GM, Ford Poised to Eat Tesla's Lunch Over Next Four Years

[Takket]

https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-general-motors-ford-shares-analysis-car-wars/

With so many new and excellent EVs going into production, Tesla's share of the electric vehicle market will plummet over the next four years, and it is General Motors and Ford who are poised to eat most of Tesla's lunch, a new report says. Tesla has held about 70 percent of the EV market share in recent years. That is forecast to drop to a mere 11 percent over the next four years, says John Murphy, the Bank of America analyst behind the annual Car Wars report that looks at the auto industry and predicts which companies are on a winning path and which are not.

[Tomconroy]

1. Tesla doesn't seem capable of making a pickup, for some reason.

Or an suv. How are you going to succeed just making expensive sedans?

[IronLionZion]

35. Rivian has electric trucks and SUVs

https://rivian.com/

[Historic NY]

41. Unfortunately they need to up their game if they want to be revelant///

the truck can't go anywhere towing more than 100 miles w/o a recharge. No one buys a truck for hauling that can't go the distance.

[link:https://insideevs.com/news/593575/rivian-towing-range/|]

[fescuerescue]

100. That's the problem the whole industry has

Towing takes about 3 times the energy of regular driving. That's true whether the energy is in the form of gasoline or battery chems.

With a gas/diesel. You just install bigger gas tanks. Maybe take it up from 18 gallons to 36 or put a 50 gallon tank on a Diesel.

But in an electric, you are now talking about 6,000 lbs of battery instead of 2,000.

[CaptainTruth]

47. I have hopes for the Ford F-150 Lightning

It builds on the popularity of the F--150, looks just like a pickup truck that average folks want to buy, unlike Tesla's crazy cybertruck, & starts at $40k.

[link:https://i.insider.com/6132733d61f7d80018f23f72?width=1136&format=jpeg|]

[link:?impolicy=downsize&w=568|]

[getagrip_already]

67. There was a recent YouTube comparison

Between an e150 and a dodge ram of some sort. Both towed the same custom ATC trailer.

The ford had to find a charging station after about 90 miles.

The dodge turned around there, and went back to the start arriving with a few gallons fuel left in it's 24 gallon tank.

These were heavy (6000#?) rigs with a lot of wind break.

But the gas truck, even at 9 mpg, had much further range.

Still, battery tech is getting better. Distances will improve.

And lets face it, the vast majority of heavy duty pickup trucks never haul more than obesity, beer, and groceries.

[CaptainTruth]

75. Of the pickups I see about 90% don't have a scratch in the bed.

Lots of big fancy trucks, the "Platinum" or "Raptor" edition, or Cadillac's "pickup," the Escalade XLT I think it's called, even a Lincoln Blackwood or 2, all spotless & clearly never used for hauling much of anything.

Most of these trucks weren't purchased for hauling, they were bought as status symbols, which is why I'm hoping the Lighting will be viewed as a status symbol truck. From what I've heard it's fast as heck, really accelerates, which should help with status symbol buyers.

[SergeStorms]

81. Suburban Assault Vehicles.

The people who own them want to make sure that - should they ever get into a crash with another vehicle - they emerge without a scratch and whichever unfortunate person they collide with has to be hosed out of their vehicle.

I see more women driving these $75k Urban Assault Vehicles than men. At least it seems that way where I live.

I remember when pick-ups were the cheapest vehicles you could buy because they weren't built for comfort or status. They were bare-bones, three-on-the-tree transmission and maybe, MAYBE an AM radio. You could buy an F-150 Ford pick-up for $1,500 in the late 60s, even less if you knew the dealer.

Crazy times we live in. Crazy times.

[CaptainTruth]

88. The good old days of the F-100!

I grew up in farm country & pickups were farm vehicles, certainly not like today.

When we went to grandpa's farm & used a frontloader to fill the truck bed with manure from the cattle barn it was not a "Platinum" edition pickup with leather seats & power everything in the interior, it was a bare bones Dodge D100.

[Amishman]

84. I wouldn't judge by bed condition

My truck bed gets used all the time (several times a week), and I have had it for over a decade. The bed liner still looks near perfect.

Why? It's really tough and well made, plus I take care to put down either some scrap plywood or cardboard when hauling something that I know would scratch it up.

[Emile]

99. My truck is a 2011 Silverado and the bed looks brand new. I had

a spray in rhino liner sprayed in 2011.

