The latest polling from Texas says that Paxton (AG) is in trouble and Abbott (GOV) is not

[brooklynite]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/abbott-holds-lead-in-texas-poll-gop-s-embattled-paxton-in-tie

So it’s not as easy as blaming Texas. Either Abbott is just not that unpopular or Beto is just not that appealing. FWIW, Aboott is conservative but he hasn’t joined the Trump election denial cult.

[bottomofthehill]

1. It's Texas

Beto’s message on guns and abortion are not really Texas answers. It is going to be a long road to victory for him.

[Elessar Zappa]

2. There's still three months of campaigning to go.

It will definitely be an uphill climb but I think Beto has a shot at overtaking Abbot. As long as Beto emphasizes Abbot’s failures (power grid, etc.) and doesn’t focus on gun control or abortion, he may overtake Abbot.

[ColinC]

3. I think time will tell

Polls should be taken with a grain of salt and we should stop buying into speculating on a candidate's feasibility based solely on polls. Especially after we saw what happened in Kansas.

[flying_wahini]

4. Nope, I have to disagree with the article.

I think BETO is gonna take it by at least 2-4%.he has made tremendous progress in the little counties where he lost last time. Lots of Republicans showing up at his rally’s.

Paxton deserves to to be in prison but the Dem he is running against is virtually unknown in Texas. I would live to see him lose for all kinds of reasons.

We shall see.

[brooklynite]

5. But that's the point...

Paxton is neck and neck with a candidate almost nobody here could name; Abbot has a solid lead against someone who’s been a name in Texas politics for years.

[dsc]

6. He is under 50 which is bad for an incumbent

He would be better off up by 5 and over 50

[brooklynite]

7. Beto is under 40 which is bad for a challenger

The odds that he'll sweep ALL the undecided votes is immeasurably small.

[dsc]

8. He has to win them 80 20

Which while not easy isn't unheard of

[brooklynite]

9. In my experience, undecided generally break 67-33.

[dsc]

11. 11/4 would be a tie

and that would be a 73 1/3 to 26 2/3 split. Again, doable but not super likely. The fact is any incumbent running below 50 is in trouble.

[Mr.Bill]

10. Sadly, Beto

committed Texas political suicide back when he said: "Yes, we are coming for your AR-15s".

I hope I am wrong, but that's a pretty big hill to climb in Texas. He's a great man, but he's living in the wrong state right now.

[GreenWave]

12. Seems to me

The Good Lord had had enough of Abbott and sent that tree a'crashing down upon him.
Then at the last split second Abbott sold his soul to the Devil promising him lives so he could barely survive.

Abbot is conspiring to kill as many Texans as possible with Covid as his major donor gets rich off Covid treatments. So naturally they want to expose as many as possible to rake in the profits in exchange for donations. Hence keep Texas open during the pandemic.

Killing them with cold too!

[onetexan]

13. Been seeing more Beto signs around our local area, pleasantly so :) I would not discount Beto.

With the collapse of the TX electrical grid & the increasingly authoritarian rulings, esp'ly the abortion ban, i'd bet Beto has a fighting chance and can do it.

[MagickMuffin]

15. I have been watching Beto townhall rallies and he is a straight shooter

His message is of

Women's rights (women being denied rights to our healthcare decisions)

Education and Teachers salaries (teachers want living wages)

Gun violence (guess what, sensible guns owners in Texas want reasonable gun legislation) and Beto has said for assault weapons the age should be 21 not 18 to purchase this weapon

Vets (making sure our vets are taken of)

Legalization of Cannabis


He notes how Greg Abbott doesn't even have to campaign because he takes their votes for granted. There are a lot of republicans who will be voting for Beto!k

Perhaps those who live outside of Texas should spend some time watching Beto townhall rallies, instead of sowing hopelessness, and doubts. Shameful!

[brooklynite]

16. Sorry, but...

I learned long ago that rally crowds aren't indicative of a winning campaign. If they were, Howard Dean would have been President in 1988 and Bernie Sanders would have been President in 2020. Most voters, especially those who are Independents or reachable Republicans, don't go to rallies.