Nate Silver: The Political Environment Might Be Improving For Democrats

[TheProle]

As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “toss-up.” But within that category there’s been modest, but consistent movement toward Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate now stand at 55 percent. That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30. It’s also up from 40 percent in a retroactive forecast dated back to June 1.1

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-political-environment-might-be-improving-for-democrats/

[rockfordfile]

1. Golden State Warriors won the NBA title. Those bozos gave them practically zero chance

538 with zero credibility.

[PortTack]

2. Oh no kidding! They were wrong on the last 3 election cycles and instead of changing their

Methodology, they’ve doubled down on how they weren’t that far off! No better than a coin toss!

[wryter2000]

3. Ya think, Nate?

this pretty much says nothing except the obvious.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. This article is from last week

What happened last night will make Nate's and many other models obsolete.

Currently the Senate is 58-42 for Dem control on 538, House still 80-20 for Rep control, but that's been moving.

[Sky Jewels]

5. No Shit, Silverlock.

[JustAnotherGen]

6. He doesn't really know

I can't take him seriously anymore.

[KPN]

7. Yeah, he/538 had a couple of great national election projections

a while back, but has been slipping lately.