Weak rural turnout could hurt GOP in November

[JoeOtterbein]

Politico

A POLITICO analysis of turnout in this year’s special elections suggests that since Dobbs, rural voters are less motivated to cast ballots than others.

By HOLLY OTTERBEIN and JESSICA PIPER

10/03/2022 04:30 AM EDT

The Democratic Party’s newest star has an unlikely group to thank for his upset victory: rural voters.

Rep. Pat Ryan prevailed in a close race over his Republican opponent in an August special election in upstate New York in part because rural voters came out to the polls at lower rates than voters in more populated places in his bellwether congressional district.


The race in New York’s 19th District wasn’t unique. A POLITICO analysis of turnout data before and after Roe v. Wade was struck down in June shows that voters in rural counties were less motivated to cast ballots than those in more Democratic-leaning suburbs and cities after the Supreme Court decision. Though special elections are not a crystal ball, that could spell potential trouble for the GOP if the trend continues to the midterms in November, because rural voters, who overwhelmingly supported former President Donald Trump, are a key constituency for Republican candidates.

“Republicans are not as energized as they want or expected, and Democrats are very energized right now,” said Chris Walsh, Ryan’s campaign manager.

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more at link

[no_hypocrisy]

1. My theory

The rural Republicans aren’t going to vote unless “their guy” (TFG) is on the ballot. Even if he tells them to vote for whom— it won’t matter.

[Sky Jewels]

5. I think you're right.

In 2020 Dear Leader was counting on them -- and them personally, because he told them so in his emails, called them by their first names, and told them he needed their support! -- to do his bidding. Now, not so much.

[kentuck]

2. Every candidate will not be as appealing as Pat Ryan...

It wasn't just the abortion issue, in my opinion.

[JustAnotherGen]

3. Not falling for it

Every single Democratic Party voter and/or indies alarmed at the potential destruction of our Democracy and the American way of life needs to get out and cast a ballot.

These stories make liberals take their foot off the gas. If you listened to MSNBC this morning (I listen on Sirius XM) it's all doom and gloom for Democratic Candidates.

At risk of being called a 'liar' by a certain drinking ethnicity man at DU again -

Let's GOTV like we are 20 points behind in every race. In worked in NJ last year.

[Raftergirl]

4. I will believe it when I see it.

[TheRealNorth]

6. I prefer not to put the future of the Republic on the voting whims of rural Red Hats

[Midnight Writer]

7. A Trump hangover? I hope so, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

It's like Trump had a big party. Everyone got crazy and wore silly hats and told their neighbors to go fuck themselves.

Then they woke up the next morning, the party is over, and...

I could see that happening, but again, I wouldn't count on it.