[beaglelover]

83. Yeah, I'm not sure what keeps delaying the pick up, but they do have 2 SUVs.

And the Model Y, the smaller SUV, is Tesla's biggest seller. I have a Model 3 and find it is the perfect size for me and it is the best car I have ever owned. But I am curious to see what GM and Ford's products will look like and what type of range they will offer. I do like the new Cadillac electric SUV/Crossover thing.

[MineralMan]

90. Probably because the Tesla pickup is fugly.

Not appealing to the pickup buying market at all.

[Kablooie]

93. The truck and an affordable version of the sedan were delayed of supply issues.

Covid really screwed up the supply chain and it hasn't all been fixed yet.
They say even making their current models is much slower than they had planned because parts are so slow to be delivered.

They planned a cheaper $25000 version of the sedan that, before Covid, was scheduled to be sold by now.

[pstokely]

95. would rednecks buy a Tesla pickup just to own the libs?

but how would you turn that into a coal roller?

[Hugin]

2. I could believe it based on sheer inertia.

Musk’s syphoning of capital from Tesla to fund his whimsy has ground “innovation” to a halt and it doesn’t look like that will change any time soon as he enters extended litigation on his ill fated Twitter excursion.

[smb]

57. A Lot Of Tesla's Value Was Bound Up In Musk's Reputation

Changing his reputation from "genius visionary" to "loudmouth troll" was not very helpful.

[Martin68]

58. Actually, having some experience taking trips in a Tesla, the cars are brilliantly designed.

But Tesla will have to up their game to compete in the new market.

[Caliman73]

60. That is the part that Musk had very little input into...

He holds exactly 2 patents regarding Tesla, the design of the door, and the design of the proprietary charger. The cars were already designed when he bought into the company.

Musk, as another poster stated, is using funds from Tesla to fund his vanity projects. He has little regard for the company or the employees.

[Martin68]

62. I'm not talking about Musk. I'm talking about Tesla. I don't see the point of getting hung up

on Elon Musk himself.

[sop]

3. "First-Mover Disadvantage: 9 Reasons Why Being First to Market Doesn't Pay Off"

https://www.revelx.co/blog/first-mover-disadvantage/

[48656c6c6f20]

11. This does seem to hold some truth

But in this case having a shitty human being as a CEO and owner might be the key to the demise.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. A bankrupt and destitute Musk would make me happy.

[Deep State Witch]

50. Paying Tons of Child Support

For all of these kids that he supposedly fathered.

[Beachnutt]

5. The Big 3

Don't piss off the Big 3...
I worked out of several GM plants and a few Ford plants...
They can retool and ramp production very fast.
The Arlington Tx plant for example builds the Tahoe, Suburban, Yukon and Escalade they pump out 400 units (suv's) a shift running 3 shifts that's 1200 units a day.
About 1 every minute comes out the door to be delivered during full production.

[DBoon]

28. They are survivors

They have lasted over 100 years. Through the depression, WWII, two oil embargoes, Japanese and Korean competition.

Musk has not had a single failure in his entire privileged life.

[RAB910]

6. In business they talk about moats

A moat is an obstacle that competitors need to overcome to compete in the same business. I think Tesla has a reasonably large moat, but when you consider there are many deep-pocketed car companies that are more than capable of crossing that moat, Telsa has very little to protect it from the competition. In fact, Telsa's efforts to make EVs more practical in terms of charging stations and the like, only made conditions better for competitors to enter their space.

So once you start competing, Telsa doesn't have all that much of an advantage. These other companies have been making vehicles for a lot longer and have the greater infrastructure in terms of sales, service, and support.

Plus, these other companies are not handicapped by having an egomaniacal CEO

[leftieNanner]

13. The thing about those Tesla charging stations?

I believe that they only work for a Tesla. If you have an electric Mustang, you cannot use them.

Our local Target store has several Tesla charging stations in the parking lot.

Our city parking lot has generic ones.

[RAB910]

20. It's not as simple as they can't use it. they can but there is a catch

https://getoptiwatt.com/blog/can-non-tesla-ev-cars-charge-at-tesla-charging-stations

[Wounded Bear]

32. So basically, Tesla wanted to be the Apple of EV production, eh?

Yeah, good way to paint yourself into a niche market. It worked for Apple, I guess. There's far more formidable competition in the auto industry. Apple made it work because when they started, all the clones were small startups themselves. IBM never really got serious about home PCs and were fine with their open platform. That allowed Apple to build a good customer base for long term growth.

