Possible Outline for a Potential Future Peace Deal

[Tom Rinaldo]

Lots of speculation rampant on what at some point could constitute a Ukraine "exit ramp" for Putin. Leaving aside the obvious possibility of Putin himself being exited from power in Moscow, one way or another, what deal could still end the war short of a catastrophic total Russian defeat? Clearly lots of high level talent in capitals around the world are wrestling with that question, but here we all are on a political discussion board, might as well be in the mix...

Any agreement to end this war other than on the battle field will almost certainly have to contain at least a fig leaf or two for Putin. But just as obviously, to me at least, objectively it also would have to leave Ukraine in a stronger position vis a vis Russia than it was the day before Russia launched its invasion. My thoughts on this are:

A cease fire followed by mutually agreed upon international peacekeeping forces entering into and providing intermediate security within all of the regions of Ukraine, the Crimea included, that Russia has claimed to annex. The organizing of a formal referendum process run by the U.N. or other such mutually agreeable international authority to take place within those areas under a negotiated upon timeline and conditions. Those negotiations most like would need to be completed prior to a formal cease fire taking hold and the insertion of international peace keeping forces. Who would have standing to vote in those referendums would be subject to those negotiations.

A declaration by both Ukraine and Russia, along with other relevant entities such as N.A.T.O., that the national borders of both Russia and Ukraine relative to each other would be fixed by the results of those referendums and internationally acknowledged. Such an acknowledgement would formally include an overt recognition that sovereignty includes the right of any nation, Ukraine clearly included, to determine for itself what if any international security alliances and or pan-national entities (such as N.A.T.O and the EU) it chooses to be a part of. That clearly is intended to unlock the door for Ukraine to receive formal security assurances, up to and including full N.A.T.O. membership, from the West.

As an element of those referendums, Ukraine would submit such binding guarantees as it is willing to make to Russian speaking citizens, within those areas of Ukraine that Russia has claimed to annex, to safeguard both their rights and their culture should they vote to remain part of Ukraine.

Upon the successful completion of those referendums, certified by the relevant international entities, and the acknowledgement and acceptance of their results by both Russia and Ukraine, certain international sanctions would be removed against the State of Russia that would relieve economic hardship on its citizens. These would be determined in advance through negotiations but would NOT have to include sanctions specifically designed to put a check on Russia's military capacity to wage aggression. Those could be revisited later based on longer term compliance with the Peace accords. Probably N.A.T.O. could also come up with some language that would "address some of Russia's legitimate security concerns" such as the sort of things that were being discussed in the run up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

At this point, given all that has gone down, I believe Russia would lose legitimate referendums in all parts of Ukraine that it has illegally claimed to annex, with the possible exception of Crimea., where there had been some degree of popular support for Russia among its residents prior to 2014. Russia occupied Crimea under relatively peaceful conditions for 7 years prior to its larger invasion of Ukraine last year. That provides residents of Crimea with a baseline to legitimately determine which nation state could best represent them moving forward, Russia or Ukraine.

The best case scenario for Putin would be if he were able to convince a majority of Crimea citizens to voluntarily side with Russian sovereignty. I don't know how likely that is, but probably it's not totally impossible. In either case he would be able to get the West to relieve Russia from some of the economic sanctions now crippling it through compliance with the peace accords. In addition he could attempt to take credit for whatever "protections" Russian speaking citizens in other parts of the Ukraine could "win" under terms of the final peace agreement, And if course, he could end conscription in Russia, which now threatens to destabilize his regime.

For Ukraine, it would have to accept allowing an internationally sanctioned process determine its ultimate sovereignty over certain parts of its nation. That is a huge concession, but the end of slaughter of tens of thousands of its citizens, the almost certain Russian retreat in the East and South of Ukraine, coupled with possible iron clad N.A.T.O. security guarantees moving forward, plus a robust international aid package to rebuild Ukraine from the devastation of war, could make it worth it.

