(AZ-SEN) Kelly, (AZ-GOV) Hobbs leading Arizona races: CNN poll

[In It to Win It]

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs (D-Ariz.) currently have the lead in their respective races ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to a new CNN poll.

The poll, published on Thursday, found that 51 percent of respondents said they’ll support Kelly in next month’s Senate election, while 45 percent of those surveyed offered their support for Trump-backed Blake Masters.

Forty-nine percent of registered respondents have a favorable opinion of Kelly, while 39 percent of respondents said they have an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent senator, according to the poll.

In the gubernatorial race, 49 percent of respondents said they’ll support Hobbs in next month’s election for state governor, while 46 percent of those surveyed in the poll offered their support for Kari Lake, who was endorsed by former President Trump.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3676925-kelly-hobbs-leading-arizona-races-cnn-poll/

[dsc]

1. They are both within the MOE

but Kelly is at the outer edge and over 50 which is very good. Hobbs is in the MOE firmly though and below 50. I am mystified that given these numbers she refused to debate. Kelly has lead in every poll in RCP (though they actually project him to lose due to adjusting polls) while Hobbs has been behind in more than those in which she is ahead. Again, her non debate strategy is strange.

[Stinky The Clown]

2. Lake is a skilled speaker/deflector/provocateur and I am betting really dangerous is a debate

[dsc]

3. I'm sure she is

but Hobbs is losing right now, not winning. If she were in Kelly's position in the polls her strategy would be wise for the reason you outline but she is losing now as is.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. I read your OP as Hobbs 49 / Lake 46

Not a strong lead, to be sure, but not losing either.

[dsc]

5. Not my OP

but this is one poll of many and she is behind in more polls than she is ahead. She is also behind the the average (down 1.1). One saving grace for her, is that the polls in 2018 overstated Ducey's support so under this adjustment stuff she would be ahead. But under RCP's adjustment (only for Trump numbers) she is further behind.

[Stinky The Clown]

6. Oooops! Sorry!

Not your OP.

CBS Sunday had Lake and Hobbs on for 5 minutes each. Hobbs answered the questions asked. Lake was pugnacious, indignant, demanding . . . . .

She was like Trump, controlling the conversation totally.

[grantcart]

7. Both Kelly/Sinema won by 3%

Under ideal conditions with a better candidate we can win with 3%.

When I worked on Sinema's campaign I got a senior campaign in a corner and asked what the final outcome is going to be a month before hand. He said we will swamp the airwaves and call every Democrat and every independent 5-7 times and we will win by 3%.

Both Kelly and Sinema won against a deeply despised McSally by the same 3% margin.

Both sides are baked in at a hard 47%. We gain 3% by having better candidates and another 3% is thrown away by right wing voters who don't like their candidate.

Hobbs decision not to"debate" was the right one. Lake is a charismatic long term TV anchor who shines in front of a camera and wouldn't debate but hijack the debate by going crazy on vax, election counts, etc. The whole debate would be spent on responding to her bomb throwing.

Hobbs isn't that good on TV or on her feet. We win by keeping the framing on Lake as a nut job. Lake hasn't always been like this,she was a strong Obama supporter.

Masters is the worst candidate I have ever seen and we are only up 5.

My prediction is that Kelly wins by 6 and he pulls Hobbs over by 2.5.

Early voting has already started.

[grantcart]

8. Moderate Republicans supporting Hobbs

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3680447-some-arizona-republicans-gather-with-hobbs-ahead-of-trump-rally-for-lake/


Even with all of this we will be lucky to win by 3%

We have two "drivers"

a) Over reaching on abortion
b) There was a general teachers strike 4 years ago and parents and teachers united in a "Red for ED" campaign against Republicans stiffling education in AZ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Arizona_teachers%27_strike

Also in Pima County a very strong group of women organized an independent PAC to fight for Obama care.

These three under currents help Dems get good turnout.