IBM was Apple's only large established competitor at the time. Once the Big Three in autos committed to going electric, Teslas corner on the market was doomed. And with the recent technical problems, it looks more and more bleak for them.

[RAB910]

49. I don't think it worked well for Apple in the PC market, their success came more in the other tech

products like phones and tablets.

Apple's market share in the computer market is still less than 16%

[tinrobot]

77. That's changing in Europe and will change here as well.

Tesla switched to the CCS standard connector over there a few years ago thanks to EU regulations. That swap allows Tesla to open up their chargers to other vehicles as well, which is happening.

This will also happen in the US, thanks to Biden's $7.5 billion in money for chargers. Those chargers are required to have the standard connector, so Tesla will have to adapt to get a share of that money. And they will, there's already a press release to that effect.

[Ford_Prefect]

40. Tesla wanted to be first so badly they ignored a number of standard practices used to mass produce

reliable vehicles. These are methods of design and assembly which result in a reliable vehicle platform regardless of the power source, drive train, or the engine placement. These are details of assembly which make a car or truck reliable and durable where they need to be. They also reduce the cost of assembly and also repair.

Tesla has been gliding along on the reputation for being new technology that works well. Their drivetrain, controllers, and battery assembly have rightly been praised. As regards the mundane issues of living with a vehicle of any kind, day after day, their record is shockingly poor for a such an expensive car. Ferrari owners have better reliability than those who paid so very much for the early Tesla models.

I'm told Tesla has made substantial efforts to improve the QC and build quality of the entire line. I sincerely hope they succeed in that. They may be first, and they may have certain issues to correct as many new standard makes have also seen. They have also pushed ALL of the other makers to build much better.

I do not like Musk. I don't trust him further than I could throw the arrogant little punk. He did not build the cars and probably cannot tell one end of a wrench from another. He bought into the idea and hired smart people.

[RAB910]

43. to make that worse, by their very nature electric vehicles should be more reliable and require less

maintenance.

[Ford_Prefect]

56. The standard cars which have been adapted to use the Tesla drive train and power system

have shown what you observe.

Tesla's techno-magic lays in their motor and power control. As far as the box they built to house it goes that seems a mixed bag.

Any new model will go through teething issues as it encounters the real driving environment and the personal peculiarities of real world drivers. I think Tesla took a few more design, development, and manufacturing short-cuts than Mercedes or Toyota could have done in preparing, and testing, and building a new model. FYI both those companies have also had issues with some of their new models of conventional cars and trucks. They are not perfect but they tend to have fewer ongoing customer issues over the long haul.

As far as Ford or GM building better cars I think they probably will. As far as building better or easier to live with EV's I think the jury is still out on that. Both makers have yet to show genuine commitment to the EV as an ongoing staple of their product line. Like the power companies, I think they are as likely to backwards as they are to go forwards. They assume they can get away with bending government and commercial reality in whatever degree they can get away with. IMO they will do what suits the short-term bottom line profits before investing in longer term reality goals.

[jmowreader]

96. Well...the powertrain might require less maintenance than a gasoline powertrain...

...but no one talks about the entire rest of the car.

[RAB910]

98. True, but the rest of the car isn't particularly high maintenance

I mean tires and shocks/struts will wear in time. Some joints may also wear. You will have odds and ends like the HVAC and wipers, but on the whole, most maintenance is in the powertrain.

[Tikki]

7. What I will never understand is why Toyota is so late to the game.

They certainly weren’t spending time honing some cutting edge tech, styling, price or range with the BZ4X.

This from the company that stood early and proud in front with the hybrid.

Tikki

[NickB79]

10. They tried to push hydrogen instead of EV's

Not looking so good.

[Chuuku Davis]

18. Toyota still leans toward hybrids and maybe hydrogen

Maybe due to less use of rare metals.
I don't know.
We like our Prius V and Honda Insight.

[RAB910]

21. To be frank, plugin hybrids are still more practical

pure electrics still have a lot of limitations that the plugin hybrids don't have

[Wounded Bear]

33. Wish I could afford to switch over to a hybrid...nt

[forgotmylogin]

42. Hybrid - from what I understand the gas tank runs to charge the battery?

It's not like the car is switching between electric and combustion motors; the battery is charged and re-charges from braking momentum (and solar if the car has panels on the roof) and then if the battery is low it will run the gas engine to recharge the battery - which is more efficient that using combustion to run the drivetrain in this setup?

