Colin's 2022 election predictions

[ColinC]

1)Sarah Palin is not going to be elected to congress
2)Democrats will gain seats in the house and senate
3) Democrats will probably squeak to a victory in Florida and Texas governorship races.
4) Democrats will probably obtain a majority of full control in state legislatures and governorships.
5) Republicans are going to claim victory and say that the election was rigged and probably try another insurrection.

[brooklynite]

1. 1) Maybe

2) No (definitely not in the House; too few Districts are actually competitive)
3) No (no indication that Abbott or DeSantis are really vulnerable
4) No (chance of picking up 2-3 chambers at most)
5) No (hard to have an insurrection against a decentralized target

[ColinC]

2. We will see

For 5, I think some people will try, and it will probably get in the news. But probably not much further than that.

[Bettie]

11. Well then,

I guess there's no point in continuing on, if we're going to lose everything.

[Polybius]

14. We definitely won't lose everything

We'll pick up seats in the Senate, maybe even 4. But Brooklynite is right. The OP's picks are not happening.

[Bettie]

18. I don't think that anything is impossible

unlikely? Yes, but I'm not about to pour cold water over optimism.

Better to shoot for the stars and miss than to declare defeat before the first vote is cast.

[Polybius]

22. Two are impossible

The GOP won't lost control of governorships in 2022, they control too many. Same with state legislatures. They also would attempt an insurrection. They might in 2024 though.

[brooklynite]

17. Didn't say that, did I?

I didn't agree with the extreme projections of victory in the House, Governorships, State Leg, etc.

[rubbersole]

3. DeSantis is trailing in the polls. The repubs are in for some real bad press.

America has a two week attention span. Selling it state secrets is relatable to just about everyone. We'll see.

[brooklynite]

8. No, he's not.

NO poll shows DeSantis behind.

Univ. of North Florida 8/8 - 8/12 DeSantis +8
Mason-Dixon DeSantis +8
USA Today/Suffolk DeSantis +6
St. Pete Polls DeSantis +6
Susquehanna DeSantis +

[Sky Jewels]

10. He doesn't have a D opponent yet

so it will be interesting to see if/how this changes after the FL primary.

[brooklynite]

19. He polls ahead of both Crist and Fried.

[Sky Jewels]

20. Right, but that's based on a theoretical premise and neither one has campaigned as the nominee.

I'm not super optimistic, because, hey, it's fucking Florida, but stranger things have happened.

[Demsrule86]

21. It is not the same...we won't know where we stand until after Tuesday.

[brooklynite]

25. DeSantis has a 50% approval rating...

Not a sign of significant vulnerability.

[rubbersole]

28. You are correct.

I read a headline about desantis dropping 8 points. It was his approval rating. My bad.

[Polybius]

15. No he's not, he's leading in every poll

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_fried-7325.html

[ColinC]

39. Again, Im sounding like a broken record, but are we really so confident right now that polls are

Accurately gauging the national, state and local attitudes and potential turnout? They have been enormously off in the last several special elections -not least of which was Kansas. Polls should be taken with a massive grain of salt at this point. Special elections are far more indicative of the general mood and what will happen in November.

[Celerity]

4. All are plausible except for number 4, which is pretty likely not happening (especially the state

legislatures, which the Rethugs have very much gerrymandered.)

[ColinC]

5. Gerrymanders only work to an extent

In a massive wave election, they will likely not hold. I think this will be a massive wave election. Most predictions are based on the 1st prediction. If Palin loses, that indicates a pretty strong momentum towards Democrats in this immeediately post wave election year. Time will tell though. And if I'm right -everybody who says I'm wrong, will owe my dog jerky

[Celerity]

16. No one is talking about a massive Blue wave election, have yet to see that one, and even then that

Red Wall at state legislature level will very like not yield a net +9 state gain for us (which is need to take control). Remember it is more than 9 flipped chambers needed to flip the entire legislature, the non Nebraska involved (see below) minimum needed would be 14 chambers flipped R to D (the 3 tied with one chamber each red chamber there flipped, which takes the count to 30 R, 20 D, then we would need to flip 10 Red chambers in 5 Red states, which takes it to 25-25, and finally one more red chamber in a current Red state to to take it to 25 D, 24 R, 1 tied.

In THEORY, if we flipped the unicameral (the only state that only has one chamber) Nebraska as one of those 5 Red state complete flips, then the number would be 13 chamber flips needed at minimum, but I can assure you, we have zero shot at flipping the NE legisllature Blue, it simply is not happening.

24 seats (of the 49 total total seats that comprise the NE legislature) are up for grabs, BUT only 14 seats are actually being contested. We would have to hold all our current seats and flip 8 Red seats to Blue from those 14 seats to get to 25 D, 24 R, AND, there may not even be 8 Rethug currently held seats that are contested, let alone remotely possible flips.

