If Trump either gets arrested or doesn't run for any reason, is DeSantis a lock for the nomination?

[Polybius]

If Trump doesn't (or can't) run, does any Republican have a chance to stop DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primaries? Who would even come in second?

[Walleye]

1. It's a long time between now and then. For all we know Liz Cheney could get nominated

I think the Republican Party is reaching a critical mass. Who knows how long until or how slow the implosion will be

[leftieNanner]

4. Liz certainly has her eye on the Oval! nt

[Walleye]

7. Well to my mind she is the only legitimate candidate they have right now, who could be president

[leftieNanner]

8. Her policies are BAD

But we know she's not gonna blow the place up.

[Polybius]

11. She'll just blow up every country that she doesn't like

One on criticisms that her and her dad have about Trump is that he's not as pro-war as they are.

[Walleye]

16. I do doubt she would sell our secrets to the Russians

[Polybius]

21. Correct

She'll just bomb them, which is arguably worse.

[Walleye]

13. Exactly. She is what we used to think of as the worst kind of conservative

But she at least seems honest and patriotic. Also probably capable of doing the job as far as intellect and experience. I don’t think there’s much danger of her actually getting the nomination, though. These cultists aren’t about to change

[Just A Box Of Rain]

19. If the Republican Party were to somehow turn from their embrace of right-wing populist/fascism

which seems unlikely to me in this moment, they do have a candidate in Larry Hogan (who seems like he is poised to run) who would be an alternative for those on "Team Normal."

[jcgoldie]

15. Liz has zero chance in the Maga party

She might as well be named Mitt Romney.

[leftieNanner]

2. Good Question

I don't think he will be the only one running. You can be sure Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley will toss their hats in. Pence still thinks he has a political future. There are some Republican Governors who might go for it. DeSantis certainly has the highest profile at this point. Whoever it is, guaranteed to be somebody toxic.

[Walleye]

18. So these GOP governors are going to try to outdo each other with repressive laws

[Thomas Hurt]

3. Being in prison didn't stop Hitler from getting to be dictator.

I saw a post earlier where Hannity is already prepping the cultists for the possibility of Donnie running as a convict. Technically the Pig could win the presidency and rule from a cell.

[Polybius]

12. True

But the intent of the post is what if Trump doesn't run.

[jmowreader]

52. Unless he's found guilty on a charge that disqualifies him

And there are at least one charge they’re looking at that does. Since Trump has committed so many crimes, finding something that’ll keep him out of office permanently won’t be hard.

[Thomas Hurt]

53. Exactly, that is where the technically part comes in.

If he were in a prison, not sure how practical it would be to actually be President. What are they going to do, make his cell into an Oval office and do his meeting via Zoom?

Also, the Pig could argue, not necessarily prevail, that the only qualifications for being President are in the Constitution and the Congress can't add to them...IOWs being convicted of an offense that disqualifies really doesn't.

[emulatorloo]

5. Are we sure DeSantis won't be defeated in Florida? Desantis 49.4% Crist 43.2%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html#!

[Polybius]

14. If he's leading by 6 he wins by 10

Voter suppression really hurts us in Florida.

[herding cats]

23. True, but the primary still hasn't been held.

I'm slightly hopeful Christ might gain some percentage points when he's the actual nominee.

But, yeah, it's Florida so I'm not optimistic. The state has a way of kicking Democratic hopes in the teeth.

[mahina]

26. Why are their numbers so durable in the face of the absolute worst of humanity

And ours slide so fast?

It makes no sense at all.

Joe’s doing the right thing and strengthening is.

The wingers steal democracy and our treasure in broad daylight. Trumps positive is one point shrewd of Joe’s yesterday on 538 and that’s an improvement.

It starts with bs like the birthed sh$t. Now saying Joe isn’t cognitively intact. With that orange asshole working for Russia for four years at least! In broad daylight!

My first question lingers. Why are their numbers so sticky in the high side? They should be in the 20’s with the fringe.

[Mr.Bill]

27. Because about 90% of them

only think of two things when they see the word Democratic. We exist purely to murder babies and take all their guns away.

[herding cats]

29. There's a sad reality of how they've conditioned their base for decades

This didn't happen overnight, and I'm not saying it won't eventually come back and bite them in the tush (i.e., Trump) but their loyal voters believe Democrats are pure evil. Not just ideologically different, but evil. Sure, it's baseless lunatic fringe fodder, but toss in some immigration lies and exaggerated crime statistics and before you know it their numbers stabilize in a comfort zone.

They've invested decades of time and effort into specific demographics for this reason.

[Demsrule86]

32. The primary has not happened. Nicky Fried is leading at the moment in recent polls...and in the

age of Roe, she might just beat him. Cheer up.

[bottrott]

6. Another year of daily drops like this

and the landscape may change drastically but for now, probably. I could see this damaging the entire Republican brand to the point Rep. Cheney may lose her seat this year but win the nod for the party running as a restoration candidate. That's not something I'd like to see either as she'd be far more formidable than the stable they've got right now.

[Walleye]

9. Exactly, they'd be crazy not to nominate her, she'd be hard to beat

But as long as they get their crazy candidates I guess they don’t mind losing, for example, the seats in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Their whole method of campaigning now is slandering and cheating. The idea of putting a good candidate never enters their head anymore. Also Trump is a big-time loser already. Does he really wanna get beat again?

