It's Time to Take Democrats' Chances in the House Seriously

[brooklynite]

New York Times

There were more than a few Democrats who were a little miffed about my Friday newsletter on gerrymandering, which argued that Democrats aren’t at a terribly significant structural disadvantage in the race for the House.

I understand why Democrats don’t love reading that the obstacles they face — especially unjust ones — aren’t so bad. But underneath what some might read as a dismissal of the seriousness of gerrymandering is a kernel of good news for Democratic readers: Republican control of the House is not a foregone conclusion.

No, I’m not saying Democrats are favored. The likeliest scenario is still that Republicans will find the five seats they need to take control. And no one should be surprised if Republicans flip a lot more than that — especially with early signs that the political winds may be starting to shift in ways that might yield some Republican gains in key races (more on this tomorrow).

But the idea that Democrats can hold the House is not as ridiculous, implausible or far-fetched as it seemed before the Dobbs ruling overturned Roe v. Wade. It is a real possibility — not some abstraction in the sense that anything can happen.

I just put $5,000 into DCCC.

[JustAnotherGen]

1. My husband - now that he is a citizen

Has thrown some big money into key races directly. We've maxed out Congressman Malinowski - so now we can focus on other races.

[kelly1mm]

2. I like to look at the betting markets as there people are risking real money on their predictions.

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/house-of-representatives-odds


SNIP

If you’re a glass-half-full backer of a Democratic bet slip, we do have some good news for you. Their odds have improved considerably since late June, thanks in part to Biden’s improved polling, signed spending bill and moderate voter consternation regarding the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade.

Odds that the Democrats maintain a House majority were +500, which carried an implied probability of winning of less than 17 percent, but they have since improved to +275 as of late September for a 26.7 percent implied probability.

On the other side of the aisle, the Republicans’ odds of taking back the majority sank from -900 to -400 at online sportsbook Bovada. Their implied probability dipped from a 90 percent lock to 80 percent in less than three months. To be fair, those odds are still quite strong and the right side of the aisle maintains a vice-tight grip on winning this November, but it’s not as ironclad as they’d probably hope.

SNIP

Democrats are in much better shape than pre Dobbs but still a significant underdog.

[Polybius]

3. According to PredictIt, our odds are worsening

https://www.predictit.org/markets/search?query=Midterms2022

[kelly1mm]

4. D's down 5 cents to just 53 cents on the Senate is worrying .... nt

[Polybius]

5. Probably because of two races

The first is NV, which we are now behind in. The second is PA. While we're still ahead, it's no longer by 10 points. Some polls say 2.

[kelly1mm]

7. and WI seeming to slip away ........

[Polybius]

8. Ron Johnson's attack ad was brutal

Link to tweet

[vercetti2021]

9. So in simple terms

We are screwed. I guess abortion and other rights are out of the minds. I guess we deserve what we get if people vote these fascists in

[SouthernDem4ever]

6. If they vote control of the house to the repugs

that means they are really too stupid to know how truly sorry they'll be in the long run.