Cook Report: GOP control of the House no longer "foregone conclusion"

[brooklynite]

Axios

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter says a Republican takeover of the House is "no longer a foregone conclusion," as concern over protecting abortion rights fuels Democratic voter engagement and lower gas prices ease the party's deficit with independent voters.

Driving the news: The publication’s House editor Dave Wasserman on Thursday moved the ratings of five more House seats in Democrats’ direction.

The rating changes include the Alaska House seat that Democrat Mary Peltola won in a special election over Trump-backed Republican Sarah Palin. Wasserman rates the Alaska seat a "toss-up" for November.

Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, representing a bellwether suburban district that backed President Biden by 6 points, is now rated as the favorite to win re-election against Republican Yesli Vega. "Vega's Todd Akin-like 'hot mic' comments about the likelihood of pregnancy following rape are a godsend to Spanberger," Wasserman writes.

Wasserman also points out that "Republican primaries pulling candidates to the right" have been a factor in the improved forecast for Democrats.

[Wounded Bear]

1. I never thought it was a forgone conclusion...

[brooklynite]

2. Until recently, hard data analysis said that it was.

[Claustrum]

4. And even with current polling, it's still an uphill battle in the house.

According to 538, we went from 10% chance to win to about 20-30%. What happens is that the current climate made a lot more races a toss-up or lean D, we still have to win a majority of them to retain the house.

[Walleye]

3. This is great because the Republicans will just double down on their hate campaign. They never learn

[Dorian Gray]

5. Excellent.....