BTRTN Midterms Snapshot: Where Should Democratic Volunteers and Donors Focus Their Resources?
Born To The Numbers provides its up-to-the-minute snapshot of House, Senate, and Governors' races, and in this important post, provides advice to Democrats who want to know how to make the most impact with their volunteering efforts and donations in the final weeks before the midterms:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-where-should.html
Excerpts: "The electoral environment is largely unchanged, as President Biden’s approval rating remains in the low 40% range, slightly higher than in August, but not showing any continued momentum from that time, while the generic ballot has slipped back from D+1 to even. The Senate races overall have continued to tighten, enough to slightly reduce the odds of the Democrats maintaining control of that body, though those odds remain good. However, the two rating changes we have made are a split verdict: in Georgia, revelations about GOP candidate Herschel Walker appear to have damaged him materially, while in Pennsylvania, the race continues to tighten. In the House, the Democrats continue to be long shots to maintain control, and need to win virtually every toss-up and leaning race, including those leaning to GOP candidates right now...
"Here are the latest BTRTN’s odds of the Democrats maintaining each of the two chambers, the expected number of seats that will change parties, and key metrics, all compared to prior updates (see chart)..."
"Democratic volunteers and donors should focus their efforts on the highest leverage Senate races, which could come down to three pivotal races... But while it may be too early to throw in the towel on the House, volunteer efforts to bolster the House should be secondary to maintaining the Senate..."