So like, did Pat Ryan win the NY19 Special, or what?

[ColinC]

CNN says 99% reporting with Ryan ahead 3.4%

[Claustrum]

1. No one is calling it.

NY counts mail in ballots up to 7 days as long as it's mailed on or before today. If the margin is so close, I think this race will remain not called.

[ColinC]

3. mail-in favor the Dem though...

Unless late mail-ins don't

[Claustrum]

7. From what I read from 538 and listening to TV,

they say it favors Ryan. But they aren't calling it because you can't be sure what the spread is until the votes are counted. They only call the race if they think the current lead is higher than the remaining votes.

[DemocracyWins202]

2. The mail in ballots are left to count

Which would benefit Ryan so yeah I think he has won.

[msongs]

4. nyt reports that same spread at 11:18 w only 88% in nt

[ColinC]

10. My guess is the actual vote remaining is somewhere between NYT and CNN estimates

[Sympthsical]

5. Lot of remaining votes according to NYT

Namely Ostego county, which went Trump 47% -43% in 2020.

So, they're probably going to wait this one out.

[Iwasthere]

9. Not enough here to overcome

Ryan is NOT going to lose 90% or 100%

[Sympthsical]

12. There are others, too

That's just the biggest chunk at the moment. Then mail-in.

I suspect he'll win with similar 2020 numbers.

[brooklynite]

6. Mail-in ballots haven't been counted.

Several Counties haven't finished reporting.

[elleng]

8. Dunno, gotta wait for Kornacki to report latest numbers.

[Raftergirl]

11. NYT percentage counted per County

With 92% of vote counted

Pat Ryan
Democrat 65,486 +51.3%51.3%
Marc Molinaro
Republican 62,201 +48.7%48.7
Total reported
127,687


County Ryan Molinaro Est. rpt.
Ulster 63% 37% 94%
Dutchess 48 52 >95%
Columbia 57 43 >95%
Greene 39 61 >95%
Sullivan 43 57 78%
Rensselaer 45 55 86%
Otsego 48 52 86%
Delaware 41 59 >95%
Schoharie 34 66 92%
Montgomery 34 66 83%
Broome 30 70 84%

[ColinC]

13. F it. I'm gonna drink my celebratory beer anyways.

Hopefully I don't regret it.

[elleng]

14. YES RYAN WINS!

[Johnny2X2X]

15. CNN call it?

Their website has a check mark next to Ryan!

[walkingman]

16. Hell Yea - beware of the coming blue wave!!!