Does this Nebraska special election result mean anything?

[EarlG]

I haven't really heard anything about this today. This was yesterday's special election to replace Jeff Fortenberry (R) who resigned after a felony conviction.

Mike Flood, the Republican running to replace Fortenberry, beat Democrat Patty Pansing Brooks by six points, 53%-47%. But... here are the historical results for NE-1:

2020
Jeff Fortenberry (R) beat Kate Bolz (D) by 22 points, 59%-37%.

2018
Jeff Fortenberry (R) beat Jessica McClure (D) by 20 points, 60%-40%.

2016
Jeff Fortenberry (R) beat Daniel M. Wik (D) by 38 points, 69%-31%.

2014
Jeff Fortenberry (R) beat Dennis Crawford (D) by 38 points, 69%-31%.

2012
Jeff Fortenberry (R) beat Korey L. Reiman (D) by 36 points. 68%-32%.

2010
Jeff Fortenberry (R) beat Ivy Harper (D) by 42 points, 71%-29%.

The point being, this is a deep red district. Donald Trump beat Biden there by 15 points in 2020.

So it looks like a fairly significant swing for the Democrat to come up short by just 6 points yesterday. Is this because of Fortenberry's scandal? Or is something else going on?

[Yonnie3]

1. It was a low turnout election

Turnout was about 27% as far as I can tell. 2018 had over 60% turnout.

Perhaps Ds were motivated and Rs were not.

It is hard to make any conclusion. I didn't find any exit polling about issues.

[TwilightZone]

2. Lived there for a long time. Fortenberry was very popular.

Could never understand why; the guy is a weasel. I think a lot of what we see in his results vs. the current race was a combination of that popularity plus the incumbency factor, which is pretty strong in Nebraska.

Patty Pansing Brooks might have also been a stronger candidate than others whom he'd faced in the past. That was considered a pretty safe seat for him for a long time so it might not have drawn as much attention or our best candidates.

[former9thward]

3. NE-1 was changed in the redistricting.

It is still substantially R but less so than in the previous elections.

[EarlG]

4. Thanks for the informative responses!

Sounds like its unclear whether this signifies anything for Dems at large in the fall.