Special Elections Signal Better News for Democrats

[applegrove]

Special Elections Signal Better News for Democrats

August 24, 2022 at 12:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 114 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/08/24/special-elections-signal-better-news-for-democrats/

"SNIP.......

FiveThirtyEight: “In your typical midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president, you’d expect Republicans to be flying high. But the evidence is mounting that the national political environment right now actually leans toward Democrats.”

“Up until mid-June, special elections for the U.S. House during the Biden presidency were pointing to a national political environment that was neutral or a little bit Republican-leaning. On average, Republicans did 2 points better in those elections than you’d expect based on the districts’ FiveThirtyEight partisan leans.”

“That all changed, though, starting in late June — immediately after the Supreme Court issued its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, overturning the constitutional right to abortion. There have been four first-past-the-post special House elections since that decision, and Democrats have outperformed their expected margins in those elections by an average of 9 points.”

.....SNIP"

[Rizen]

1. This is how people are:

You can tell them not to put a lit candle on a box of oily rags because it will start a fire and they'll still do it. But once the box actually catches fire then they'll take action to stop it. The story of the 2016 election.