So gas is a back-up fuel source to charge the battery and thus uses less since it's not actually moving the car? This seems better as a transitional model until the whole country can have enough EV charging stations and people's psyches move to electric instead of gasoline.

[RAB910]

46. It really depends on the hybrid. Many hybrids have parallel powerplants

The plug-ins run on electric motors and when the battery is depleted they use their internal combustion engines

[Martin68]

59. I disagree. One of the biggest advantages of pure electric is the lack of moving parts and

maintenance required. Hybrids are a stop-gap solution until batteries provide longer driving ranges and charging stations become ubiquitous.

[RAB910]

65. I get your point and it's a fair one. However, as it stands now, EV needs to be one of two vehicles

one owns because the range issue is a legit issue. Even with more charging stations, the "super charged" stations need at least 20 minutes to top off a battery (that's assuming you can access a charger that can perform that function). With ranges of 200- 400 miles, long round trips or road trips are not all that practical.

So you really need two vehicles. One can be an EV for daily commutes (if short enough) and local errands and one for longer trips.

[Martin68]

66. I agree. But that is a factor of being at the very beginning of a massive change-in-progress.

There will come a time when we'll be taking trains or some other faster mass transit for longer trips. The hydrocarbon-driven vehicle is a dinosaur, and there's a meteor on its way.

[RAB910]

71. I think in Europe ICE could become an endangered species in a few years

I think in the US it will take a decade. I think the rest of the world will take longer with exceptions like Japan.

I am not even sure that rechargeable is the future. I mentioned the charging times, but there are other issues as well.

the ranges are maximums and are reduced by weather, speed, and the age of your vehicle

EVs depreciate quicker than ICE vehicles

Hydrogen with its potential for refills that are more in line with current refueling could prove to be the ultimate future over rechargeables.


Think about your cell phone, after a couple of years it doesn't hold a charge like it did when it was new. EVs are going to have similar issues.

[AllyCat]

89. Yes. Every time I start thinking a plug-in hybrid is most versatile

I remember we are back to maintenance. What was a $35 oil change 2 years ago is now almost $100 every 3 months. Plus coolant changes, flush and fills, and transmission oil changes. I need less maintenance.

[Tree Lady]

27. Honda is late also

My daughter is top manager at large dealership in CA. She says people are not asking for or buying electric. Maybe they will when they have to in a few years. Honda cars are so good in gas I think that is reason. New cars are ordered now and 6-8 weeks out. They can't keep any in stock. And selling a lot of used cars.

[IbogaProject]

85. Toyota is partnering with Mazda to share technoligies.

Last edited Mon Jul 11, 2022, 05:58 PM - Edit history (1)

Mazda has some electric car stuff, Toyota has the hybrid and one of them has autopilot technology. I expect Toyota to enter pure electric or some kind of mostly electric hybrid, with some kind of generator that can use fuel.

[mopinko]

8. i'm holding out for an electric vette.

wanted a tesla at one time, but...

[Historic NY]

37. Coming soon

[link:https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39813141/corvette-ev-confirmed/|]

[mopinko]

45. mmmmm ty. e-ray. i love it.

i prolly cant afford it, but i sure will try. i dont drive that much, so it wont depreciate that much.
and whichever of my kids has their eye on it when i pass will be under.my.thumb. lol.

[Martin68]

61. Better start saving now. The Vette name will triple the cost.

[mopinko]

63. i heard $100k mebbe.

but we're talkin the last car i'll ever buy, and one i'll hand down to my kids.
it'll be a stretch, but...

[Victor_c3]

70. It looks like the front wheels might be driven by an electric motor

Or at least what the article posted above suspected might be the case.

I’ve been a performance car junkie my entire life. Years ago I even had a Corvette, but the lack of a backseat and available all wheel drive (AWD) pushed towards seeking used 911’s when kids showed up in my life and I needed something practical to drive in the snow but still wanted something fun to drive. As my kids grow older, a backseat will matter less and less and an AWD Corvette could be quite a compelling choice.

I can’t wait.

