Is the idea that Dems will lose the House solely based on history?

[LakeArenal]

[onenote]

1. No.

[Demsrule86]

2. That is what I think. They put that in the polls as a parameter...they add it to the GOP numbers.

[Meadowoak]

3. history, and its the narritive the media wants to push, they love a good horse race dontchaknow.

[Hortensis]

12. Yes. Not just horse race. It's often more pernicious than that.

A negative prognosis acts to suppress the vote for that candidate/party. Some people lose heart and stay home. Some look for the "winner" to join. Etc.

[hlthe2b]

4. That and gerrymandering....

[Demsrule86]

8. The thing about gerrymandering is that an over-vote will destroy. I saw it first hand...and we have

Roe which I believe will bring out a massive number of votes. Also, Biden has been doing a great job and his poll numbers are up.

[hlthe2b]

9. That is our hope...

[Hermit-The-Prog]

13. Battle cry of this election: Roe your vote, up and down the ballot!

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

Donate to 38 House candidates: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217067267
Stick 'em up for a blue wave: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217078977

[getagrip_already]

18. and voter suppression....

desatan's poll police as an example. constitutional sherrifs are another. frwnj groups like proud boys and boogaloo providing poll "security".

[genxlib]

5. Plus the economy

The history problem isn't just a trend. It is a real reflection of how voters react to the political situation. Winners relax and losers get motivated. Besides that, for some reason Centrists love divided Government and tend to vote that way.

The economy makes for a very difficult environment.

If the GOP weren't shooting themselves in the foot it would be a very bad cycle indeed.

[Demsrule86]

11. No offense but where I live, the economy is good. Jobs are plentiful...paid 3.25 yesterday for

gas and it is lower today. We have the best unemployment rate in decades...so there is nothing wrong with the economy.

[genxlib]

19. No doubt things are looking better headed into voting season

Jobs have not been the problem.

Inflation has been the big problem. Gas is coming down but the rest is mostly just leveling off.

Grocery and housing prices are a challenge for people and they hold the governing party responsible whether it is fair or not.

As a secondary issue. the stock market is also down from previous highs. It is bouncing back some now but long term savings effects how people feel about the economy.

I mostly agree with your view but the FED is so hell-bent on lowering inflation that they will keep undermining growth until they bring it down.

[Gore1FL]

6. A combination of that conventional wisdom and gerrymandering.

I don't think the current American electorate follows the models of the past.

[Demsrule86]

14. And everyone was sure that Biden coudn't win after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada...

because of 'history'....how did that work out?

[Gore1FL]

20. I don't recall that. Do you have a link?

I am not really sure of your point, either. Can you please clarify that, also?

[carpetbagger]

7. History of incumbency and economic modeling,

Yes. By those standards, it'll be a huge red wave. So the real question is how much republicans will underperform due to trying to strap the country on the crazy rocket.

[Wounded Bear]

10. Mostly. The old "history repeats itself" canard...

that fails to account for current conditions and trends.

I'm hoping for a huge surge in youth vote in line with 2018-20. We need to continue the blue wave that swept trump out of office.

Dems managing to get some shit done in the last couple of months has to help, and the backlash from the Dobbs decision should as well. Plus, those Parkland kids are still out there, quietly registering voters and encouraging people to get to the polls.

I'm actually pretty hopeful we will actually expand our seats in the House and Senate. It doesn't hurt that the repubs have put up some really bozo candidates.

[brooklynite]

16. What's wrong with basing predictions on historical trends?

nb: that's a baseline element; add to that general attitude of voters about the economy, the net negative approval of president Biden, the number of incumbent Democrats who've chosen not to run again, the number of Democratic seats made competitive through redistricting, etc.

Democrats are looking BETTER than they were three months ago, but its still going to be a long slog to hold the House.

[Effete Snob]

17. This is very simple

We must win 36 of the following races.

Just pick the 36 we will win, and post them.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/house/elections-map.html

AZ4
CA13
CA22
CA27
CA47
CA49
IL6
IL13
IN1
MD6
ME2
MI3
MI7
MI8
MN2
NC1
NH1
NH2
NV1
NV3
NV4
NY3
NY4
NY17
NY18
NY19
NY22
OH9
OR5
PA17
RI2
TX28
VA7
WA8

AKAL
AZ1
AZ6
CA40
CA41
CA45
CO8
IA1
IA3
IL17
KS3
NC13
NE2
NJ7
NM2
OH1
OH13
PA1
PA7
PA8
TX15
VA2
WI3

[spanone]

21. I remember how SHOCKED the media was when Democrats took house in 2018

Democrats made a net gain of 41 seats.

[lame54]

22. No - it's the rigged state laws

[ColinC]

23. Pretty much

It is a very strong prior to try and overcome without a massive amount of evidence. But we are, nonetheless, beginning to see a massive amount of evidence to support getting past this prior.

[Amishman]

24. No, a district by district bottom up analysis doesn't paint a rosy picture either.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2022-house/

Pubs have 216 that lean their way, we have 196. The remainder are toss ups.

Geography isn't helping us at all, with so much of our base concentrated in urban districts.

Cook PVI has the bluest district as +40. The reddest is +33.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list

That +40 isn't an outlier. There are 12 blue districts with greater than +33.

Can't blame those super blue districts on gerrymandering either. Of those 12 that are more than +33, 11 of them are in blue states. The other is in PA, which has a fairly reasonable map after the last redraw. None are in red states.

[Freddie]

25. Some hopeful signs

Here in a purple Philly burb, our execrable R state rep gets re-elected like clockwork, such that his Dem opposition doesn’t try very hard. Not this year. I see a LOT of signs for the Dem and only 1 or 2 for the incumbent. I think we have a real chance here.

[JustAnotherGen]

26. I think so - but this election is different

Just as 2020 was.

Now off to read the comments / thoughts of my fellow members on this.