Hurricane Ian's forecast calls for rapid intensification. What does that mean?

[William769]

They are two of the most feared words associated with hurricane forecasting: rapid intensification. And that's what we're dealing with in Hurricane Ian.

n fact, Ian was forecast to hit Cuba as a major hurricane and then become an even stronger Category 4 with top winds of 140 mph over warm Gulf of Mexico waters before striking Florida along a stretch of coast including the Tampa Bay area by midweek.


They are two of the most feared words associated with hurricane forecasting: rapid intensification. And that's what we're dealing with in Hurricane Ian.

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Shelves emptied as Florida prepares for potentially 'catastrophic' Hurricane Ian
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Forecasters warned that the newly formed hurricane was expected to intensify rapidly to Category 3, a major hurricane, as soon as late Monday.

In fact, Ian was forecast to hit Cuba as a major hurricane and then become an even stronger Category 4 with top winds of 140 mph over warm Gulf of Mexico waters before striking Florida along a stretch of coast including the Tampa Bay area by midweek.

This NOAA satellite image shows tropical storm Ian over the Central Caribbean, on September 26, 2022. Tropical Storm Ian has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it nears western Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said on September 26, 2022.
This NOAA satellite image shows tropical storm Ian over the Central Caribbean, on September 26, 2022. Tropical Storm Ian has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it nears western Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said on September 26, 2022.
© NOAA/RAMMB/AFP via Getty Images
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What is rapid intensification?
Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.

IAN APPROACHES: 'Floridians up and down Gulf Coast' warned as Hurricane Ian strengthens, could reach Category 4

Ian is predicted to fit this definition: Ian had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph on Monday. But the storm's winds were forecast to approach 140 mph by late Tuesday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-ian-s-forecast-calls-for-rapid-intensification-what-does-that-mean/ar-AA12gO3l?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e89ab528f6e44f8e82757a7458231827

[Lovie777]

1. Stay safe! .......

[William769]

4. Thank you.

We expect to lose power & water & have local flooding. And this is not with a direct hit (Fort Myers). Per my brother, all store shelves are empty and him and his fiancée are headed to their other property in Tennessee this afternoon.

[blm]

5. Wishing you the best. 🤞🏽

We’re in WNC mountains if you have to evacuate.

[William769]

10. Thank you blm

I love the area you live in unfortunately I am in a rehab center from a nasty accident I had and cannot travel.

I really appreciate your offer. It's people like you that make DU and America great!

[blm]

16. Yikes!

((William))

[durablend]

2. Maybe Joe needs to Fedex a case of paper towels to Mar-A-Lago

[Biophilic]

3. I keep reading that the shelves are empty. We are just down from Tampa, below Sarasota.

A friend went to the local Publix this morning and found the store stocked to the gills. She said she'd never seen it so well stocked. Every shelf was packed and there was plenty of bottled water available in lots of different forms. So I'm wondering if the so called "empty shelves" is a bit of hype by the media. Yeah, this is a big storm and could be a really big deal, but people around me are slowly, methodically getting prepared i.e. boarding up windows, putting yard stuff away in safe places. It's a lovely little community right on the Gulf. And most importantly, lots of offers to help or for a place to stay if others live alone and don't want to be during the storm. Maybe the hype is necessary for someone someplace, but I don't think it is for Floridians. May we all be safe and sane.

[blm]

6. Probably freshly stocked expecting crowds.

[Biophilic]

8. I was just in there 2 days ago and it was busier than normal, but not outrageous.

And no empty shelves. Actually, my friend suggested that it might be to get ahead of supply problems if highways get blocked or other problems farther north following the storm. That seems like good business to me. Looking ahead as well as having a supply of what is needed now.

[William769]

7. My brother is not media.

I am stuck in a rehab center so I cannot verify myself. We are talking Fort Myers, Bonita Springs area.

[Biophilic]

9. Fort Myers is south of me. Hopefully we will all get through this well. Certainly it will be wet.

[William769]

12. Wet is a understatement.

[Biophilic]

13. I fear you are probably right.

with ya.

[jimfields33]

23. I literally just came from Winn-Dixie and water is gone. Not a bottle to be had.

I asked where the closest cases were a water and I said the villages. I figure I have one case at home so I’m not gonna bother. It should be enough. Who knows with the storms going to end up being anyway. Irma practically gave me a heart attack.

[malaise]

14. Batten down

This is serious.
Stay safe!

[William769]

15. Thank you malaise

I was happy to hear you survived your part of the storm.

[malaise]

17. We were lucky but it's still raining here from those rain bands

[William769]

18. Probably will for the next day or so.

[malaise]

19. Take care and get well soon

[William769]

20. Thank you kind sir.

[malaise]

22. Mam😀😀

[William769]

26. Oops!

[mcar]

21. Getting fed with lots of warm Carribean water

We're in NW Central Florida, about 70 miles north of Tampa, inland about 20 miles. I haven't been this worried since Irma.

[malaise]

24. Don't worry - prepare

Lots of rain with the wind.

[mcar]

27. Yep

Got the car gassed up, plenty of food, flashlights, lanterns, batteries. Will start filling pots, pans and bins with water tomorrow.

[malaise]

30. I always tell folks

We survived Gilbert - weeks without power and water. Of course I had a one week break in the USA but I discovered that we adapt better than we think possible.

[William769]

25. Irma caught me off guard.

I refused to listen to the hype. Lived in Bonita Springs at the time. Boy was I wrong!

[mcar]

28. It was a hard one to determine

I didn't leave until the Saturday before - it hit on Monday, IIRC. Most of the evacuees had already gone but it was still a tough trip. Hubby and son stayed behind and were without power for a week but no property damage.

[William769]

31. We had no power and 1st floor flooded.

[scarletlib]

29. Bigger, meaner and more destructive. Higher, faster winds and bigger storm surge.

[William769]

33. Compared to?

[scarletlib]

34. Only in comparison to past hurricanes.

Plenty of documentation of past hurricanes and levels of destruction. Of course this is nature at her most powerful. There are all types of factors to consider.

[William769]

35. Gotcha, Thanks.