Some mostly good news from Sri Lanka
Hi all,
We're finally fully moved in to Colombo so I thought I'd let anybody curious know what the situation on the ground looks like in Sri Lanka, since the media in the west seems to have moved on to a new shiny whatever. Caveat this with the fact that we're in Colombo which is doing better than the provinces are.
The headline news is probably that things are OK-ish, for now. The immediate crisis of fuel and food distribution pretty much seems passed. India floated Sri Lanka a credit window that solved the immediate currency crisis, and the government adopted some kind of surprisingly effective rationing measures that allow everybody to get at least a little gasoline. This seems to stave off panic buying.
As a result, about two weeks ago, the black market price of gas dropped low enough that it was no longer profitable for taxi and rickshaw drivers to just sell their fuel allotment, so they started taking fares again, which basically opened the city back up. It's fits and starts (there are still supply problems everywhere, and it's a crapshoot what will and won't be in stock at a given store or restaurant, but every place at least has some stuff now, and the staples like rice and lentils aren't short -- again, at least in Colombo). But at least right now the idea of going back to the mass protests of a few weeks ago seems impossible.
The rolling blackouts are still a thing but they're getting shorter and less frequent, and they're scheduled in advance. One bright side of this is that the government has removed all permitting restrictions on home solar panel installation, and they're going up everywhere.
The former Prime Minister and President, the brothers Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa, have fled the country, and the Presidency is in the hands of longtime opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe (Sinhalese names are long but entirely phonetic so it's not as bad as it seems). He seems to be safe from any immediate call to step down but it's broadly understood this is a caretaker government until a new round of elections can be organized. (Sri Lanka's constitution has some unfortunate ambiguities about the balance of power between the President and the PM, which nobody wants to test right now.)
It's an open question how long this stability can last. If Sri Lanka doesn't get a debt restructuring in time for the winter planting the next year's harvest is at risk; should that worst eventuality turn out, then it will not just be a question of distribution and access but of literally not having enough food at all, which is a whole different ball game. Wickremesinghe is doing a pretty good job playing China and the IMF off each other but he can't do that forever and eventually the country will need to find a way to satisfy both of them enough to keep the money going.
So: immediate crisis averted, longer-term crisis still looming. I'll post whatever political stuff I can follow (I can't read Tamil so I miss a big part of the Island's political press), and if you're into beach and food pictures I'll hopefully be putting some of those in the Lounge as time allows.
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