FiveThirtyEight got me particularly hopeful on this fine Thursday

[SKKY]

According to their model:

Senate - 63 Dems / 37 Republicans (Was 60 - 40 for a while, but is moving in our favor)

House - 22 Dems / 78 Republicans (This is a slow-moving upward trend)

Biden's Approval is 40.4% approval (Also an upward trend)

The Trump nonsense, coupled with the fact that only the craziest of the crazy are winning their primaries, is clearly putting some wind in Democratic sails. If gas prices continue to fall, and inflation continues to ease, we just might be able to keep both houses of Congress.

[link:https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/|

[Omnipresent]

1. Voters are starting to pay attention...

And are realizing the GQP isn’t prepared to do jackshit for them, if they regain power.

[Lovie777]

4. Republicans have not done jackshit for American citizens for quite sometime ....

but to keep their cult constantly angry, hateful, uninformed of truths and downright bullies.

[gab13by13]

2. 538 is no longer reliable.

Most polls are used for propaganda today.

I gave up on polls when exit polling was disregarded. Exit polling is a reliable indicator of election fraud. When the US was a shining light on a hill and we would send people to validate elections in other countries the #1 tool was exit polling.

In the last election, exit polling was off in Maine, Kentucky, and Florida, but so what, Magats won.

[brooklynite]

5. Exit polling is by no means "a reliable indicator of fraud"

Its a reference point, based on people who choose to be interviewed. If you're a Republican who's been told not to trust the media, you're much more likely not to participate.

I assume by the way, you're suggesting that the public election results in Maine, Kentucky and Florida weren't accurate? Is so, do you have any actual evidence?

[gab13by13]

7. Yes I do, exit polling.

[brooklynite]

11. So, lets take Maine as an example

The 2020 election (presumably ONLY for Collins; not for Trump) was rigged despite a Democratic Attorney General appointed by a Democratic Governor not noticing? Or were they part of the conspiracy? Add to which, point to charges of rigged voting by Sara Gideon, the Maine Democratic Party, etc?

[gab13by13]

14. I know this,

538 and Rasmussen and others are the people who bash exit polling. They claim that exit polling favors Democrats because they are more willing to participate in the poll and they are usually more enthusiastic about the election. So, organizations like Gallup who used faulty data in its prediction for Barack Obama's election have to make excuses when the actual people who voted contradict them.

It is one thing for an organization like 538 to be wrong before votes are cast, they have an excuse. What is the excuse when actual vote totals don't match exit polling? Is it always polling error? I repeat, why do we use exit polling in 3rd world countries to determine fair elections?

[ColinC]

10. Exit polls might be one small tool to help identify election fraud, but they are far from perfect

...and not the only one. Exit polls can still be wrong in a fair and free election.

[brooklynite]

3. Clarifications: 538 isn't predicting margins; those are probabilities of majority status.

[Deminpenn]

6. 538's process is to run 1000s of iterations of the same

data to come up with probabilities. That's fine statistically, but if their input data is not good, then the output is problematic. Haven't looked at 538 in a long time, but the polls they grab for input are not analyzed for much more than how the pollster performed against the actual election results. I suppose 538 believes this is a good substitute for not knowing the LV or turnout models or weighting system the pollster used or uses.

If 538 is still using all the polling data, then I think they are either missing or underestimating current trends by using stale data.

[Peacetrain]

8. Today is just a bit brighter isn't it

[Walleye]

9. Every day we hear more horror stories about the abortion ruling

[Novara]

12. 538 has been very wrong, so I no longer trust them

In fact, I don't trust any polls since 2016.

[Amishman]

16. So have all the pundits. 538's still the best of that low performing crowd

predicting politics is really hard

[Novara]

17. And that doesn't say much, does it?

[Emile]

13. We would win almost every time if democrats vote.

We are the majority!

[SKKY]

15. This x 10000!!!

We would indeed.