My friend and I were discussing an analogy between Sandy's forecast track and the polling
aggregates that Nate Silver (at 538) and Sam Wang (at Princeton) carry out....
Anyone imaging the track of Sandy without having all of the various models, which managed to converge on that unlikeliest (and cruelest of course) of left hand turns. It allowed for at least some preparation - even a few decades ago the turn left would likely have been a very unpleasant surprise and led to an even worse disaster.
Perhaps what we are seeing in what Nate and Sam are predicting is the same sort of thing - the older, archaic methods that the MSM rely on to push their horse race are going extinct in front of our eyes...
So Tuesday could well be historic in terms of how we will be able to have confidence further out in elections and be able to avoid the histrionics and blather of the MSM....
Just something to ponder!
