The Republican Advance in the South -- and Other Party Registration Trends

[brooklynite]

UVA Center for Politics

Last fall in Florida, something downright historic occurred. For the first time in the state’s modern history, the number of registered Republicans surpassed the number of registered Democrats. It has added an element of congruency to Florida politics, where Republicans were already dominating elections up and down the ballot. And it has provided more momentum for the GOP as it seeks to convert Florida from a battleground state into a reliably red one.

For Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, the GOP success was also a personal one. He had made the idea of “flipping” Florida a significant goal of his administration and put $2 million into seeing that it happened. When it did, one of the prime beneficiaries was DeSantis, whose reputation on the national scene as an effective party-builder was enhanced.

For generations, party registration had been notoriously out of sync with election results. Across the late 20th century, Republican presidential winners such as Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush won landslide victories by carrying states with significant Democratic registration pluralities.

But those days are fading fast, with a dramatic shift in particular occurring in the once “solid” Democratic South. For decades now, Republicans have dominated the region electorally, but it is only now that long healthy Democratic registration advantages are finally evaporating. In the last few years, the number of registered Republicans has finally surpassed the number of registered Democrats not only in Florida, but also in Kentucky, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. (The Mountain State is not technically Southern, though it has become very Republican in recent years just like many Southern states.)

[Casady1]

1. The registration numbers

were behind the reality. Florida is going more red all the time. Look who it attracts. Old people who are republicans from up north. There is hardly any "new economy" down if Florida. There is no high tech and it is agriculture and tourism. Georgia is much closer to what is happening in the modern south. If you told me 10 years ago that a democrat had a chance in GA. I would have told you "you are crazy".

Atlanta is attracting young people and it grows more blue everyday."

[Baggies]

2. Not overly surprising

The Republican Party has been a stronghold in the Cuban community since the 60’s and hasn’t waned much at all. Most of the State is conservative except for the larger cities, much like many other States.

[The Magistrate]

3. Like A Change In Shift, Sir

Older 'legacy Democrats' who haven't voted for a Democrat in ages are departing, and their places taken by kids they raised to be Republicans.

[moose65]

4. The shift happened a long time ago

Here in NC, Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but the margin has shifted. Not too many years ago, there were about 700,000 more registered Dems than Republicans. Now, it's down to about 200,000. We actually have more Unaffiliated voters than voters from either party.

Seems like younger folks don't want to label themselves with either party, although they seem to align more with us than with them.

I think that the Upper South, like Georgia, NC, and Virginia, will continue to trend blue. The Deep South may stay red forever. Florida sure has its share of nutcases!

[TheRealNorth]

6. FL attracts the nutcases from the North

I have known a few RWNJ's that have moved down there. Feel bad that the native Floridians has to deal with them.

[roamer65]

8. ...and I am glad to see them leave.

[bronxiteforever]

5. The simple truth is that a growing majority

of Americans in those states support the GOP party and it’s trumpian incarnation.
I am not sure there is anything the Democratic Party can do to change it. I would interested in your ideas Brooklynite.

This Vox article from 2 weeks ago pretty much captures the essence of GOP republicanism.

What America faces now is a conservatism unbounded. While the movement of the past regularly partnered with the radical right, and even shared some of its beliefs, it also would on occasion police it — belatedly turning out the Birchers and Sam Francis. Today’s conservatism has jettisoned that modicum of caution. It’s a conservatism that isn’t conservative but downright revolutionary.

And having had a taste of victory, there is no sign that the Republican Party is willing, or even capable, of reimposing the limits that once made it safe for democratic politics.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/7/6/23144343/end-of-conservatism-roe

[PortTack]

7. The switch to gqp was not by choice by many canvassed

Florida prosecutor said she is investigating reports that elderly voters in Miami unknowingly had their registrations changed from Democratic to Republican.

Miami-Dade Elections Department data shows that more than 5,000 registered Democrats have switched their party registration to Republican in the 2021-22 cycle. A growing number of seniors told WPLG that their party affiliation had been switched without their permission or knowledge.

It's unclear how many registrations may have been changed without voters' consent, but WPLG reported that all of the victims so far were over 65.


https://www.salon.com/2022/02/08/were-elderly-florida-democrats-re-registered-as-without-their-consent/