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Cook Political Report: Red Wave Looks More Like a Ripple
Cook Political Report: “That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall.”“Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in. That’s roughly the same margin President Biden had carried the seat by in 2020. The result shouldn’t be shocking, considering Democrats had outperformed in other recent specials in NE-01 and MN-01. But Molinaro, regarded as a pragmatic executive of blue-leaning Dutchess County, had led in multiple polls throughout the race. Ryan, the younger Ulster County executive and decorated Army veteran, prevailed after a late push to make abortion rights the centerpiece of the campaign.”
“What should be most worrying for Republicans is that NY-19 is the kind of district they need to win to have any chance of rolling up big numbers in November. With few Democrats sitting in Trump districts, Republicans’ success depends on picking off Democrats in CD’s Biden carried by six points or less. Not that long ago, that looked feasible.”
https://politicalwire.com/2022/08/24/red-wave-looks-more-like-a-ripple/
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/2022-primaries/red-wave-looks-more-ripple?redirect=630623cca1c54
26 replies
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= new reply since forum marked as read
Democrats to make historic gains in House
As president's party, Democrats would buck historical curse
ATLANTA (AllPolitics, November 3) -- Election '98 proved to be a huge night for Democrats, as CNN estimates that they will pick up four seats in the House. Any gains would mark the first time the party in control of the White House has gained seats in an off-year election since 1934. But a four-seat gain would fall short of the 11 seats Democrats need to retake control from the Republicans.
Early returns show that throughout the nation only one House Democratic incumbent was lose -- Rep. Jay Johnson who was defeated in Wisconsin 8th congressional district. In the 1998 election cycle, Democrats have been battling a historical curse. Only the once since the Civil War has the president's party made gains during a midterm election, and since World War II, losses in the House have averaged 27 seats.
The number of seats lost has been even more extreme in elections held midway through the president's second term, like this year, in a phenomenon dubbed the "six-year itch." Over the past five "six-year itch" elections, the party holding the White House has lost an average of 44 House seats.
Though a big swing in the House makeup was not expected going into the Tuesday election, most analysts were predicting that Republicans would make modest, single-digit gains.
(snip)
https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1998/11/03/election/house/control/
As president's party, Democrats would buck historical curse
ATLANTA (AllPolitics, November 3) -- Election '98 proved to be a huge night for Democrats, as CNN estimates that they will pick up four seats in the House. Any gains would mark the first time the party in control of the White House has gained seats in an off-year election since 1934. But a four-seat gain would fall short of the 11 seats Democrats need to retake control from the Republicans.
Early returns show that throughout the nation only one House Democratic incumbent was lose -- Rep. Jay Johnson who was defeated in Wisconsin 8th congressional district. In the 1998 election cycle, Democrats have been battling a historical curse. Only the once since the Civil War has the president's party made gains during a midterm election, and since World War II, losses in the House have averaged 27 seats.
The number of seats lost has been even more extreme in elections held midway through the president's second term, like this year, in a phenomenon dubbed the "six-year itch." Over the past five "six-year itch" elections, the party holding the White House has lost an average of 44 House seats.
Though a big swing in the House makeup was not expected going into the Tuesday election, most analysts were predicting that Republicans would make modest, single-digit gains.
(snip)
https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1998/11/03/election/house/control/
(Only time I ever lost my lunch on wine in college, MD2020 was the culprit!)
Worshiping that porcelain god.
