The Coming Republican Enthusiasm Gap

[babylonsister]

Last edited Sat Aug 6, 2022, 09:13 AM - Edit history (1)

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/5/2114743/-The-Coming-Republican-Enthusiasm-Gap

The Coming Republican Enthusiasm Gap
metro50
Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)
Friday August 05, 2022 · 7:43 PM EDT
We've got real enthusiasm. Do they?
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I'll start at the beginning. During the past two years there have been many commentaries about the lack of enthusiasm that Democrats have for President Biden and by extension for the Democratic Party as a whole. The attention given to this has been almost overwhelming at times.

And now, as the president starts to rack up some significant victories, that narrative is fading. It can't disappear any too soon.

But what about the flipside? With the definitive, if still singular, result in this week’s Kansas vote, it seems to me that there is plenty of reason to flip that narrative 180°.

Because it looks like the Republicans have put themselves into a box.

On the one hand, if they continue to support draconian antiabortion legislation and the related restrictions that they seem to be hell-bent on instituting -- regarding gay marriage, contraception, etc. -- then they can expect to see a whole series of results similar to the Kansas vote in the upcoming election. All Democrats have to do is make sure that Republican candidates are tightly tied to their well-publicized punitive policies, and negative results for the Rs appear likely, if not inevitable.

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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/5/2114743/-The-Coming-Republican-Enthusiasm-Gap

[Walleye]

1. Unbelievable, the venom Lindsey Graham was spitting talking about blocking our current reconciliatio

Inflation reduction bill. He said something about making it as painful as possible on the Democrats. Is this what republican voters really want?

[Cosmocat]

8. Yes - in fact is what the dream of and desire more than anything else

Half century of right wing media brainwashing them through the specter of the evil liberal boogyman.

[Walleye]

14. The Democratic Party as the Great Satan. Kind of stops all conversation

[paleotn]

9. Yes. That is exactly what GQP voters want.

Many would literally immolate themselves if it would "own the libs". We are not dealing with sane or rational people.

[Walleye]

15. That's what we have a hard time believing. That's so many people are so irrational.

The rational mind has a hard time accepting that

[paleotn]

17. Yep. It's surreal.

The change we've seen in our society the last couple of generations scares the shit out of them and they'll do anything to turn back the clock. Loss of privilege and a scary, new world are powerful motivators.

[Gore1FL]

19. It's what the Senate GOP can deliver on.

I don't think they care what their voters actually want.

Graham threatening the GOP blocking legislation at this point is simply laughable given that's their chosen strategy on literally everything, anyway.

[Hotler]

23. Their motto. "The only good democrat is a dead democrat".

The only thing the repug voters want is to hurt us, period. If they (fascist) take power they will come for us. Internment camps or death right in the streets. If they take power, anyone not a repug will not be allowed to buy or have guns, just them. If you don't own a firearm now, I'd think about getting one and taking a class. This will get serious my friends. Do not underestimate the hate they (maybe your neighbor) have for us.

[Amishman]

2. The direction independents break is more important

Here is an example; we have 10 Pubs, 10 Democrats, and 10 indies.

Base state is party line for us and them, and split the indies. Sounds reasonable.

Enthusiasm suffers and a Pub stays home. We would win by one, 15-14

But an indie breaks right, adding one vote for them and subtracting on from us. They win by 1, 15-14

How independents break has double the impact of party turnout per person.

[OAITW r.2.0]

4. I get the gist of what you are saying, but

I don't think the electorate splits this cleanly. More like 6-8-10, IMHO.

[Amishman]

27. It was that way a generation ago, we've lost a lot of ground in the past decade

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republican-advance-in-the-south-and-other-party-registration-trends/

Republicans are gaining ground in voter registration. Worse, they are gaining ground in key swing states (PA, FL).

While nationwide we still hold a lead but our geographic disadvantage offsets it. Our lead is largely because of dominance in NY, CA, and a few other very blue states. No offices are decided by national popular vote.


in 2022 - 31 states that track party registration. We currently top 10 of them, The pubs 12, and independents lead 9.

In 2000 - 27 states tracked party registration. We topped 13 of them, Pubs 7, and independents 7.

Worse, the nineteen states that aren't in that dataset are mostly red.

The narrative that their base is withering, that our dominance is a matter of demographic inevitability - is utterly dead. We need to realize this and adjust accordingly. There is no progressive majority on the horizon, coming to sweep the rightwingers out of power. We are looking at being on the defensive quite a bit for the foreseeable future, with our gains coming in small incremental bites.

[modrepub]

3. November Is Still Far Away

A lot can change. But, I think on the economic front, the worst (is hopefully) behind us.

If gas/oil prices continue to decline, then I think some of the inflation pressure is going to drop. Hammering companies that recorded record profits imposing misery on most folks may not be a bad sub-message. We'll have to wait and see how Europe deals with the inevitable energy crisis that's going to happen this winter (and how much pressure that puts on gas/oil prices).

The culture war Republicans keep harping on has finally started to get Democrats/Independents/Moderate Republicans/Women motivated about turning out in opposition. Without the economic issue, abortion/birth control/gay marriage will become more important or just as important voter deciding factors. What happened in Kansas has put Republican messengers on notice that they can't speak too loudly about these issues. Don't worry, the vast majority of Republican candidates can't help themselves. They are going to press these issues if Democrats push them hard enough.

Every Republican who can't stomach the social issue message is going to have a hard time going to the polls and even if they do, they may just leave certain lines blank. Every time this happens, it makes it harder for Republican candidates to win.

[3Hotdogs]

5. Negative ads are more powerful. Dems need to focus on the pro-Roe votes these clowns choose.

Focus on their anti-choice, anti-veteran, pro-inflation.