[mopinko]

73. i wouldnt hate havin a 911 either.

a friend of mine had one, and she let me drive it around the block. it scared the shit out of me, not least that i'd put a mark on it cuz it was brand new.
but i'm old now, and harder to scare.

[Victor_c3]

78. Life certainly has it's difficulties

I would love to be in the position to buy a new one, but in years past used 911’s have been quite the bargain value.

Even at used prices, there is no such thing as a cheap 911. However, used 911’s hold their values quite well. In 2017, a 2013 911 was going for about $70,000. In 2022, that same car is still selling for at least $70,000.

$70k is a lot of money, but the sting isn’t quite so bad when you don’t get burned all that bad by depreciation.

[mopinko]

80. yeah, i've never bought brand new, tho the hubs did.

1 yo lease returns are the way to go. all car, no depreciation.

i had a lot more money before the plague. coulda swung it. plague been berry berry bad to me tho.

[Buckeyeblue]

9. Tesla has been innovative

But in some ways they've been too interested in being innovative and not interested enough in perfecting and reducing expenses. That's where Ford and GM will ultimately win.

[leftieNanner]

12. If we ever buy another car

It will likely be electric. And it will not be a Tesla.

There are so many good quality electrics now - from Chevy to Audi and Mercedes (out of our price range!).

And because of Elon Musk's toxic antics, I would never buy a car from him.

[GoneOffShore]

14. That's our feeling as well. Our next car will be a Renault hybrid.

And I hate auto transmissions.

[leftieNanner]

15. Renaults are not sold in the US any more, right?

I'm a manual transmission person myself.

[GoneOffShore]

29. Correct - We live in France now, so lots of Renaults here.

[leftieNanner]

39. We have talked about moving to France

Friends of ours here in Southern Oregon sold all of their belongings (except clothes), put their cat in a carrier, and moved to Spain. They love it.

If we didn't have two adult daughters in the US, I would consider it myself.

The best we can do right now though is sell our house here and move to the Seattle area. I miss living near water.

[GoneOffShore]

51. We sold up in 2018 and in September will have been here 4 years.

We bought our flat in 2017 intending to go back and forth. Then an opportunity presented itself, we pulled up stakes and moved.

A lot of Americans, even with adult kids, have done the same. Consider Portugal.

[leftieNanner]

55. Portugal sounds intriguing

Where are you in France?

[Victor_c3]

72. I've been researching moving abroad quite a bit in recent years

Some countries have tax treaties with the US and won’t require you to pay income tax in their country on the benefits you draw from the US. Also, some countries allow your Medicaid benefit to pay for access to their socialized medicine systems. Off the top of my head, I couldn’t tell which are which.

I believe Ireland is another country that is friendly to foreign retirees. France, outside of the larger cities, is also supposedly fairly affordable to live.

All in all, there seem to be a lot of good destinations for people to retire too. I’m about 7 years away from realistically retiring (I’m waiting for my youngest daughter to graduate high school), but that doesn’t stop me from dreaming!

[GoneOffShore]

86. We're in Aix-en-Provence - about 50km northeast of Marseille.

It's a 40-minute drive to Cassis on the Mediterranean coast, which is a lovely little town(as long as you don't try to park there in the summer). Friends just bought a place in La Ciotat, which is further east, with a view over the town and the bay. Much nicer than further east(IMHO) because the yacht moorings aren't suitable for big oligarch yachts.

[Initech]

23. Same.

I want a Model Y but then again it's a Tesla. I'm 3 years away from buying a new car, but I'm already losing at the Kia EV6 for my next car!

[SergeStorms]

16. Does this mean....

Musk won't be moving to the moon anytime soon?

Do you think we can get the Big Three to hold off on their releasing more and better products until after he's gone?

[tinrobot]

17. VW will be the first to overtake Tesla

Bloomberg is predicting this will happen two years (2024)

https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/volkswagen-to-overtake-teslas-battery-electric-vehicle-sales-crown-by-2024-finds-bloomberg-intelligence/

Hyundai/Kia is another one to watch out for - they're also electrifying quickly.

[BSdetect]

19. This article is based on so many false assumptions.

That Tesla's market share will decline as other makers release EVs is obvious.

In fact Tesla has been encouraging others to make EVs for over a decade.

OEMs like GM are doomed to failure and bankruptcy as the never moved to EVs in time. Their existing sales are plummeting.

And Tesla is not a car company. If you still live in that bubble you have no clue what is going on.

