Democrats Need More Than Beto O'Rourke If They Want To Flip Texas

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Once again, everyone can’t stop talking about Beto O’Rourke.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling average1 shows a single-digit contest in the Texas gubernatorial race between O’Rourke and the Republican incumbent, Greg Abbott. Earlier this year, O’Rourke made headlines for his record-breaking fundraising, and the fallout from a succession of high-profile events in the state — the triggering of a preexisting state law banning abortions, continued strains on the power grid and a mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, one of the deadliest school shootings in U.S. history — are giving him unexpected leverage against Abbott. As a result, this gubernatorial election could be one of Texas’s most competitive since Democrats last held the office in the 1990s.

Let’s be real about one thing, though: The overall electoral environment might be improving for Democrats, but O’Rourke is still a serious long shot. FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm-election forecast2 gives Abbott a 95-in-100 chance of besting his ubiquitous Democratic challenger. But is it possible that after his closer-than-expected Senate race against Ted Cruz in 2018 and rise to national prominence after a nearly eight-month campaign in the 2020 presidential election, a narrow loss against Abbott in November could be a victory for Texas Democrats in the long run?

The idea that O’Rourke could be laying the groundwork for future Democratic victories in Texas isn’t a crazy one. After all, other Southern states like Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina have become somewhat more competitive over the past several election cycles. But another close statewide race for O’Rourke this year doesn’t necessarily mean Texas is on the verge of turning blue — or even purple. That’s because O’Rourke is, well, O’Rourke, and without a stronger campaign infrastructure throughout the state, it will be hard for most Texas Democrats running in statewide elections to replicate his level of fundraising and fanfare. And, fundamentally, Texas is still a red-leaning state.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-need-more-than-beto-orourke-if-they-want-to-flip-texas/

[MagickMuffin]

1. Beto needs to remind voters to vote Democratic down ticket

Cause if he doesn’t have a democratic congress nothing will get done.

[UTUSN]

2. K&R

[dsp3000]

3. He had his chance, but "hell yeah we're taking your guns" doesn't fly in Texas...

Maybe he can inspire more ground game the way stacey abrams is doing in georgia and work behind the scenes and help get other local officials elected, as someone else has already said in here.

[onecaliberal]

4. Women are coming to the poll. Ask Kansas about all their polls.