICE. There is no way that Oz has since he's not from this state and is merely squatting here.


Fetterman has put in the work with meet and greets across the state. Does he need to get out there in the flesh again? Of course. But it's not as if his recuperative time is a knife in the heart politically or that PA voters don't know who he is or what he stands for, as in:

Every County. Every Vote.

Oz is an opportunist and carpetbagger who is not popular with PA's MAGA crowd or Indies. He's now decided to eliminate the Trump branding for the GE. Guess he thinks it's a little too toxic.

Will the polls tighten as we get closer to Election Day? No doubt. But the chances of Fetterman winning this thing is 65.3% to 34.7%, according to Race for the WH analysis. They're predicting a 3.8 pt spread in Fetterman's favor in the actual election.

The other race to watch is Shapiro vs Mastriano (a nightmare nominee) for the Governor's seat.

Peggysue's prediction? We're going to win this thing for Pennsylvania and the country. I didn't move from Tennessee to see my old stomping grounds turn red. Saw enough of this MAGA crap in the South to last a lifetime.

Btw, John Fetterman looks great in that Costco pic.

[BumRushDaShow]

52. When he did his "listening tour"

I was exhausted just following what he was doing with that as he was trying to get a reading on where PAers stood with the subject of legalized marijuana (even more relevant now that it is legalized for recreational use in NJ).

And people forget that although many of the small population rural counties continue to be "painted red", there are ALWAYS Democrats living in them who get forgotten... But he found them (and any others willing to express their concerns and listen to some possible solutions).

[JI7]

29. I think he should rest and try to get better during the SUmmer

but find different ways to stay in public and engaged with people .

Do Zoom Q & As and Speeches .

Send supporters to hold events for him .

After SUmmer he can start getting back out and people will pay attention more then anyways.

Also Democrats need to keep going after Oz .

[Demsrule86]

45. From what I have heard, he will begin campaigning in July and has surrogates out there

already. And Fetterman has made some use of online campaigning...using social media against Oz. And Fetterman is a master at this.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. I am not surprised by any of those polls.

Fetterman is by far the better, smarter, more honest and competent candidate.

And he will win his Senate race.

[a kennedy]

8. Damn right CaliforniaPeggy.......

I love him.

[FloridaBlues]

3. Hopefully the Doctors give him the ok very soon even on a limited basis

His voters need to see he’s ok health wise. Otherwise those points will erode further.

[Demsrule86]

40. He will begin campaigning in July...

[TheRealNorth]

4. Only poll that matters is in November

[Voltaire2]

5. And of course the concern trolls are all over this.

Just gotta find that dark cloud to wrap around the silver lining.

[sheshe2]

12. Your post is uncalled for.

Calling fellow DUers "concern trolls". Trolls.

I may not love Fetterman, yet we need this seat. I am not from PA, yet will support him. He has not been seen since the beginning of May. There are tweets, yet anyone can tweet on someone's account. When an election this important is at stake then it is in fact a concern that he is absent. That doesn't a concern troll make.

I wish him good health. It is time he comes out for his supporters to see him.

[brooklynite]

16. Would you like to point to an example?

I'm sure we'd all be interested.

[Polybius]

26. I remember in 2016 all of the "Thank you for your concern" posts here

Last edited Thu Jun 23, 2022, 12:17 PM - Edit history (1)

If anyone was even the slightest bit nervous, God forbid that they said it, otherwise you were slammed with "Thank you for your concern." Turns out that the concerned were right.

[RobinA]

32. I Remember It Well

as I was a 2016 « concern troll. » I block anyone who makes concern troll accusations. If someone thinks a poster is overly concerned they can cite reasons rather than calling names.

[Demsrule86]

41. I don't object to genuine concern. But when I see facts twisted by some

(not saying you, your post is not about twisting facts as there are no facts that I can see), I have to wonder about their motivations. And as for 2016, my take is the abuse of Hillary here and elsewhere continued throughout the entire General...and a race we should have won was lost.