[Goodheart]

22. I bought a Ford Escape Hybrid two years ago

and I couldn't be happier.

I trust Ford. They're a great auto manufacturer.

[we can do it]

24. Fuck that greedy asshole and his dangerous cars.

[njhoneybadger]

25. Maybe he should by Twitter.

[DBoon]

26. You don't need Tesla for a pricy luxury EV sedan, either

Mercedes has one that I believe will be serious competition in that niche.

https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/vehicles/passenger-cars/eqs/eqs/

[packman]

30. Regardless, I still applaud Tesla for promoting EV's

I know electric cars have a long history, but Tesla woke something up and , for that, kudos.

[Tommymac]

31. Anecdotal - just retrned from Sweden and Tesla has a big presence there.

For a small country - saw many many more Tesla's in proportion to other makes then here in the USA.

Caught me by surprise - didn't know that Tesla had such a big presence in the EU.

[TeamProg]

34. K&R Thanks for posting. n/t

[Historic NY]

36. Certainly will Tesla's boring design is aging out I'm so sick of white unimagined painted cars.

The truck thing was a failure.

[Pepsidog]

38. Eat that Musk!

[edhopper]

44. Musk has been chasing the auto-driving unicorn

to the detriment of making better EV cars. He also over promises on everything.

[Fiendish Thingy]

48. I think it's possible that Tesla won't exist 10 years from now.

As more and more automakers ramp up their EV capacity, Musk’s anti union, racist corporate culture will make it hard for him to find workers to build his cars.

Teslas could become the new DeLorean.

[tinrobot]

79. I think it will continue to exist, the brand/technology is too valuable.

Though, Musk is doing everything in his power to destroy that brand value.

I think they will eventually get bought out.

[evolves]

52. Boo hoo

[Historic NY]

53. At the present moment there needs to be some sort of standardization to charging

These vehicles and placement of charging stations. Some Republicans want to do away with them because it isn't fair to have free charging and have to pay for fossil fuels. GM has fast 110volt charging that can boost mileage 100 miles in about ten minutes. Juggling charging at rest stops is going to be a problem as more and more vehicles hit the road. Mastering that will determine the winners vs the losers.

[MichMan]

54. Of course their EV market share is going to decline as EV become more mainstream

At the same time their sales volume could go up making them more profitable.

[AllyCat]

64. Really interested in Ford's Lightening and the Mach E

Love the look of Tesla's, but not hearing great things anymore. The NDAs for repairs, Musk's ridiculous antics in the public sphere...no thanks.

[getagrip_already]

69. When I heard about the right to repair issues....

Along with the lack of ability to transfer sw upgrades during resale, I vowed I'd never touch one.

You have zero rights of ownership with a tesla. If you don't use their authorized repair shops, and their authorized parts, they can brick your car.

If you sell it, they will turn off all of those features like autopilot and advanced detection gizmos. The new owner will need to license those again, driving down resale value.

No thanks

[AllyCat]

87. Worse than I thought

[The Jungle 1]

68. Three moving parts.

An electric motor has three moving parts. Two bearings and a rotor. There is full torque all the way through the RPM band. Which means no transmission. If you put a motor on each wheel then there is no differential. Typical IC car's drive train contains 2000 precision machined parts. Typical EV drive train contains 20.
My kid has a Volt and it has over 150 thousand miles on it. He has never replaced the brake pads or rotors. Regen braking means you don't us the brakes.
The buggy whip manufactures hated IC engines. We are in the same place again.
IC engines = Flintstones
Yo time to move on.

[Zeitghost]

74. Loosing market share

In a brand new market that is rapidly expanding isn't as big of a problem as some would have you think.

[Kablooie]

76. Tesla plans to survive by offering self driving cars.

This has become a joke because Musk has been promising self driving cars next year for years now but
I have a Tesla and it actually drives itself about 90% of the time right now.

I paid for the self driving feature when I bought the car knowing it was a gamble whether the full software would ever be available or not. Last October Tesla started allowing drivers to test the new software. I allowed my car to monitor my driving and score me over a couple of weeks. I received a score of 100 so I was allowed to download the beta self driving software.

I'd say the first version was about 80% there. Over the last 10 months I've received many updates, each one working a little better than the last and now it's about 90% there.

