Greenland ice sheet set to raise sea levels by nearly a foot, study finds

[Nevilledog]

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Juliet Eilperin
@eilperin
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BREAKING: Greenland ice sheet set to raise sea levels by nearly a foot, a new study finds, even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gas emissions today. By @chriscmooney #climate

washingtonpost.com
Greenland ice sheet set to raise sea levels by nearly a foot, study finds
Human-driven climate change has set in motion massive ice losses in Greenland that couldn’t be halted even if the world stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, according to a new study published...
8:12 AM · Aug 29, 2022

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/29/greenland-ice-sheet-sea-level/

No paywall
https://archive.ph/B4RBj

Human-driven climate change has set in motion massive ice losses in Greenland that couldn’t be halted even if the world stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, according to a new study published Monday.

The findings in Nature Climate Change project that it is now inevitable that 3.3 percent of the Greenland ice sheet will melt — equal to 110 trillion tons of ice, the researchers said. That will trigger nearly a foot of global sea-level rise.

The predictions are more dire than other forecasts, though they use different assumptions. While the study did not specify a time frame for the melting and sea-level rise, the authors suggested much of it can play out between now and the year 2100.

“The point is, we need to plan for that ice as if it weren’t on the ice sheet in the near future, within a century or so,” said William Colgan, a study co-author who studies the ice sheet from its surface with his colleagues at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, in a video interview.

“Every study has bigger numbers than the last. It’s always faster than forecast,” Colgan said.

*snip*

[Hermit-The-Prog]

1. Bet we get there in 25 years or less.

[DFW]

6. I agree

The progression will be geometric, not linear. It will be an avalanche, not a snow flurry, and the majority of the Miami Dolphins living in Miami Beach will have flippers and blowholes instead of steroid-enhanced biceps.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

7. It's the damned positive feedback loops.

Methane released from the tundra is one of the worst -- more heat yields more release which speeds up heating.

And we have to produce more energy to counteract the increasing effects of using more energy. At least that one can be mitigated by distributed, solar and wind energy production.

[DFW]

9. Germany's Greens are singing the blues already

Ever since the “realos,” the realist wing, won out over the “fundis,” the fundamentalist wing, the Greens have been the pragmatic progressives on the German political scene. Even they have recently said that Germany will probably need some energy from coal power plants to get through the winter. Solar and wind are very big here, but they missed the boat 20 years ago when some neighbors got way out in front with both. Whether they were stupid, naïve, or just in Putin’s pocket, German strategists thought that post-Soviet Russia would be a benign giant trading partner, and nothing of a threat any more. They figured they were dealing with a great guy named Vladimir, and not someone who saw himself as Vladimir the Great.

[relayerbob]

2. This will all happen much faster than they are saying publicly

The models they use and the results they talk about are generally average to best case, since they can't get people to listen to them. Sadly, real-time data is worse than the predictions, and systemic collapse is not at all unusual.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophe_theory

[orthoclad]

3. A foot may not sound like much, but

that's a YUGE amount of water ocean-wide. Coastal infrastructures are engineered to existing standards of high tide levels. All of that infrastructure is now threatened. Trillions of dollars.

Let's not forget the effect of all that new fresh water on the ocean current circulation, which is globally controlled in the seas next to Greenland. For at least 15 years, NOAA has been saying that the Gulf Stream is "relaxing", or slowing down. It's not carrying water away from the US coast, so the Mid-Atlantic region is already seeing the highest sea level rise in the US. Places like Annapolis and DC are seeing more frequent floooding already.

In the 1950s the British novelist John Wyndham wrote The Kraken Wakes, where the polar ice caps melt. He has a chilling scene of the thames overtopping the new embankments and flooding London. Early on, a scientist is scolded by friends for saying on the news that sea level has risen by 2 inches in the last year -- they think he's overdramatizing a minor event. My point is that it's easy to dismiss early warnings.

And yes, a shameless plug for one of my favorite writers. He gave Jefferson Airplane permission to quote him in lyrics.

[GuppyGal]

4. I'm moving inland

[modrepub]

5. Scientists Estimated the Greenland Ice Sheet Would Destabilize

if CO2 levels went above 400 ppb. Looks like we crossed that level near the end of 2015. More bad news, ice sheets ablate (disappear) much faster than they build up. Our coastal communities are severely screwed going forward.

[NickB79]

12. When you take methane and nitrous oxide into account, we're at 500 ppm

Pliocene levels of greenhouse gases, when oceans were 50 FEET higher, and alligators lived in Minnesota.

[roamer65]

14. Yup, CO2e.

There are other gases in the atmosphere like methane, CFCs, HFCs, nitrous oxides that are equivalent to about 80 ppm CO2.

[hunter]

8. We need to find ways to relocate entire communities in an organized way.

Otherwise there will be chaos.

Yes, it will cost money, but the alternatives will cost us more, especially if our civilization collapses.

Still, no one wants to talk about it.

Maybe we shouldn't rebuild some places that have been wiped out by climate change related disasters. One fire or flood in the past century may be a fluke of nature, two fire or floods in a century likely indicates a trend and that it's time to move.

One form of climate change denial is to simply reject that fossil fuels cause global warming. Another is to reject nuclear power. Nuclear power is the only energy resource capable of replacing fossil fuels entirely.

We've worked ourselves into a corner. Renewable energy alone simply cannot support a world population of 8 billion or more. Existing renewable energy schemes will only prolong our dependence on fossil fuels, especially natural gas, and do nothing to reduce the total amount of greenhouse gasses that are eventually dumped into the atmosphere, up until the point civilization collapses and we humans suffer and die by the billions.

We have the tools we need to build a sustainable civilization. But first we have to recognize there are problems with the civilization we've got.

[Kaleva]

10. Humanity also has to figure out how to remove the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.

Some of which can linger in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. We are getting closer and closer to where the feedback loop is self sustaining so that even a drop to zero emissions caused by human activity won't save us.

[hunter]

11. If abundant zero-carbon energy sources are available...

... all sorts of structural materials can be made from carbon dioxide extracted from the air or ocean.

These include plastic, steel, cement, etc..

Ultimately we may have to make artificial coal from carbon dioxide and bury it in the ground, which will require more energy than we got from burning natural coal in the first place.

If plastic was made from atmospheric carbon dioxide using carbon-free energy maybe we wouldn't have to feel bad about burying it in landfills.

Maybe George Carlin was right, nature wants us to make plastic, but not with oil.

[WarGamer]

13. Don't sweat it... turn your thermostat to 81 and air up your tires.

All will be fine, right?