[QED]

1. What about the Ukrainians "relocated" to parts of Russia?

[Tomconroy]

2. Yes. All the surrender monkeys never mention that.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. "Who would have standing to vote in those referendums would be subject to those negotiations."

Yep, that could be a major sticking point. Any proposal would be difficult to hammer out. Lots of potential sticking points There are refugees also who have fled to countries other than Russia. Wars are not easy to stop short of one side or the other wiping out its opponent, International negotiations are complex, but the bottom line is that there is no deal without both sides signing off on one.

My gut sense is that Russia has been so heavy handed in the territories it has occupied (with the possible exception of the Crimea) that it has alienated most of those who live there who might once have been inclined to support them there. I think it would take massive ethnic cleansing now for them to engineer an electorate for a vote inside those territories that would support them, and Ukraine would not agree to a plan that allowed Russia to get away with deporting hundreds of thousands of up until very recently Ukraine citizens to prevent them from having a vote (or providing for their return since so many have already been deported off their land.)

[dalton99a]

3. Russia should be forced to rebuild Ukraine, not US or EU taxpayers

Seize Russia's reserves

[SCantiGOP]

5. Not just Putin, the Russian people would not agree to this

And independent polls at the time of the annexation of Crimea showed large majorities of people in Crimea preferred to be a part of Russia, and I doubt Ukraine would accept that.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. I'm not even a clear advocate of this. I just challenged myself to imagine a non military resolution

A conflict not fought to the bloody end on the battlefield (or a few days shy of the bloody total end as with Japan's surrender post atom bomb but pre allied invasion) involves each side making difficult concessions begrudgingly taking into account painful realities.

I don't think the Russian people are ready for this now either, but it is a moving picture. Crimea as you note might choose to stay with Russia which would he difficult as hell for Ukraine to swallow, but for an end to the killing and suffering, with all other formerly Russian occupied territories likely being returned to Ukraine, and with formal N.A.T.O. security assurances one way or another as part of the deal, along with massive assistance rebuilding from the devastation of war, it is just possibly a deal they could accept.

If the above were to come to pass, from any pragmatic assessment, Ukraine would emerge from this war in stronger shape than they had been in the seven years that preceded the massive Russian invasion. With a much better path forward to full Western integration.

[Lovie777]

6. For one thing, Crimea before 2014 was Ukraine ....

Putin took it by force, killing Ukrainians while many Ukrainians fled. Russia brought in many of their citizens and now 8 years later of course there is a large community of Russians.

Ukraine has the right to take Crimea back.

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. Of course they have that right.

There was a large Russian identified population in Crimea before 2014 also, though Russia has moved to make it larger since then as you rightfully point out.

Ukraine is justified should they decide to fight to the end to retake Crimea. It is for them to decide whether any alternative course of action is overall more in their national interest to consider and/or pursue, and if so on what terms and for what in return.

[relayerbob]

9. Completely unacceptable. How are you going to hold a referendum ...

When over 50% of the population of those regions fled, tens of thousands killed and tortured, and hundreds of thousands forcibly removed to Russia, while Russia flooded the territory with their citizens? This is a complete non-starter suggestion.

Sovereignty was determined in the 1990s, and international borders were agreed to by all parties. No major country accepts Russian conquests of Ukrainian land.

What you have described is surrender, and the opening of Pandora’s box for any country that wants to invade a neighbor, execute genocide and claim that land as their own.

No.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

12. This ☝️

[Irish_Dem]

17. 100% agree. Surrendering to Putin/caving to his demands is insanity.

Putin invades a country, murders, tortures, rapes civilians.

Then we give him what he wants?

This would give him the green light to keep going.

[Disaffected]

10. Thank you for a well thought out and articulate

Last edited Sat Oct 8, 2022, 09:22 PM - Edit history (1)

assessment of the situation. Such a process would no doubt be very contentious but we (meaning the west, Ukraine and Russia) are in a very difficult situation and a peaceful resolution is going to require a lot of compromise.