And the folks who made these sort of 'concern' posts did in fact contribute to Hillary's loss in 16. So you see the question you should consider is this. Did the concern posts do any good at all in terms of helping elect Hillary? I say no. Such posts discourage voters. Did the concern posts everywhere on social media actually harm Hillary? I say they did and the result was Donald Trump. Let's not make the same mistake now...and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Demsrule86]

35. Yep, some may take issue with your words, but one wonders when the primary is over why

such negative posts...from those we know supported another candidate. Fetterman is the only way we win the seat...so I say let's all climb aboard the Fetterman train...fired up and ready to go. I would have done the same for Lamb. And I question the motives of folks who look at a poll within the margin of error of an earlier poll and breathlessly announce Fetterman is declining in the polls. It isn't true and spreads doom and gloom.

[NJCher]

6. may this lead continue

and increase!

[Demsrule86]

36. Amen sister. We have a chance to defeat the GOP and put a progressive in a Senate seat!!!!!

[Claustrum]

7. Nice to see that 50%.

Keep it up and lets get this one.

[Demovictory9]

10. Nice to hear

[TheRickles]

13. Has anyone ever won a statewide race with a net favorability of -33%?

Seems like a huge hole.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. As a somewhat related comparison and answer

When the then-incumbent Tom Corbett (R) was running for re-election for governor here in 2014, a PPP poll that came out around the same time ahead of the election (give or take - was done the same month as this current Fetterman/Oz Senate poll), you had this result for him vs Tom Wolf (D), who eventually won and broke a 50-year precedent (starting from the time governors could run for more than 1 term) of incumbent governors "always" winning re-election -

PPP survey finds Wolf leads Corbett by 25

Democrat Tom Wolf holds a 55 percent to 30 percent lead among registered voters, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling released Tuesday.


by Thomas Fitzgerald
Published Jun 3, 2014

Pennsylvania's race for governor is shaping up at the beginning as a potential blowout, with Democrat Tom Wolf leading incumbent Gov. Corbett by 25 percentage points, according to a new poll released Tuesday. Wolf leads Corbett 55 percent to 30 percent, the survey by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found.

Only 27 percent of voters approve of the job Corbett is doing, compared to 58 percent who disapprove. Wolf has a net +27 favorability rating in the poll, with 47 percent of voters seeing him favorably and 20 percent viewing the York businessman in negative terms.

"Things aren't getting any better for Tom Corbett," Dean Debnam, president of the Raleigh, N.C.-based PPP, said in a statement. "His approval numbers are as poor as they've ever been, and Tom Wolf is starting out as an unusually well-liked candidate for governor even on top of that."

PPP surveyed 835 registered Pennsylvania voters from May 30 to June 1 using an automated response system. Eighty percent of the interviews were conducted over the telephone, and 20 percent over the internet to account for voters who do not have a landline phone.

(snip)

https://www.inquirer.com/philly/blogs/big_tent/PPP-survey-find-Wolf-blowing-out-Corbett-early.html

Similarly that same month of June 2014, Quinnipiac had a poll -

Two Polls Show Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett In Big Trouble

Doug Mataconis · Wednesday, June 4, 2014 · 5 comments

(snip)

Second, this morning Quinnipiac released a poll showing Wolf leading Corbett by 20 points:

Apparently unscathed by a bruising Democratic primary battle, businessman Tom Wolf, the Democratic challenger for Pennsylvania governor, tops Gov. Tom Corbett by a commanding 53 – 33 percent and outscores the Republican incumbent on every measure in the survey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 52 – 33 percent Wolf lead in a February 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, conducted before the primary bloodletting began in earnest. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 55 – 35 percent of the job Gov. Corbett is doing – his lowest net score ever – and say 58 – 33 percent that he does not deserve to be reelected. The governor gets a negative 29 – 50 percent favorability rating, compared to Wolf’s 46 – 14 percent favorability, with 38 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

Only 40 percent of voters say the Keystone State’s economy is “excellent” or “good” while 60 percent say “not so good” or “poor.” Only 23 percent of voters say they and their families are “better off” than they were four years ago, while 27 percent say they are “worse off,” with 49 percent who say they are “about the same.”