I tell the car where to go, it plots a course and makes all the turns, lane and speed changes managing traffic lights and stop signs all by itself. It moves aside for obstacles like someone opening a car door. It drives around stopped garbage and delivery trucks. It slows a little and moves over if someone is walking in the road. It waits at crossings for all pedestrians to clear before move forward. It waits for oncoming cars before making turns. If you're on a narrow road it will pull to the side to let an oncoming car pass. All this by itself.

The system requires me to keep my eyes on the road and be ready to take over if needed. If I am not paying attention too long the system shuts off for the rest of the drive with a warning. After 3 warnings you lose the ability to use the software.

The main reason I have to take over is that the car is too cautious. Sometimes it is slower than a human to make sure a turn is safe and this can annoy drivers behind you. Occasionally it will choose the wrong lane for turning. If you don't correct it will follow the lane direction legally and move off it's planned path. If a person runs out in front of the car it will stop but also sound a warning to make sure the driver is aware of a dangerous situation and advises you to take over.

The ride is not as smooth as a human's right now. It can be indecisive at times with the steering wheel jerking back and forth slightly before it makes a decision. There are some features that have not been implemented yet such as recognizing human hand signals but they will be added in the future.

It's certainly not ready for prime time but it is getting there. I do believe it will achieve full self driving for most situations within a year or two.

Every Tesla sold right now has all the hardware needed for self driving and once it is fully developed it will be available for any Tesla driver who wants it. This is the feature that Musk hopes will keep Tesla in the running with all the other EV car makers.

[beaglelover]

91. I have a Tesla Model 3 with enhanced auto pilot.

I've used it once in over 2 years. I just like being in control of my car, I guess.

I could never do what you do with full self driving. I'd be too nervous waiting for the car to do something wrong. But I do hope the technology gets to where it needs to be in a few years.

[Kablooie]

92. Yeah, I have to keep alert but it rarely gets into situations that seem dangerous.

And it can be more nimble at avoiding accidents than I would be. There are videos online of Teslas suddenly swerving because someone behind was changing a lane right into them. Something that the driver wouldn't normally notice. The car sees 360 degrees around 100% of the time so once the software is complete it will be safer than a human driver. That's the goal.

Occasionally it will get closer to other cars than I would so I take over. I don't think it would hit them but it's too close for my comfort. I'm aware of a lot of it's quirks now so most of my disengagements are because because I see a situation coming up where it could get confused. If there are no other cars around I can let it take it's time and it usually makes the right decision in the end.

[Ron Green]

82. "A winning path" for automobile manufacturers is a losing one

for human beings. Private motorized vehicle travel is what we all grew up with and cherish (witness the personal yearnings and anguishes in this very thread), but a healthy future for people, communities and planet simply can’t abide it.

[Rstrstx]

94. Wrong on so many levels, 2025 is less than 3 years away

GM and Ford are very good at putting out vast quantities of press releases. Building EVs in mass numbers? Not so much.

Tesla already has the art of mass producing EVs down and is trying to vertically integrate as much as possible - right down to the mines where they will get the minerals to build their batteries. I wouldn’t be surprised if they buy their own chip manufacturing company so they don’t have to experience supply chain issues again.

American legacy automakers will only be able to produce as many EVs as they can get batteries for, and that’s a real problem. It won’t be solved enough by 2025 for them to overcome Tesla, that is laughable. And Tesla will also be 3 years ahead by then, in fact they’ve already started building cheaper lithium-iron-phosphate batteries for their non-performance cars.

Meanwhile GM and Ford be rolling out modest amounts of EVs by 2025 at best, which is fine because it’s going to take a while for the infrastructure to keep up.

The biggest threat to Tesla (and pretty much every other car maker) are the cheap Chinese EVs that will be coming to market.

[jmowreader]

97. Tesla has another problem - heavy trucks

If you are a garbage company you can buy an all-electric garbage truck. Mack started building them for customers in December 2021 and they're selling about as well as you can expect a $500,000 garbage truck chassis to sell.

https://www.electrive.com/2022/05/16/mack-trucks-sell-three-electric-refuse-vehicles-in-florida/

This is kinda cool: The City of Miami has a waste-to-energy plant that generates electricity by burning garbage. This electricity is being used to charge their electric garbage truck.

New York City was the testbed for this truck. They bought seven. Santa Cruz, CA, bought one.

Fun fact: All Mack Trucks have a bulldog hood emblem. The one on their electric trucks is made of copper.