I would only add a bit to the last paragraph - the real threat of nuclear war would also be avoided which is perhaps the most pragmatic consideration of all.

[relayerbob]

21. This assumes Putin wants a peaceful resolution

Look at Georgia, Syria, Aremenia/Azerbaijan, then at Ukraine. This dictator is on a binge for conquest. Period. He's not going to compromise. He will stop fighting long enough to rebuild and attack again. He's shown this over and over and over. And the nuclear threat and blackmail will never end.

[Disaffected]

23. Sure but,

he may soon have no choice or at least any sane choice (which may though be problematical with a bastard like him).

[I_UndergroundPanther]

11. I wish that overwhelming defeat

Was an option.

I would love to see russia annexed into Ukraine. No more power for putin or his despots...and Ukraine becomes a nuclear power.

One can dream

[Bernardo de La Paz]

13. I wish people would stop pushing bogus referendums, especiall near wartime

Even a year or so after the war finishes would be too soon for a referendum with binding results for generations.
Even if one could be held fairly.

It's just too big of an upheaval to take an accurate assessment of people's long term views of a long-term issue.

Proposing referendums at this point is giving comfort to referendum corrupters like Putin and smart-but-unwise Elon Musk.

Proposing a peace that has Ukraine joining NATO as a presupposition will never be agreed to by Russia, even a humiliated Russia.

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. If I were a figure with any standing whatsover, even as flimsy a standing as being a billionaire

...like Musk, I would not propose a damn thing. However not one person in this universe, let alone Ukraine for example, will feel one iota of pressure at all to even acknowledge any thoughts I, and most likely you also, share here, let alone respond to them formally.

What prompted me to think about this in the first place to was news reports that our President is mulling over what if any "exit ramps" might remain out there for Putin. If it is acceptable for Biden to contemplate that then it should not be a problem for a discussion board like DU to entertain the question also.

Like I said above, I am not advocating a proposal, just brainstorming. It certainly is not my call to make and I 100% support Zelensky and his government deciding what they think is best for Ukraine. It is their nation that has been invaded.

Again, any idea that Ukraine decides is unworkable is unworkable by definition. You may well be right about referendums, but there are all kinds of precedents for arranging for refugees to vote on matters effecting their homelands. To be blunt, if a vote could be held under circumstances that the government of Ukraine could agree were even passably fair, I have no doubt that Russia could not win in the east and south after how they have acted, outside of possibly in Crimea. If a passably fair vote can not be assured I can not think of any reason why Ukraine would allow such a plan to go forward. Subject closed.

Biden often says "Don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative." There will inherently be huge problems with any process forward to end this war that doesn't involve continued combat until one side suffers total defeat. But there are also huge risks for everyone with indefinite duration intensive military conflict, along with the certainty of massive death, destruction, and suffering.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. Oh I agree with discussion & brainstorming, but referenda are non-starters for a few years at least.

Okay, might be me guilty of skimming OP, but brainstorming is great and I must have missed that.

Thing is, brainstorming is a technique to "get outside of the box", and the box reeks of referenda.

Who knows, thinking of unconventional methods or of unconventional applications of conventional methods might lead to the development of a viral world-sweeping combination of referenda, ice bucket challenges, and chia pet commercials that solves cross-border conflict.

I'm not poo-pooing brainstorming. It's a great technique that requires spontaneous and voluminous generation of ideas and concepts in a short period of time without any immediate filtering no matter how wacky. Only after they have all been properly tabulated is there any assessment.

---

Exit ramp: It's much easier for everyone including Putin to exit right now at the soonest opportunity. It's much easier than tragically at great human cost having to laboriously remove all the invaders from all the Ukrainian territory. It's much easier for Putin than to work like a dog trying to salvage something for months when the end result is obviously going to be worse for his already terrible legacy than exiting now to his billion buck retirement dacha.