“The election is five months away, but Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett looks like easy prey for Democratic challenger Tom Wolf,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “When only 23 percent of the electorate says their families are better off now than they were four years ago, the crisis of confidence reverberates through the State House.”

(snip)

https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/two-polls-show-pennsylvania-governor-tom-corbett-in-big-trouble/

So at this point, I would say the answer is "no" but I would also note the above referenced a governor's race with an incumbent and could be applicable to the Shapiro/Mastriano race except in that case (like the Senate race), the seat is an open one with no incumbent.

For the last race for this seat (Toomey's in 2016), the polls were literally very close between him and McGinty and within the margin of error much of the time - https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-pennsylvania-senate-toomey-vs-mcginty

[TheRickles]

22. Thanks! Seems like an impossibly deep hole, one that only a wizard could get Oz out of. :-)

[BumRushDaShow]

23. The "establishment" GOP here were trying to get Oz out of the race

so there was an ugly primary because of that, along with some bitterness afterwards.

And given all the Teabagger and MAGat hate for "foreigners", let alone "MOOOOOOSSSSLLLLIMMMMS", I don't know how they are going to reconcile that. If Oz had been running as a Democrat, the GOP would most likely dub him "Oza Bin Laden" or some nonsensical name.

It's possible that they may skip this Senate race and focus on the Shapiro/Mastriano governor's race instead, as well as Bob Casey's Senate seat in 2024. But in the case of the former, Mastriano is like way at the top of the insurrectionist list for the J6 Committee, and that might not go over well with indies, who make up about 1/3rd of the electorate.

[Polybius]

27. Trump in 2016

And he came close in PA in 2020.

[Demsrule86]

43. My, it wasn't close actually. Hillary lost by a much smaller margin.

Interesting post. And if you liked Trump, you likely won't like Oz..who has now moved away from Trump.

[Polybius]

50. 50.01% to 48.84% in PA in 2020 is pretty close

Last edited Thu Jun 23, 2022, 04:49 PM - Edit history (1)

With insanely high negatives, he should have lost by 15 points.

I think you misunderstood my post. TheRickles asked if anyone with negatives as high as Oz ever won a statewide race. I correctly answered him Trump in 2016 in PA.

[BumRushDaShow]

54. "I correctly answered him Trump in 2020 in PA."

Except based on that, then 45 should have "won by 15 points" in 2016 but that didn't happen.



That is because when you have both candidates "underwater", then the "won by 15 points" thing is nonsense. Unfortunately in Biden's case in 2020, his "unfavorables" were almost equal to the "favorables" going into the election.

Trump, Biden favorability unchanged as 2020 race heads into final week: POLL

By Kendall Karson
October 25, 2020, 7:04 AM

(snip)

After two contentious debates and more than $1.5 billion in advertising, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden enter the closing week of a bitter campaign with their favorability ratings relatively unchanged since at least the summer, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday.

Trump's favorability is significantly underwater in the new survey, which was conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News using Ipsos' Knowledge Panel, with more than half of Americans -- including more than half of men (53%), Americans over 65 (53%), and independents (57%) -- viewing him unfavorably. The president's favorability deficit stands at minus-22 in the poll, similar to where he stood on the eve of the 2016 election.

But unlike four years ago, when both Trump and Hillary Clinton headed into November deeply unpopular – Trump's favorability at 38% to 60% and Clinton's at 42% to 56% in the final ABC News/Washington Post poll -- Biden is seen significantly more favorably.

Biden's standing is near even at 44% to 43%, roughly where he's been for several months in this and similar surveys. The Democratic nominee, though, still has shortfalls, with more men (49%), independents (48%), and white Americans (53%) viewing him unfavorably rather than favorably.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-biden-favorability-unchanged-2020-race-heads-final/story?id=73808383

Biden’s lead over Trump narrows in Pennsylvania, final Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows

By Andrew Wagaman
The Morning Call • Oct 31, 2020 at 8:30 am

(snip)

Biden’s favorability ratings did take a bit of a hit in the past week, with 38% holding a favorable impression and 45% holding an unfavorable impression. In the previous poll, both metrics were at 42%.

