Early reports: Ukraine has resumed the offensive in Kherson Province

[Tomconroy]

A number of sources are reporting this morning that the UAV has resumed a push in Kherson towards the dam bridge at Nova Kharkova. Forty five Kms to go. Early reports are promising. More info in the thread.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Thoughts and prayers.

[Beastly Boy]

1. If true, this could be bigger than the Lyman offensive.

If Ukraine comes within firing range of the Nova Kachovka bridge, they will control the last remaining route across the Dnipro river. Russian troops around Kherson will be trapped, with no supplies or reinforcements coming in.

At this point, yesterday's call from Russian officials to Kherson's residents to leave the city for Russia for "leisure and study" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63243313) sounds more like a cruel joke than a rational advice.

[Botany]

2. From reports I have read some of the conscripts* that Vlad has put into Ukraine have little to no..

... training, warm clothing, food, water, and ammunition and they have been killing Sr. officers
who try to stop them from surrendering to U.A. troops and I have read reports (which I don't know
how good they are) that both Belarusian and Chechen forces that their country's pro Putin leadership
have sent to Ukraine have switched sides and are now fighting the Russians.

It looks like Russia is all but done for on the ground in Ukraine and Crimea and the only thing they
can do now is launch air and missile attacks from Russia against Ukrainian civilians.

* I read one report where they call themselves "speed bumps."

[Irish_Dem]

3. No need to train or equip men who are just going to be speed bumps.

It is a waste of time and money.

[Botany]

4. FYI

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217251581

[Irish_Dem]

5. Yep that is the problem with speed bumps.

Putin thinks he is Stalin and can send millions of Russian men to the front line meat grinder.

When I read that the Russian men who were drafted were not equipped or trained it seemed obvious
what the plans were. And also there would be fragging of officers.

[Botany]

7. It is not just in the south but I have seen video (Ukraine Produced) of Russian living in muddy....

.... holes dug into hillsides with trash and human waste all around them in the Donbas.

The Ukrainian forces are cutting off the Russian troops from getting supplies and or any
escape routes. I feel bad for the conscripts but as the Russian troops that killed, raped,
and tortured all those men, women, children, senior citizens, and dogs i hope every last
one of them dies.

[Irish_Dem]

8. I know, those videos of the RU solider pigsties are something to behold.

Yes.

The RU soldiers are stealing food and clothing from the local civilians after they torture, rape and kill them.
The torture chambers are numerous and deliberate.

All of this hardens the Ukrainian resolve and motivation. It is said that all Ukrainians are fighting the enemy
in some way.

The Ukrainian military morale is very high, their heroism and commitment is incredible.

Yes I see no reason to show Russians any mercy, they certainly have shown none for
Ukrainian civilians, including women and children.

[Botany]

9. In OH I think JD Vance just cost himself the election ... lots of Ukrainians in OH

He said that Zelenskyy should cut a deal with Putin and give him some land. And something to the
effect Biden and Zelenskyy forced Russia to attack.

BTW the Russian air power is dropping all the time they can't get parts for their planes.

I hope we get Ukraine the attack jets they need and Ukraine starts to target missile bases in Russia
and the Black Sea Fleet too.

BTW https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/12/ukraine-chechen-fighters-russia/ Look @ that
Chechen fighter

[Irish_Dem]

10. Thanks for the article.

Yes I had read this as well, that some of the Chechens are fighting with Ukraine against Russia.

Yes JD Vance may have hurt his chances in Ohio with the anti-ukrainian stance.
I hope so.

The Russian Air Force, touted as one of the best in the world, has failed spectacularly in Ukraine.

The recent terror bombing of the Ukrainian civilian population is backfiring.

No real tactical advantage to the bombing, just designed to terrorize the population and
force them to surrender. Instead, it is furthering the military and civilization resolve against Russia.
And making it more likely that the west will accelerate arms deliveries.

Yes I would very much like to see Ukraine have air superiority. Zelensky wants advanced air power.
He would like F-15s/F-16s and I wish we would send them to him. Who knows maybe the US is doing
fighter jet training with Ukrainian pilots on the quiet.

I think some US members of congress have drawn a line about attacking inside Russia.
So Zelensky may be hesitant to do so. But in my book, Russian military bases should be fair game.

I think Putin has been very protective of the BS fleet in terms of defenses and location.
But Ukraine will never be safe as long as that fleet is in the Black Sea.

[Genki Hikari]

6. Russian analysts panicking over Ukraines moves in Kherson

If Ukraine succeeds, Russia's situation in the Kherson region get much--much--worse.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfGO-poXkAAi94a

IIRC, a major reservoir and bridge serving Crimea is near there as well. If Ukraine controls those, Russia is effectively screwed in Crimea, especially with the Kerch bridge barely functioning.

Too early to say for sure, but it looks like Ukraine is starting to pursue a long-term strategy to take back not only the Donbas and southern occupied regions, but also Crimea.

They are going to do to Russia what Vietnam did to America--chip away, chip away, chip away, until Russia is of tired of doing so much while having so little to show for it in return. This is a psychological war as much as it is a shooting war--and Ukraine has all the advantages for the former on their side.