Unworkable: Yes, Ukraine is in the best position morally and practically to decide what is workable and what isn't. After all they already face a mind-numbing aftermath to deal with.

Indefinite duration: Better that than certain dire consequences of appeasing Putin. Putin has been appeased enough by letting him get away with Crimea 2014, Syria, Grozny, and so much more.

No more appeasement. Putin has many times shown us who he is.

[Tom Rinaldo]

20. I appreciate the dialog and your views. Thanks n/t

[Hekate]

14. Did the Allies provide a "fig leaf" for Hitler or Mussolini? Did the Allies contemplate expanding...

….Germany’s borders & leaving them with Belgium or Austria as a consolation prize?

You are aware, I suppose, that Putin already held sham referenda in seized territories — complete with uniformed soldiers carrying big weapons in a threatening manner to make sure people voted the right way.

Putin has forcibly relocated Ukrainians to Russia. Putin has kidnapped Ukrainian children in the chaos and sent them to Russia. Putin’s army has committed widespread rape, torture, and murder of civilians from old age to children, as their dead bodies attest (see, if a skeleton has all its teeth knocked out, that’s testimony). Mass graves.

Appeasement does not work with tyrants. Crimea did not “belong” to Russia — yet the West looked the other way when he took it by force. The USSR no longer exists, and its former members are grateful. But Vlad Putin wants it back. Why would anyone acquiesce?

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. Yes that is an example of fighting to the end.

I am not a highly versed historian, but I am not aware of any preferable alternative diplomatic settlements to WWII that could have been pursued instead at any point once the war was fully underway. And that is after fully acknowledging the death destruction and suffering that ultimately occurred during WWII. But that latter point should not just be breezed past. Human suffering death and destruction from WW!! was immense and on a scale that it is difficult to even contemplate. And triggering off nuclear Armageddon was not yet in the realm of possibilities

Fighting to the end IS an option, and may well turn out to be the best of all possible options in this case as well. There will be more mass graves every month this war continues however. That may be the price of freedom, literally, and that may well be the price that must be paid. I am more than willing to let Ukraine make that call. as to whether any possible alternative to that is preferable, and at what if any cost.

But it is the nature of fig leafs that their purpose lies more in the mind of the wearer than in the beholder. Littered throughout the discussion on this thread are assertions made that no way would Putin agree to anything like this. Those assertions may well be true. Bullies have no problem accepting appeasement, but Putin would have major trouble accepting anything close to what I outlined. He would come out of this at best still in possession of Crimea, which he had held since 2014 and which no one realistically thought he would lose his grip on seven years after he annexed it, before the debacle of the 2022 invasion that is. On the other side of the ledger N.A.T.O. is now expanding on his borders, with Sweden and Finland joining, and Ukraine would receive formal security guarantees from the West while formally cementing itself into the European block.

Meanwhile only a total sham of a referendum like the ones Putin just held could result in Russian wins in the newly annexed regions of Ukraine after how the Russians treated even Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine during the occupation. Russian troops will be gone this time though and Ukraine would have to sign off on how new ones are run. There is a ton of evidence of a massive shift away from Russian loyalties in the East of Ukraine over the last seven years, and especially over the last seven months. So Russia would net lose control of significant parts of Ukraine it had controlled the year before. On top of that the Russian military has been exposed as corrupt, inept and second rate, and it has been reduced to a shambles. Hundreds of thousands of Russia's best and brightest have fled Russia's borders, a catastrophic brain drain. New sanctions on Russia's military industrial complex would not be lifted.

Russia would emerge weaker, not stronger, from this war. Ukraine would emerge stronger not weaker, from this war. That is not a prescription for appeasement that any future potential world aggressor would find appealing as a template.

[edhopper]

19. The answer

as Gandhi told the British, is that they will simply leave all Ukrainian territory. The result of not doing so is the ruination of their country.

[Happy Hoosier]

22. Under no condition can Russia annex anything.

To allow that would invite future aggression.