[ColinC]

26. I agree, nobody is talking about it.

That doesn't convince me it won't happen. Wasserman has alluded to it by pointing out how the special elections are matching 2018 levels.

[Celerity]

30. even if it does, that Red Wall at state legislated level will almost assuredly hold

we would have to flip many chambers in deep red states that have not had Dem control in ages, sometimes in multiple decades.

Only 6 chambers are actually good shots to flip R to D (VA House, MN Senate, and both NH chambers, both AZ chambers), plus the harder MI House and NC Senate

here are the most likely state flips to get to 14 chambers and a 25 D, 24 R, 1 tied Dem majority

first we have to clean sweep all chamber we now hold

then

the 3 split states

we need to these 3 chambers to 3 flip to D

VA Senate (very possible)
AK Senate not easy at all (and also end power sharing in the House with the Dems taking sole control, which is a huge 'IF' I never covered above)
MN Senate (very possible)

now we need 11 more Rethug chambers flipped to Dems

the following are all red in both chambers (many with very large Rethug majorities) and all are gerrymandered to large degrees

many of these are in the basically impossible category, but I am being as expansive as possible, and including many that are in the 1 per cent or less chance

NH (one of only 2 states (with AZ) with a good chance of both chambers flipping R to D actually happening)
GA extremely hard
FL extremely hard
AZ see NH
WI extremely hard
IA extremely hard
MI House perhaps
OH extremely hard
PA pretty hard, and now gerrymandered even more
TX very hard
NC Senate perhaps

many of those chambers are almost impossible to flip

and in any Red state not listed, they are impossible

bottom line

that's only 8 chambers (and by no means are all 8 anywhere near a lock to flip R to D), so 6 chambers short (7 or 8 if AK stays split (7 if the one off flip in my original 14 minimum needed also includes the other chamber in that state flipped as well) or 8 (more likely), and other than those 8 chambers where we have a decent shot, the rest are really heavy lifting, or basically nearly impossible, or finally, outright impossible to flip

plus we have to clean sweep defend ALL our Blue chambers, which is also not am absolute lock (NV Senate, MN House, CO Senate, and VA Senate are vulnerable Dem controlled chambers)

[ColinC]

31. I think if it happens, it will be this year. If not this year, it may never.

The turnout in these special elections is showing huge momentum towards Democrats -reflecting a lot of what we saw right before other wave elections.

[Celerity]

34. My detailed analysis shows the possibility is simply not there, we are too dominated at state

assembly levels atm due to a multiplicity of reasons, especially the gerrymanders.

Some on here are even acting like retaining both chambers at federal level is now a fait accompli, a sure thing, in the bag. It is not.

I wish it was, but I do not confuse my desires for rational analysis.

[Cosmocat]

46. You are right

nm

[Demsrule86]

23. That is true. I saw a Gerrymander fall in Georgia at the state level...of course it was our

Democratic gerrymander so I wasn't happy. At that time Democrats had the governorship Roy Barnes was governor. Overwhelming voting like we saw in Kansas can destroy a gerrymander. Some here are old political hands and think about precedent and history. But I have a feeling this election is different...number 3 maybe...Roosevelt and Bush II won the first midterms. And I do not believe it will be easy to poll...especially since the polls account for party, historical precedent etc.

[ColinC]

40. Gerrymanders certainly create favorable odds for a party by packing voters

But those particular odds can only help so much when everything shifts against them. I also seem a bit surprised how much faith folks are putting in current polling and the same formulas that got Kansas so enormously wrong. They can certainly help us get some clues of the national sentiment, but when they create likely voter models largely based on a completely different election with drastically different factors at play, they can't be taken with more than a grain of salt imho.

[lees1975]

6. I like them since they tend to agree with mine...

1. Absolutely. Even with ranked-choice voting, she's not going to get it. And actually, the Democrat in that race, who is winning a plurality, is outperforming the polling data by over 10%. Is that more Dobbs-Roe effect? If that's an indication, the Democratic turnout might be a whole heck of a lot stronger than anyone previously thought.
2. There are a lot of races that are showing up as being far more competitive than predicted earlier. I would predict for certain at least +2 in the senate, maybe more
3. Republicans bank their choices on weak Democratic turnout in mid-terms. Polls don't really have an accurate measurement of exactly what that's going to be. If I were betting, my money would be on Beto, but if you look at the senate race in Florida, Demings has inched ahead of Rubio statewide.
4. Democrats will gain a lot of state legislative seats. I predict that Democrats will have the majority in both houses of the Arizona legislature, and will have a female Democratic governor. Others, not so sure.
5. That will be their claim after every election they lose, now. But that gets old fast, and there aren't enough voters who believe those lies to make much of a difference. Insurrection? A few hotheads will commit violence, but there are now hundreds who have lost their jobs, served time as a result of January 6th.

