NY-23 Special Election: Democrat Max Della Pia leading 59/41 (23% reported)

[brooklynite]

Max Della Pia Democrat 8,668 +59.4%
Joseph Sempolinski Republican 5,920 +40.6%

old district lines; last Special elections before November.

[Claustrum]

1. Is this the R+12 district?

The number doesn't look good as we expect same day will lean more republican.

[ColinC]

5. Dem pulling ahead still.

This isn't one that we expect to win -but if it even comes close, that is very, very good news.

[Claustrum]

7. Yes. I am surprised that the same day vote seems to be holding for us.

I was expecting the republican would catch up as same day votes come in. It doesn't appear that way. If we win this one, it would send wave over that "red wave" that the right and MSM were shouting about. Instead, a blue wave is likely.

[ColinC]

8. So far, so good.

There's still a bit more to count. But if these votes truly come out with clear Dem victories, there will likely be some major adjustments on behalf of the media prediction pundits.

[Claustrum]

10. Yes. I think the MSM expected us to lose this one.

The district is supposed to be R+12 or R+15 (seen both numbers being thrown around and no idea which one is right). So democrat picking up this seat will be important and a big surprise.

[ColinC]

11. I still expect to lose it, but it isn't narrowing as quickly as I would have expected after 53% of

the vote. Could be close!

[Johnny2X2X]

2. It's 60-40 with 47% counted

Lead holding up.

[ColinC]

4. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

[ColinC]

3. Now at 60.1

Wasserman noted a blue mirage, but at least in this case, the Democrat seems to still be pulling ahead as the Eday vote comes in. It would be insane if we win this one!

[Sky Jewels]

6. Holy crap!

Very exciting!

[Johnny2X2X]

9. It's tightening

But still a 14 point lead with almost 2/3s the votes counted. This would be a huge upset, but if it’s a loss within 5 points it’s a great sign for Dems in November.

[ColinC]

12. Absolutely insane.

Refreshing twitter like crazy to see if Wasserman calls it.

[Johnny2X2X]

13. Down to an 8 point lead with 71% counted.

Not looking great. But still possible.

[ColinC]

16. 50-50 with 81% in.

If this comes within 10%, I still think that's very good news for Democrats since this was R+16 in 2020...

[ibegurpard]

14. If we can win this one

We can take out Elise Stefanik

[Claustrum]

17. Dave Wasserman just called this for R.

Link to tweet