Trump’s ratings, however, are worse. As has been the case throughout the campaign, a majority of poll respondents (52%) don’t like Trump, while about 4 in 10 like him.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-biden-leads-trump-final-muhlenberg-poll-20201031-wn2zul3rhbat7ci3uztnrl3viy-story.html

[Polybius]

57. Sorry typo, I meant 2016 not 2020

I'll read all that in detail tonight, at work now...

[JI7]

31. I think McConnell is very unpopular

[Demsrule86]

37. I don't know for sure but it doesn't seem likely.

[Evolve Dammit]

14. Oz looks like a con man huckster. The fact that he is not from PA and is on GOP ticket confirms it!

[LenaBaby61]

21. Looks like is putting it mildly.

He IS a quack and hustler.

Dr. Oz Has A Long History Of Promoting Quack Treatments.

“Dr. Oz is guilty of either outrageous conflicts of interest or flawed judgements about what constitutes appropriate medical treatments, or both. Whatever the nature of his pathology, members of the public are being misled and endangered, which makes Dr. Oz’s presence on the faculty of a prestigious medical institution unacceptable,” the doctors wrote.

The letter, and a 2014 study revealing that more than half of his medical advice was bogus, could haunt Oz, who’s leaning heavily into his medical background for his campaign.

His opening message this week was about where he thinks the government went wrong in confronting the pandemic.

“The government mandated policies that caused unnecessary suffering,” he wrote in a Washington Examiner op-ed announcing his candidacy. “The public was patronized and misled instead of empowered. We were told to lock down quietly and let those in charge take care of the rest.”

Hydroxychloroquine was never found to have any benefit in treating COVID-19.

Raspberry Ketones ... For Fat Burning

In a 2012 segment on his show, Oz called them a “miracle fat-burner in a bottle,” but there’s little evidence that raspberry ketones are anything more than pretty red pills.

Raspberry ketones give their namesake food their distinctive smell. They’re also present in peaches, grapes, apples and other fruits.

As a weight loss supplement, raspberry ketones haven’t been very well studied. The surveys that have been done show promise, but they used a far higher dose than you would get with normal supplements.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/dr-oz-pennsylvania-senate-medical-cures_n_61a79347e4b07fe20121485a

[calimary]

25. Good. Steady as she goes. Let him implode and just get out of the way.

At least for awhile - as long as the race keeps looking like this.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

17. Oz seems like the worst possible match-up against Fetterman in PA

that I can imagine.

[Sugarcoated]

47. Fetterman is trolling him cleverly

and relentlessly

[peggysue2]

55. Yes!

Oz trying to portray himself as an "everyman' is laughable. There was an ad out with him posing with a PA farmer on a tractor. Meanwhile, his big fancy car is in the background. Or Oz doing grocery shopping complaining about prices; the man's a multimillionaire for God's sake.

John Fetterman talks the talk and walks the walk. His authenticity is his super power in this race which makes The Wizard of Oz look all the more ridiculous as he postures and poses as the man on the street or a rural wanna-be.

Fetterman is the real deal. Oz is a continuation of the Republican con. It definitely shows.

[BannonsLiver]

19. It's just as likely Oz doesn't wear well over the next few months and his numbers slip.

I don’t see anyone accounting for that possibility. There’s some pretty good evidence he’s not a particularly good candidate and his campaign is not a particularly good operation. We shall see.

[calimary]

24. Steady as she goes, Fetterman!

[Cha]

30. lol.. I just posted about the same.😎

💙💛

[Cha]

28. Steady as it Goes, Fetterman!

💙💛

[Demsrule86]

46. +1000

[Cha]

56. Aloha Dems!

💙💛