[Cosmocat]

7. Eh

1) I can't say about Palin

2) Feel it is realistic that they can get a seat or two extra in the senate They COULD pick up seats in the House, but realistically we can just hope that they find a way to hold it.

3) I have yet to see a poll where Desantis is not ahead, and most times at least 50%. Same with Abbott, only he is around 49% and Beto is even further away from him. I really like Beto, and he is fighting the good fight, but it is too much for any D to win state wide there, and it is at the point where Florida is now Lucy pulling the ball out from under Charlie Brown for Ds - I think best case scenario there is Demmings pulls out the Senate seat cause Marco is so lame.

4) Not even close, we just are not going to have the kind of wave to break the R gerrymandering at the state level.

[ColinC]

35. I don't put any faith in polls

With the exception of trends. Polls are trending towards democrats heavily, but the likely voter models are substantially underestimating the levels of young people and women voters -which recent special elections and the Kansas referendum easily disprove IF (and this is still a big if) this general sentiment holds.

[Cosmocat]

37. Polls are trending slightly our way

We were in a very precarious spot as a midcterm after a D won potus, we always get our butts handed to us. Factoring in gas prices and inflation ...

The SC abotion ruling definitely changed the dynamics some, but we are not getting a wave election ourcway.

[ColinC]

38. The SC ruling changed the dynamics enormously

And polls have failed to reflect the extent to which they did. Elections, however, have been far more clear.

[Cosmocat]

43. Ok

Nm

[ColinC]

44. Look at actual recent voter turnout metrics compared to wave elections.

That data suggests we are nearing a blue wave election. Polls have so far failed to adjust their likely voter models to recent trends. It is part of the reason recent polls were more than twenty points off the Kansas election result.

[Cosmocat]

45. Ok

Nm

[hamsterjill]

9. I wish I had your optimism.

But I’m too much of a realist.

[onenote]

12. Wishful thinking bordering on fantasy

Sorry, but most of your predictions are based more on hope than reality.

Palin may not win, but a Democrat isn't going to win either.
The governorships of Texas and Florida are going to stay in repub hands.
There is zero chance Democrats take control of a majority of state houses

We may continue to hold the Senate (and possibly pick up a seat or two) but it is unlikely we'll keep control of the House. We certainly won't gain seats.

[Demsrule86]

24. That is nonsense. In order to win anything, you first have to believe that you can... I hope I

am right and this will be an unprecedented election and there will be surprising wins for Democrats. Alaska may be the first.

[Bettie]

32. I agree

We need to believe and work to make it happen.

Defeating Chuck Grassley is a heavy lift, but I think Mike Franken can do it, though, I'm sure the guy who knows everyone has reservations and complaints about him.

[ColinC]

48. I was at least right about Alaska!

With one more week, I’m interested in seeing how the other predictions go. All I know, is the more doors we knock, the closer we will be to manifesting some good news!

[Polybius]

13. All good news?

No bad news predictions? At least give one so it makes the rest more believable.

[ColinC]

27. No. It's all or nothing with me

[pwb]

29. I think you are right. Woman will turn pukes on their heads.

We don't like their America.

[Elessar Zappa]

33. All are possible except number 4.

Imo, of course.

[ananda]

36. This sure is optimistic.

Well, we'll see.......

[vercetti2021]

41. I love your enthusiasm

Jesus christ some others here think that we are fucked despite everything that has happened over the summer.

[ColinC]

42. I would be worried too if polls have shown any bit of accuracy in regards to recent elections.

But alas they have not, so the faith we should be putting in them is quite limited.

[Cosmocat]

47. It appears we aren't fucked this election

We are in a mid term after a d won the white house. It's always a rough go, plus gas prices and inflation. Fundamentals are flat bad

The SC abortion ruling appears to be kicking in and outside of their transparent desire to dismantle american demicracy, Rs are directionless.

If it were a potus election year that could push a MAJOR wave.

But the starting point is us being down a lot, so it pretty much gives us a chance to pull a major upset and able to keep the senate and possibly the house.

Just no way we get a majority of state assemblies w the gerrymandering at that level, I live in one of those states and know we are likely to win our gov and senate seats clearly, but not a chance in hell to get the state senate, a VERY distant chance we get the house.

This is mostly wishful thinking, it isnt just gerrymandering. It's about quality candidates, organizing ... we don't have anything going like Dean's 50 state push, and as batshit crazy as our politics is generally and how fucking dangerous the Rs are now gotta believe we don't have the massive slate of candidates to do it, either.