'They are preparing for war': An expert on civil wars discusses where political extremists are takin

[Novara]

‘They are preparing for war’: An expert on civil wars discusses where political extremists are taking this country

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Originally the model included over 30 different factors, like poverty, income inequality, how diverse religiously or ethnically a country was. But only two factors came out again and again as highly predictive. And it wasn’t what people were expecting, even on the task force. We were surprised. The first was this variable called anocracy. There’s this nonprofit based in Virginia called the Center for Systemic Peace. And every year it measures all sorts of things related to the quality of the governments around the world. How autocratic or how democratic a country is. And it has this scale that goes from negative 10 to positive 10. Negative 10 is the most authoritarian, so think about North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain. Positive 10 are the most democratic. This, of course, is where you want to be. This would be Denmark, Switzerland, Canada. The U.S. was a positive 10 for many, many years. It’s no longer a positive 10. And then it has this middle zone between positive 5 and negative 5, which was you had features of both. If you’re a positive 5, you have more democratic features, but definitely have a few authoritarian elements. And, of course, if you’re negative 5, you have more authoritarian features and a few democratic elements. The U.S. was briefly downgraded to a 5 and is now an 8.

And what scholars found was that this anocracy variable was really predictive of a risk for civil war. That full democracies almost never have civil wars. Full autocracies rarely have civil wars. All of the instability and violence is happening in this middle zone. And there’s all sorts of theories why this middle zone is unstable, but one of the big ones is that these governments tend to be weaker. They’re transitioning to either actually becoming more democratic, and so some of the authoritarian features are loosening up. The military is giving up control. And so it’s easier to organize a challenge. Or, these are democracies that are backsliding, and there’s a sense that these governments are not that legitimate, people are unhappy with these governments. There’s infighting. There’s jockeying for power. And so they’re weak in their own ways. Anyway, that turned out to be highly predictive.

And then the second factor was whether populations in these partial democracies began to organize politically, not around ideology — so, not based on whether you’re a communist or not a communist, or you’re a liberal or a conservative — but where the parties themselves were based almost exclusively around identity: ethnic, religious or racial identity. The quintessential example of this is what happened in the former Yugoslavia.

More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/03/08/they-are-preparing-war-an-expert-civil-wars-discusses-where-political-extremists-are-taking-this-country/

You may need a subscription to read the WaPo article, but you can read it here for free: https://archive.ph/THpJL

I encourage you to read it. Can't keep sticking our heads in the sand. I'll say it again: if you haven't read "It Can't Happen Here," you should.

[Kid Berwyn]

1. "When do we get to use the guns?"

A man at a local event by Turning Points USA asked, just hours after the Boise Towne Square shooting, asked Charlie Kirk when he would get to start killing political opponents.



‘When do we get to use the guns?’ The police should be able to take that guy’s guns.

BY BRYAN CLARK
The Idaho Statesman, OCTOBER 28, 2021

Excerpt…

The main speaker was Charlie Kirk, the co-founder of Turning Points. Kirk’s hucksterism is obvious. He is a traveling salesman at heart.

Snip…

According to the nonprofit organization’s tax filings, Kirk was paid about $330,000 last year. Turning Points reported earning about $10.3 million from fundraising events, more than a quarter of its total revenue for 2020.

Snip…

The man, claiming the state had fallen into tyranny, asked Kirk: “When do we get to use the guns?” — to applause and cheers from many in the audience.

Then, to remove any doubt that this aspiring Brownshirt wasn’t being metaphorical or facetious but was, in fact, asking when to start murdering political opponents, he continued: “That’s not a joke. I’m not saying it like that. I mean, literally, where is the line? How many elections are they going to steal before we kill these people?”

Kirk did not respond with a simple message like: “Terrorism is wrong. You shouldn’t do it.” Instead, he cast political violence as a tactical blunder. It would play into the hand of the same hidden media-deepstate-Democrat forces trying to institute tyranny by installing Joe Biden as president, he claimed.

Continues…

https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/article255354321.html

This arming American youth with automatic weapons and crazy ideas is intentional. I blame the GOP and Rupert Murdoch.

[Irish_Dem]

2. I have been saying for some time that Putin/GOP are at war with the US.

The GOP wants what Putin has in Russia. Total, permanent power and control of all US financial assets.
White christian male minority rule.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

6. A strange symbiosis of nazis, theocrats, oligarchs, and the gullible insane

[dwayneb]

3. I've read most of "It Can't Happen Here"

But I didn't need to, really. I've been sounding the alarm for 50 years. Fell on deaf ears, because Americans in many ways were very spoiled. I use the past tense, because I think we are past the point of no return.

We don't know exactly how it will play out, because America is a unique case in many ways. My personal guess is that once the Fascists seize control of our elections and get total control of the Federal government, that there will be significant civil unrest (protests, riots, property destruction).

But I don't see the younger generations picking up a gun and fighting a war. My best guess is that they will go under the boot quietly. More like Russia; if our Federal police and military and our department of "justice" can be turned against the people, there is little hope that any sort of armed uprising will prevail. It will be crushed and obliterated. Very much as Orwell predicted in 1984.

[Cosmocat]

7. That is how I am seeing it

It kind of pissed people off, but I have been saying we are completely rolling over to it since 45 got elected.

We just do not have the fire, we are too comfortable and living too well.

At the same time, the "other side" has LOTS of guns, is REALLY, REALLY itching for a fight and knows that things are rapidly moving in their favor.

The supreme court will back their play to allow states to just pick who they want to win elections after the votes have come in - regardless of how those votes go, and that will be that.

It is only a matter of just how bad things get, because there is not a really bad idea these people won't get on board with.

[shrike3]

8. I'm afraid I am beginning to agree with you.

"There is not a really bad idea these people won't get on board with." Oh, so true.

[Lovie777]

4. Apparently they seem to think we are not going to fight back ......

The USA leadership of Liberals, Progressives, Centrists - Democrats; and Centrists, Conservatives Republicans that somewhat still believe in the Constitution; and Independents are fully aware of this.

[Raven]

5. K&R

[fightforfreedom]

9. Fuck all of them. They will all end up in prison or dead.