Josh Marshall: There's your October surprise from Trump and MBS

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

[Irish_Dem]

1. Trump gives Saudis classified intel in exchange for influencing elections.

[multigraincracker]

2. Just made EVs more affordable.

Pushing oil into the dustpan of history sooner.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

6. If you can get one, sure, maybe ... depends on how much they cost though

Oil prices rise, EV's get more expensive due to demand, and cost of producing vehicles rising.

TPTB don't want bargains for shoppers, they need the cost of everything to rise steadily. And have various means of accomplishing that end.

[Scrivener7]

9. My used hybrid had 12000 miles, an insanely good repair rating, and my

mechanic told me, "If you don't buy this thing, I will."

It cost about a third less than a new Civic.

Prices have changed a lot in the three years since, but I think ratios are still similar.

The crazy gas prices this year ended up costing me about $25 more a month.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

11. That's great, you were fortunate!

However, I'm fairly confident that the underlying trend is that as gas prices rise, so do the costs of EV's and Hybrids, whether new or used.

It ends up balancing out, because car makers and retailers have no incentive to 'give consumers a deal'. They KNOW you'll pay more for a hybrid when gas gets expensive, and they adjust prices accordingly.

And they're esp. not giving any out right now, when inventories are quite low.

Out of curiousity, how much did gas cost per gallon 3 years ago when you bought your lucky Hybrid?

[Scrivener7]

13. No idea. It's always been so cheap for me that it hardly registers.

[underpants]

3. Yep.

Gas prices were always going to be a big factor in the midterms

[BlueIdaho]

4. The sooner we can cut all ties to middle eastern oil the better.

We have shed more blood and treasure over the almighty OPEC oil barrel than we have religion and that’s saying something.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

8. The US takes very little ME oil deliveries meant for domestic consumption

So thats not really the problem here.

The problem with is that the rest of the world would still be doing so even if we didn't buy any of the ME's oil. It's a global oil market. OPEC+ cuts production, global prices rise, and then US companies sell to the highest bidder on the world market, cause there's nothing in place legally to stop them from doing so. Capitalism over National Interests.

[House of Roberts]

5. Biden should announce a three step plan to combat this move by the Saudis.

Step one: Release an additional two million barrels a day from the strategic petroleum reserve to offset the cuts.

Step two: Announce plans to abolish exports of crude and refined fuel, if the voters keep the Dems in control of the House and Senate in the upcoming election.

Step three: After the export ban goes into effect, and the domestic price of oil drops, replenish the strategic petroleum reserve to pre pandemic levels gradually through the rest of his term.

[Botany]

7. +1

[Hugh_Lebowski]

10. If the domestic price of oil drops, US producers will produce less

Fracking (which provides most of our ability to ramp up production domestically) requires relatively high oil prices to be economically viable and attract investment.

Also the US can't outright ban export of refined fuels because for a lot of the refined fuels we export, we are basically middlemen for (mainly) Venezuela and Canada in this regard. We don't 'own' the feedstock or the product, we 'value-add' through our refineries and pass it along to mostly int'l consumers.

Also we had crude export ban for decades until Obama signed off on lifting it. During those decades we still had plenty of dramatic gas price rises when OPEC pulled shit like this. It did not 'insulate' us all that much.

And the fact that Obama lifted it, this makes it politically difficult for Democrats to call for its return.

And the Exxon's of the world are going to very much want to take advantage of the higher global prices this OPEC reduction is going to bring about, and those outfits have a LOT of power.

The only 'good' that may come from the rising prices is that US fracking will ramp back up again in response to higher global prices. Yay! (not)

That, and less oil being burned globally since there's 2M less available per day (unless somewhere else makes up for it ... which is unlikely).

[House of Roberts]

12. Obama vowed to veto the lifting of the ban,

then allowed it in exchange for an extension of green energy subsidies in the 2016 spending bill. It was Republicans who always wanted it lifted, so there's no political downside to the Democrats.

If those fuels already are exported, they won't be missed domestically if they're not imported in the first place. We shouldn't have to endure the pollution of refining anything we don't get to keep here, so there's no reason to export any crude or refined product.

'During those decades', when OPEC played with global output, we were more dependent on imports than we are now.

The purpose of my three steps is to get us leverage in the election, then long-term, reduce oil consumption domestically overall.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

15. Okay, as pitch for votes/leverage, I like it pretty well

But there are so many competing interests here that, as an overall plan, there are so many points of failure that I don't think it's practically likely it can actually be made to 'go down the way you laid it out'. Fair enough?

Step 1 is definitely a good idea. Biden would take some heat from the right (but what's new about that?), and the oil companies, but bottom-line the most important thing is the price at the pump. Americans are simpletons, they just want cheap gas. They don't care about grand plans. They SHOULD, but they don't.

And not to belabor this point, but higher global crude prices and the lack of an export ban are basically WHY the US has increased domestic production over the past 10 years (to your point of us being less dependent now vs the period of the ban). Take away either, and the frackers that can provide any sort of surplus start shutting down because they can't make money on $45/bbl crude, esp. if they can't export. Bit of a Catch-22 situation.

[Vinca]

14. That's exactly what it is, too.