Al-Qaida's Soon-To-Be Third Emir? A Profile of Saif al-Adl (predicted in February 2021)

[Celerity]

https://ctc.westpoint.edu/al-qaidas-soon-to-be-third-emir-a-profile-of-saif-al-adl/

Abstract:

With the confirmed deaths of Hamza bin Ladin and Abu Muhammad al-Masri, as well as the reported demise of al-Qa`ida’s second emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the likely next in line to inherit the leadership is an Egyptian who goes by the nom de guerre Saif al-`Adl. Like the late Abu Muhammad, Saif lives in Iran and is apparently restricted from leaving the country. Little is known about his current movements or activities. Nevertheless, Saif’s revered status within the movement, as well as his deep experience as a military, intelligence, and security leader and a terrorist planner, make him a potentially dangerous emir.

By the time he died in May 2011, Usama bin Ladin had already identified his successor. Under the terms of his organization’s 2001 merger with Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), the former leader of EIJ Ayman al-Zawahiri was to be the next emir of al-Qa`ida. But before al-Zawahiri could formally take office, he needed pledges of allegiance (bayat) from the members of its governing council. Al-Zawahiri did not collect those pledges himself; to finish the job, the organization needed someone whose credentials and loyalty were unimpeachable. It turned to a man who had been there since the very beginning, and who had been a leading figure almost as long: the Egyptian former commando named Saif al-`Adl.

Since 2002 or 2003, Saif had been based in Iran. While there, his status shifted periodically. Sometimes he was detained in prison, sometimes under varying forms of house arrest. Toward the end of 2010, he had been allowed to travel back to Waziristan in northern Pakistan, where al-Qa`ida then had its hub. In May 2011, Saif enjoyed enough liberty to act as interim leader of al-Qa`ida, the organization to which he had given the past 22 years of his life.

Many in al-Qa`ida probably wished his appointment could be made permanent; for while Saif and al-Zawahiri were both Egyptians, al-Qa`ida’s membership saw them in very different lights. As this article will show, Saif was a loyal member, a military and intelligence leader who had helped transform al-Qa`ida from a loose band of former anti-Soviet militiamen into the world’s most deadly terrorist organization. Al-Zawahiri, by contrast, was an interloper, the failed leader of a group that, by the time it merged with al-Qa`ida, had only around 10 members left. At the time, Saif himself had opposed the merger. But he knew bin Ladin’s wishes as to the succession, and after bin Ladin’s death, he carried them out with the same efficiency and single-mindedness that characterized everything he did. Within six weeks, he had secured pledges of bay`a from all but one of the members of al-Qa`ida’s governing Shura council. (Intriguingly, the sole holdout was Saif’s former private secretary Harun Fazul—then the leader of al-Qa`ida in East Africa—who had often derided al-Zawahiri in the past. Harun was killed around the same time al-Zawahiri became emir, and some reports suggested that he was lured to his death by al-Qa`ida’s Somali affiliate, al-Shabaab—possibly in retaliation for his failure to give bay`a to the new leader.) His job done, Saif al-`Adl again faded into the background. Indeed, by the fall of 2011, Saif had apparently returned to captivity in Iran.

snip

[Turbineguy]

1. Well, there's another guy

Biden can blow to smithereens.

[UTUSN]

2. He's young enough to be on Senator TURTLE's SCotUS court.

[3Hotdogs]

3. He'd be purrfict for the U.S. Supreme Court when Clarence retires or croaks. The Xian fundies

will love him. He doesn't drink or smoke. Put women back in their houses where they belong. No abortion and Je -- sorry.. .Mohammad don't like that boy/boy stuff. Reduce property taxes because no need to spend money educating girls.

The one problem, he don't believe in Jesus as his savior.... well, we'll find a way around that one. Let's fly him over next week for a test interview with Mitch.

[Celerity]

4. he is not that young, he is either 62 or 59 (disputed birthdate, April 11, 1960 or April 11, 1963)

[Tetrachloride]

5. The link implies the main photo was taken at

an age of 41 or 38.

My speculation of his ancestry:

There’s an outside chance of Southeast or East Asian ancestry. The link and I base this on the eyes. It could be normal variation. There is a certain region south of Cairo 350 miles where there might be a concentration of “east” Asian blood.

Egypt has 10-30 ethnicities, i have been told.

I don’t know anything special about his apparent home area.

edit: changed the mileage from 150 to 350