Timothy Snyder: How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

At first, no one could imagine that the Russo-Ukrainian war could begin. And yet it began. And now, no one can imagine how it will end. And yet end it will.

War is ultimately about politics. That Ukraine is winning on the battlefield matters because Ukraine is exerting pressure on Russian politics. Tyrants such as Putin exert a certain fascination, because they give the impression that they can do what they like. This is not true, of course; and their regimes are deceptively brittle. The war ends when Ukrainian military victories alter Russian political realities, a process which I believe has begun.

The Ukrainians, let's face it, have turned out to be stunningly good warriors. They have carried out a series of defensive and now offensive operations that one would like to call "textbook," but the truth is that those textbooks have not yet been written; and when they are written, the Ukrainian campaign will provide the examples. The have done so with admirable calm and sang-froid, even as their enemy perpetrates horrible crimes and openly campaigns for their destruction as a nation.

Right now, though, we have a certain difficulty seeing how Ukraine gets to victory, even as the Ukrainians advance. This is because many of our imaginations are trapped by a single and rather unlikely variant of how the war ends: with a nuclear detonation. I think we are drawn to this scenario, in part, because we seem to lack other variants, and it feels like an ending.

Using the mushroom cloud for narrative closure, though, generates anxiety and hinders clear thinking. Focusing on that scenario rather than on the more probable ones prevents us from seeing what is actually happening, and from preparing for the more likely possible futures. Indeed, we should never lose sight of how much a Ukrainian victory will improve the world we live in.

*snip*

[RKP5637]

1. Putin will be removed from power by the oligarchs and the people. He is

costing Russia far too much in so many ways with his insane ego and stupidity.

[PortTack]

3. Hope so!

[Mariana]

6. People have been saying that since the invasion - some even before that.

Somehow, it keeps not happening.

[Elessar Zappa]

7. Dictatorships are usually fragile.

Only one domino needs to fall for them all to come crashing down. He may not be removed from power but I wouldn’t bet on it.

[mitch96]

8. "Somehow, it keeps not happening." Until it does..nt

[maxsolomon]

11. Saddam Hussein lost Gulf War 1, badly.

He stayed in power until Bush the Lesser came blundering in to Iraq. If the US hadn't made that historic error, he'd have passed his regime off to Uday and Qusay.

No reason to think Putin can't do the same. Oil buys an effective police state.

[RKP5637]

12. Yep, no doubt, "Oil buys an effective police state." n/t

[Lovie777]

2. I know one thing......

Putin is a liar. Just recent Putin claimed that he has much respect for Ukraine, her people and her culture at the same time bombing the shit out of UA and signing papers annexing four regions and sign a document making the nuclear facility Russian property.

The trust factor is -0-.

[RKP5637]

4. The guy is total bullshit!!! n/t

[Chainfire]

5. When the pain becomes too much to bear, Putin's health will fail suddenly and he will be replaced.

After his "retirement" he will die a sudden death. His successor will declare that the special action has reached all of its goals, the Nazis have been removed and that Russian Troops can return to their families and those pesky sanctions can be scaled back.

"After all, all we ever wanted was to get rid of the Nazis."

[lindysalsagal]

9. I think we're seeing it end right now: Just military failure. Let's hope the russians finish the job

and remove the cause of it all so our diplomats can restore some sanity. Just like Iran, most modern countries have more in common now than they have differences. I feel like we can mend the world if a few haters can lose power.

[mitch96]

10. "War is ultimately about politics" or as the 19 th century Prussian military officer said.

Von Clausewitz was one of the first writers to condemn the militarism of the Prussian general staff and its war-proneness, based on Clausewitz's argument that
"war is a continuation of policy by other means."
Quoted by many and his tactics are still studied.
m
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_von_Clausewitz