Election prediction from non-celebrity pundit who has studied politics for the last 35 years

[AZLD4Candidate]

Last edited Mon Aug 15, 2022, 02:44 AM - Edit history (1)

I know my opinions mean next to nothing since I'm not someone on TV, but here we go.

01: If the US Government didn't deny my wife her green card three times and I kept up my campaign, I believe I would have been elected into the AZ House from my district. The GOP incumbent barely won and the other Democrat was term limited. I believe the other Democrat from Yuma and me from Sells would have been together in Phoenix.

02: With that shameless plug out of the way. . .I believe the Democrats are going to pick up at least two governorships. I do believe Beto will eek out a win in Texas and I believe Maryland will flip. In my backyard, Hobbs is already above water and up by a minimum of 8% over Kelli "fruitcake" ward.

03: I see the Democrats picking up 10-15 seats in the House.

04: I see the Democrats HOLDING all seats they are defending as well as:
A: Picking up PA is definite. Doc Hollywood Carpetbagger is DOA.
B: Ohio is a probable based on trends and the fact that Vance's campaign is pretty much going nowhere.
C: Wisconsin seems to be done with Ron Johnson as he is underwater and can't crack anywhere near 45% in polls recently.

Probable flips:
A: Open Seat North Carolina: Will be a dirty, drag out race and the winner will win by .5% - 2%, but the Democrat is trending up
B: Florida: Rubio is not polling well enough and seems to be taking his re-election for granted. Val Demmings is climbing and Rubio has many negatives again him.
C: Missouri. Highly unlikely since MO has trended red since 2000, but it is an open seat.

Best case scenario: +10-15 in the House, PU six senate seats
Worst case scenario: Hold the house, pick up +3 in the Senate.

Ramification: Trumpism gets nationally rejected, Democrats still control two branches of government, and Manchin/Sinema are completely defanged.

[niyad]

1. From your keys to Goddess' ear! So mote it be!

[calimary]

4. + one...

Million.

[MagickMuffin]

15. So Mote It Be

Definitely voting for Beto!

[royable]

19. Wouldn't the mote be in Goddess' eye, not ear?

[niyad]

25. cute. mote is an archaic auxiliary verb meaning "may" or "might", as

you are no doubt aware.

[Ocelot II]

2. I sure hope you're right!

[cate94]

3. I sincerely hope you are right! N/t

[yankee87]

5. Blue tsunami

I agree with you. Kills me that Deathsantis will probably win in Florida. In fact Deathsantis was just in my state, Ohio, campaigning for Vance. Don’t know how it turned out.

[RicROC]

7. if Alan Grayson had decided to run for governor in Florida...

do you think he would have had a better chance of upsetting DeSantis?

[tritsofme]

17. Are you serious? Grayson would be crushed in a statewide race.

[Demsrule86]

6. Damn I hope you are correct. I wish your wife had been given citizenship...it is a terrible

system we have here. I hope you are both well and like where you are living...

[AZLD4Candidate]

10. She's still waiting for her visa, but we both love Bangkok.

[mopinko]

8. i smell a wave.

one that's gonna make 18 look like the splash pool at the public park.
it's the soccer moms that move elections, and i have.never.seen.them.so.pissed.

look for the gender gap to double at least.

[brush]

9. Let it be, let it be.

[Lunabell]

11. So mote it be!!

I'm trying to do my part by working for the Democrats in Florida. I believe Crist has an excellent chance of beating desatan and Val Demmings may just squeek in a win!!!

[AZLD4Candidate]

12. MY fear is Crist will flip back to the dark side, or be a DINO governor.

But anything is better than DeSatan.

[Zambero]

16. Crist has been a reliable Democratic House member

To have any chance as a state-wide candidate, a Florida Democratic candidate needs to be perceived by voters as moderate, or nothing beyond center-left. Val Demmings' law enforcement credentials are also a plus in this regard. Republicans, on the other hand, can veer further right and still be an odds-on-favorite at winning. A true-blue progressive gubernatorial nominee would easily hand DeSantis a second term and a shot at the 2024 GOP nomination, neither of which is a good scenario.

[halfulglas]

22. I think the worst Crist would govern is as an independent.

He has seen the Rs are truly the dark side and he may not be a liberal but he is a good person.

[EnergizedLib]

13. Inject that optimism into my veins

I’ll take any of your best case or worst case scenarios. Let’s go.

[madaboutharry]

14. That would be a great outcome for democracy.

I’m glad you and your wife are finding some peace.

[AZ8theist]

18. AZLD4 Candidate has very little credibility....

...but I certainly hope his prognostications are correct.

[AZLD4Candidate]

20. As I said, since I am not on TV, anything I say about elections will instantly be poo-poo'ed.

After all, what does a social studies teacher of 18 years experience teaching and researching this know anyway? We're all a dime a dozen, especially in Arizona.

[BigmanPigman]

21. I've been feeling the same way but don't want to say or write

it for fear I will jinx the whole thing. I am superstitious.

[patricia92243]

23. From your mouth to God's ear (I hope)

[PortTack]

24. Thx for sharing! I sure hope you are right