Question re: sequestration

[reflection]

If Obama wins and we gain seats in the House and Senate, how much leverage does that realistically give us? I think it would be seen as a proper repudiation of the Republicans in the House, which I believe have the lowest approval rating on record of any of the involved parties.

I personally would like to see the military take a larger haircut than cut social programs, and I wonder if we would have a little more juice to make that happen in the event of a likely Obama win. They have to come to an agreement by 1/2/13, right?

Sorry for the simplistic nature of the question, I am not as well-versed on this issue as I should be, but I know a lot of you are.

[Mz Pip]

1. The GOP will dig its heels in

They will not compromise and we will continue to have gridlock. But IMHO even that is better than a congress willing to compromise on the Romney / Ryan agenda.

[reflection]

2. Then it will kick in

and the pain will be felt places that it shouldn't. It's a shame. There are so many obvious places to cut spending and raise revenue and the GOP just won't put country ahead of party. What I hear you saying is that we will gain no additional leverage, and I probably agree. I believe the House Republicans have an 11% approval rating, and if that doesn't move them off center, I'm not sure what will.

[Johnyawl]

3. Not gonna happen, regardless of what happens on election day

Even if the Dems have control of the House, Senate and Presidency, they are not going to make "the military take a larger haircut than cut social programs". They don't have the desire (they're as committed to the MIC as the republicans), nor the spine (the dems piss their pants at the thought of the republicans calling them soft on defense).

The best deal we're gonna get is sequestration, where military spending has to account for half of all cuts. I'll be really surprised if the dems don't cave on that.

[reflection]

4. I feared as much.

Guess we'll have to see. Thanks for the response.

[pinto]

5. On sequestration, my take: A short term budget deal will be made before the deadline. Similar to

the Budget Control Act of 2011. Sequestration (automatic cuts) were included as "incentive" to get to a comprehensive budget deal.

A committee was formed (6 Dems / 6 Repubs) to make a budget recommendation for an up or down vote of both houses. No super majority, filibuster maneuvering, etc. It failed to come to agreement and was disbanded.

More on sequestration here:

The sequester, explained Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/14/the-sequester-explained/

On House and Senate make up, my take: We may pick up a few seats in the House, but no majority. And the buzz is the Repub make up will be even more extremist than it is now. We will maintain our Senate majority, which is our firewall (along with a Presidential veto if needed) to Repub extremism.

[reflection]

6. Thanks a million!

Off to read your link. What little I've read/heard from Ezra Klein I have thoroughly enjoyed. He seems like a super-sharp guy.