General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: Dems extend generic ballot lead to 2 pts
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/Also considering most polls are putting women at 49-52% and substantially have shifted towards Democrats, it isn't crazy to think Dems are currently holding a far more substantial lead.
50 Shades Of Blue
(10,031 posts)Sky Jewels
(7,130 posts)If so, that's bizarre. Even in more "regular" elections women vote at a higher rate than men. And this year ... holy crap ... we are enraged. All bets are off.
Like this one: https://www.scribd.com/document/595960281/Texas-Benchmark-Final-Poll-Results-092122
Texas had 55% turnout of women in 2020 and this Siena poll thinks it'll drop 6% in a year that abortion rights was overturned.
Sky Jewels
(7,130 posts)ColinC
(8,316 posts)Maybe because they don't want to overstate the chances they think Dems have in a midterm where they are the president's party.
Polybius
(15,465 posts)We need to be 5 points ahead to break even.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)Polls have been gratuitously underrepresening women this cycle.
ITAL
(645 posts)There have been multiple articles the six months or so that said the GOP didn't get nearly as big of an advantage with gerrymandering as everyone thought they would.
Polybius
(15,465 posts)But you always over-ask, and take what was decided in courts. And what was decided was a far bigger gerrymander than they had previously had, and they already had an advantage. Without gerrymandering, they would be down by 40 seats after the 2020 election. Instead they are down by like 5 seats.
ITAL
(645 posts)They basically said 2020 to now is a wash.
Polybius
(15,465 posts)So they are now less then 2020's gerrymander, or about the same? 2022 is going to be fascinating.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)Fivetheityeight moved a lot of current Dem seats from tossup to solid based on gerrymandering. But beyond those, it didn't really change the math much.
Polybius
(15,465 posts)I really appreciate it, and will try and make sure that my posts are more factual. I may even subscribe to The Cook Report.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)Cook is a wonderful source -although I think their attempts to hedge on the side of caution may sometimes lead them to make bad calls. But Dave Wasserman, overall, is excellent.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)Dems had a 3% lead in the results in 2020 and only lost 13 seats. A 2% lead would hold the house or probably even gain a seat or two.
Sky Jewels
(7,130 posts)Rs did it in 2020; Ds did not (due to the pandemic). It makes a difference.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)Like 538 did this piece in 2008 about how important voter contact is: https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/contact-gap-proof-of-importance-of/amp/
Yet ever since, there hasn't seemed to be a huge acknowledgement of that reality to include the results of 2020 and how this effects 2022.
Silent3
(15,254 posts)...just to break even in House seats. There was a lot of Republican advantage already baked in.
Johnny2X2X
(19,095 posts)According to the models, a Dem +5 vote virtually guarantees Dem control of the House. But +4 is a 75% chance Dems keep the House and +3 is about a 60% chance Dems keep the House. +2 gives Dems a little better than 50-50. +1 is basically a tossup. Even is a GOP slight lead.
Even though the NY redistricting case went against us, redistricting was a wash, it did not get worse.
Polybius
(15,465 posts)We proposed a big gerrymander of our own, and the court decided against us 4-3, based on a law passed in 2015.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)Polybius
(15,465 posts)I hate the way the courts drew up this new map.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/21/nyregion/redistrict-map-nadler-maloney.html
ColinC
(8,316 posts)2naSalit
(86,743 posts)Not only take polls with a giant chunk of salt these days, I view them as some distant background noise.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)Like their gauging of the shift of women towards Dems is likely accurate. They're estimation of the amount of women that are likely to turnout, however, are from a different universe entirely.
jcgoldie
(11,636 posts)In 538 projection. Thats been rising slowly and up 8 or 10 points over a couple weeks ago.
71% to win the senate.
ColinC
(8,316 posts)For the Senate.
I follow Predictit too, which are pretty good at getting it right.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/search?query=Midterms2022