The Pukes will run anti Dem ads but they won't include "--- wants to kill babies."

Fetterman gets positive attention by ridicule. I'm from N.J. I sent Fetterman $ because his ads are putting him ahead of Droz. Fetterman's ads are different. They draw attention.

This is also the second time I sent $ to Beto.

I get around 20 requests a day from Dem candidates for donations. "Tonight is a deadline." (Who gives a shit?"

"I'm going to 'end' or 'work for" (whatever the topic is). That's nice. now stop cluttering my mailbox.

[localroger]

6. Hobbs was a Pearl Harbor moment for the Left

Like many Americans in the years before WWII, many of us simply did not believe there was a war coming our way. They did not believe it would affect us in any kind of meaningful, personal way. The shift of wealth from the poor and middle to the upper upper upper 1% has been accomplished so slowly that only people keen on math and statistics have been able to see it. And sexual freedom has been an issue for "those people" and while those of us on the Left don't mind and find it kind of cool that they can be who they are without fear, it isn't a personal priority.

All of that just changed though. As Yamamoto said, they have awakened a sleeping giant. And that giant took his first step in Kansas, much in the way that the Doolittle raid showed the Japanese what would be coming.

[Vogon_Glory]

7. I don't see the Republicans as backing away from their radical policies

They’re in debt up to their eyeballs with their religious reactionary blocks. Instead, they’ll LIE about backing away, and low-information voters and lazy-a$$ lamestream corporate media journos will buy their bogus claims.

[Hortensis]

10. Sagging right wing enthusiasm, I hope, if not as much Republican as needed.

I was reading that many who effectively abandoned their religion to go extreme right for a secular authority, tRump, are now doubling down on high-octane religious zealotry to cloak their increasingly fascistic extremism and keep it fueled.

But hopefully that will only widen the rifts that extremism running amok have created on the right.

Desperately important that it does. Historian David Beschloss says the last wave of far-right craziness that threatened democracy in the 1930s, mentioning antisemitic fascistic priest Father Cochlin, is nothing to what's happening now.

[calimary]

16. And there's that theory again. The "every 80 years or so" one.

These things seem to go in cycles and unfortunately we’re in the throes of another one now. I saw that Michael Beschloss segment and I think his point is a very legitimate warning.

Found this interesting:

https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/a-radical-theory-says-major-crises-remake-america-every-80-years/

[Hortensis]

25. :) These societal waves, cycles, patterns are a fascinating topic.

I remember a political scientist telling me at a party in 2010 as the ACA was finally being voted on that, when the Democrats' attempt to establish a national healthcare system was defeated in the 1990s, experts expected it'd take approximately 17 years for the next attempt to be advanced to that point. That was based on knowledge of past patterns of big political advances -- and it did. They were right and not surprised.

Speaking of, oceans of angst could be avoided by developing awareness of these giant societal patterns, factors, and timing. That they even exist would be helpful. Even more when the chances at the golden rings are coming around and need to be grabbed, and when it's just not going to be possible (much of those 17 years for instance). Could really help with those unfortunate enthusiasm-despair swings.

I understand Strauss and Howe's theory itself is an outlier, helpful as the convenient timing and size of the current unrest might be for nihilistic types like Steve Bannon to warp into their ideology of downfall of the liberal western democracies. But the events are real and so are the many patterns huge and small being studied.

[TheBlackAdder]

11. Just wait until October's "The GOP is coming for your Social Security & Medicare" campaign.

[paleotn]

18. Yep. They've embraced what a few short years ago was political suicide.

It probably still is suicide. W foolishly brushed that 3rd rail once and damn near lost a hand. I keep wondering, who they hell is advising these loons to even bring up SS and Medicare? That's just nuts.

[griffi94]

21. They truly believe that they are the majority

Suspension of reality has always been the cornerstone of conservative "get even" politics.
It's like the way they remember the past. Or the way they view social programs.
My Father (a hardcore Trumper) was ranting the old "welfare queen" argument. I looked up the actual stats
on demographics that receive assistance. Most are low socioeconomic families where both parents work. When I told him that, his response was, "I don't believe that.". When I offered to look it up again he started screaming at the top of his lungs that he didn't give a fuck what I looked up.

For the record, he worked his entire career in the oil/pipeline industry. He has no expertise in any other field.

[fightforfreedom]

12. Don't forget, The Republican Party is also fractured.

The Party is losing voters because it has become too extreme. The Democrats are gaining voters.

[paleotn]

13. That's the thing about reactionaries....

They just can't back off. In fact, the more our society advances and changes, the more radical and desperate they become. So radical now that what's left of the Republican party has fully and overtly embraced fascism and Christian dominionism. They'd rather burn the Republic to the ground than give an inch at this point.

[Rebl2]

20. The last

sentence says it all 👍👍👍

[Marthe48]

22. r's want sex on demand for them

but do not want anyone else to have sex, except to make babies. I am tired of their efforts to intrude on our life choices. GOTV

[dalton99a]

24. Kick

[Hermit-The-Prog]

26. Remember who wants us to have a "lack of enthusiasm" and ROE YOUR VOTE

A lot of money is behind many of the reports you see on the media outlets. Most of what Americans read, hear, or watch comes through the big 6 media conglomerates. News is not all they do, by a long shot.

The radicalized Republican party has now gone far beyond de-regulation and tax cuts for the rich. They are now actively working to disenfranchise most voters and even reverse election results.

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

[ananda]

28. I think we are being played

They make the cruel horrible laws
so that we will accept the slightly
less cruel they make after rhe
backlash forces them to.