[Torchlight]

10. I'm getting the sense the electorate is becoming fatigued by extremism and chaos.

o real data or evidence to support, just a gut feeling.

But a feeling I think that will get stronger and stronger the more these zealots open their mouths, illustrating who they are.

[RKP5637]

17. I would pick Liz Cheney any day before governor DeSatan. He's worse than Trump. Smart and dangerous.

[KentuckyWoman]

20. Depends on how bad Liz Cheney loses.

The Republican establishment will follow the wind. Whatever it takes to keep the money flowing.

[Polybius]

22. Well, we'll find out tonight

I think she loses by 40.

[herding cats]

24. 33% is my guess. nt

[Polybius]

45. Looks like she lost by about 37%

Right between our guesses.

[herding cats]

46. Yep!

We both had good guesses!

[Demsrule86]

31. Her loss tells us nothing about DeSantis.

[Polybius]

38. True

My reply was purely about Liz Cheney.

[bronxiteforever]

25. IMHO in 2 years out there is no lock for the nomination

The old saw is correct. 2 years is a lifetime.

Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Greg Abbott, Rick Scott, Mike Pompeo all bring GOP power bases to the primary fight. Desantis has substantial weaknesses too. He has never run a national campaign and he doesn’t seem to carry overwhelming popularity in his home state. Florida is very friendly to an own the libs platform. For the rest of the country, not so much.

[Yavin4]

40. In 2006, Rudy and Hillary were shoo-ins for the nomination of their respective parties.

Didn't quite work out that way.

[no_hypocrisy]

28. I don't think so.

You might see the same cast of characters in the 2016 line-up: Cruz, Rubio, Jeb, Pataki, Christie, Perry, and more.

[Demsrule86]

30. 24 is a long way off...and he has much bad stuff in his history...not matter he will lose if

he tries.

[JoanofArgh]

33. This is a good question. There's the fact that Americans don't like short Presidents.

DeSantis is 5'9' and while this isn't THAT short , the only other President of that height was Millard Fillmore in 1850. I don't know if that matters much today as long as the candidate is spewing the right propaganda.

[Polybius]

39. That is simply incorrect

There were many Presidents 5'9 and shorter. Harry Truman was probably shorter than his billed 5'9 height. Carter is 5'9 1/2.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heights_of_presidents_and_presidential_candidates_of_the_United_States#:~:text=U.S.%20presidents%20by%20height%20order,-Abraham%20Lincoln%20at&text=James%20Madison%2C%20the%20shortest%20president,4%20in%20(163%20cm).

[JoanofArgh]

44. You're right . I got it from a Business Insider article. I need to research before I comment.

[Flaleftist]

42. I really don't think the height of the candidate is in the top 10 considerations of most voters.

[ZonkerHarris]

34. It's the New GOP. Biggest racist dumbest asshole wins.

Ron sounds right for it.

[Cosmocat]

37. Yep

I live amongst "the base" and DeSantis is 1B to 45s 1A.

They know he isn't as overtly scumbagish, but would be a lot more orderly and effective with the transition to a chrisofascist idiocracy.

[Mr. Ected]

35. Don't count out Marjorie Taylor Greene

She has Putin's vote.

I'm absolutely not kidding.

[bluestarone]

49. YEP! Always thought she would be TFG's running mate

[BlueTsunami2018]

36. Usually, but not always, the person considered the lock doesn't win.

But in this case, I would feel safe putting money on DeSantis. The cult has been groomed for him for a while now. He’s seen as the natural successor to Piss Wig.

[ThoughtCriminal]

41. The only thing we can count on

Is that they will find the worst human being available. GOP primaries look for the most insane, least ethical, most repulsive candidate, and get literally aroused by the thought of who will "Own the Libs" the most.

[TexasBushwhacker]

43. Cruz wants it SO BAD

He was raised to believe he's God's chosen leader.

[herding cats]

47. He'll never get it.

Which makes me smile.

[TexasBushwhacker]

51. I predict the he and the other wannabes with tear each other apart

Pretty much like 2016, where Trump was able to emerge victorius. This time, assuming Trump doesn't run, I can see all the Trumpers ( Cruz, DeSantis, etc) getting bloody and someone like Liz Cheney, Kasich or Romney simply refusing to join in the dumpster fire. Obviously I wouldn't vote for any of them, but I could probably sleep at night if one was elected. I absolutely DO NOT want a theocrat to get elected. It's getting way to scary.

[tinrobot]

48. Not at all. Being the frontrunner two years out means nothing

Nobody knew about Carter in '74 or Obama in '06. Yet they both won over the assumed frontrunners.

I think Giuliani was the frontrunner in '06 as well. He fizzled.

Two years is a long time in politics.

[andym]

50. Unless he loses reelection, DeSantis will be a GOP Presidential nominee at some time in the future.

He epitomizes the Republican culture warrior type that so dominates the party.

[jmowreader]

54. Unless he's arrested, I don't think he HAS to run again

If one of Trump's elected fanboiz gets the presidential nomination, and there's a GOP majority in both houses of Congress, there's a decent chance they'll choose a VP who will agree to resign soon after taking office. The fanboi nominates Trump to replace him, Trump gets sworn in, then the fanboi himself resigns. Hey presto, Fat Fuck is president again and can do whatever the hell he wants.