Someone needs to explain to me...

[PCIntern]

On Morning Joke this A.M., The following news report was made: President Biden‘s approval rate inched up which is good news for the Democrats, the bad news for the Democrats is that 7 in 10 think the country is going in the wrong direction.

Now I am one of those people who thinks that the country‘s going in the wrong direction, but I am certainly not going to vote for the Republican fascist party because I think that is the case. The fact is, I think so right now, only because of the Republicans and their Naziesque machinations . The implication is that seven and 10 people are leaning Republican because there happens to be a Democratic president. In addition, OPEC has raised the price of gasoline and other products by diminishing their production, so this is somehow the fault of the President of the United States directly, Just like he was responsible for the bacterial contamination of baby formula plants. I might add that is cause and effect is only reported as such widely when there is a Democrat in the White House.

So my (possibly rhetorical) question to the DU body politic is where are the interviewees who know a little bit about math who can refute some of the implications of statistics, even assuming that they are true and accurate which in my opinion is a poor assumption at this time?

(As an aside some of you may or may not know the following: did you ever take a look at the studies which follows to say 250 people over 20 years to see how they react to things? Now the implication is that in the study, all 250 of the people are interviewed 20 times equaling 5000 interviews. This is absolutely not the case: what the researchers do is apply statistical formulas to calculate what someone would probably say if they had managed to contact them. I’m not kidding, I have a family member who applies these formulas routinely in research studies. When I first heard this, I literally burst out laughing. Apparently, scientifically, the tests are statistically significant and are accepted within the scientific community. Of course, so was the steady state theory of the creation of the universe accepted within the scientific community until evidence proved otherwise, but I digress.)

[marble falls]

1. Polls should be not be considered news. They're more between weather forcasts and horoscopes.

[gab13by13]

4. I could not agree more

Polls are used for propaganda.

[HAB911]

2. What exactly was the question

If it was simply "do you think the country is going in the wrong direction?" I would answer "Yes", since 30% of the country is beating the civil war drum, laughably.

So my yes would have nothing to do with the Democrats. I'm sure the question, as asked, has no finesse, no nuance

[betsuni]

3. Like the 2004 election, voters said morals were a big thing they voted on, but totally

different between Republicans and Democrats. One side voted on the usual delusion that Republicans were the moral party and the other voted for Democrats because they were against an immoral war and administration.

[Hugin]

5. Yes indeed authentic longitudinal demographic studies are rare...

I’d always assumed it was due to funding anything scientific for more than 20 minutes in the US is a problem.

It turns out there’s also a variability problem with the subject matter.

I have only seen one ambitious attempt at a cradle to grave study covered in a documentary years ago in the UK.

If I recall the details around a hundred middle class youngsters (all in the 5 or 6 years) were chosen to follow. Half of each gender.
In the very early 1950s.

Of course as they followed them it diverged from the American experience very quickly due to the differences and nuance in the British educational system.

They abandoned the study in the early 1970s when only five of the subjects could be found. So they had gathered the metrics annually for around 20 years.

The most striking individual I remember is one male subject who was a leader of his class at the beginning. He eventually became a constable. In his late 20s he was diagnosed as schizophrenic and was institutionalized for awhile. The last contact they had with him he was living in a small caravan as a vagrant.

[Phoenix61]

6. Seems the little fascists are having a sad.

28% of Americans think the nation is moving in the right direction while 69% say it is moving in the wrong one. While a majority of Democrats (52%) perceive the nation to be moving in the right direction, 91% of Republicans and 71% of independents say the country is off track.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/bidens-job-approval-rating-the-midterm-elections/

[Sympthsical]

7. Because the non-political vote on these things

The people who aren't particularly partisan and don't care much about day to day politics will vote based on where they think their self-interests lay. And where their self-interests lay are generally in their day-to-day wallets. The economy and inflation are hitting those hard.

I think, if this were a normal year, we'd be demolished. However, with Dobbs, I don't think this is a normal year. Given the results in Kansas and other places as a result of it, I think this election is unusually unpredictable. The models that will give a general sense of how things will go are upended no minor degree.

I don't think we're going to have a blow out. There are a lot of reasons for why not (inflation, gerrymandering not reflected in general polling, etc.). But I think we do pointedly better than experts relying on previous elections think. I don't think their models are taking Dobbs into account as much as they should.

[Samrob]

8. Dems need to get the "spin" right. I feel the nation is going in the wrong direction BECAUSE

the GOP has too much power, their tax breaks for the uber wealthy are hurting us, the greed of corporate contributors to the GOP is fueling our inflation, and Trump's anti-American buddies are working hard to get him back into power so that they can have their way with US power and influence. Yes, the country is going in the wrong direction and as soon as we can get the Republicans out of office the faster we can make a turnaround.