Dems' dreaded deja vu: Another 50-50 Senate

[JoeOtterbein]

Politico

Although the party eked out wins from its current even-split slog, it badly wants to pick up more seats — and has a shrinking list of chances.

By MARIANNE LEVINE and HOLLY OTTERBEIN

10/15/2022 07:00 AM EDT

Democrats face a real and uncomfortable possibility after the midterms: two more years of a Senate divided 50-50.

After slogging through — and extracting some significant victories from — the longest evenly split Senate in history, Democrats are pushing hard to expand their majority by netting seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But as their list of potential pickups shrinks, they’re staring down a 2023 that may start with another 50-50 chamber: At the moment average polling forecasts exactly that, and POLITICO currently rates control of the chamber a toss-up.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is pulling ahead against his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to the latest polls, while Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s advantage over GOP foe Mehmet Oz has shrunk. And Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is in essentially a dead heat against GOP challenger Adam Laxalt, who has taken a slight lead in recent polls.

The tightening races, and fear of a narrow GOP takeover, are leading to some finger-pointing about the top Senate Democratic super PAC’s performance, particularly in prime potential pick-up states.

snip

more at link

[GreenWave]

1. Two words: No way Jose

[doc03]

2. I am guessing there is no more than a 50/50 chance of that. I think OPEC killed our

last hope for that.

[Elessar Zappa]

9. You underestimate pissed off women.

We’re definitely not going to lose the Senate and I think we’ll keep the House. Women are going to show up en masse on Election Day and the Republicans won’t know what hit them.

[doc03]

11. I hope so but we hear the young people are going to be our savior every election

but they never show up in the numbers expected. More women vote Democrat now will there be
that many more this time to make a difference?

[Elessar Zappa]

12. Except we have evidence women are pissed.

The Kansas abortion amendment polls were off by 19 points, the Alaska race polls predicted wrongly that Palin would win, most new voter registrations are young women, etc. And, btw, young people were a major reason for the 2018 blue wave.

[Lovie777]

3. I think Dems will get over 51......

[70sEraVet]

4. I don't know how well polling works,

When a sizable percentage of one of the two major parties has been convinced that elections are stolen and votes don't matter.

[BlueIdaho]

5. Politico...

[brooklynite]

10. Nothing wrong with their analysis.

[PortTack]

16. Agree..when I see their stuff I scroll on past

[yourout]

6. Barnes was the wrong candidate for this cycle with Roe being...

One of the big factors.
Really needed Godlewski running against him instead.

I like the guy but this state is not called Wississippi for nothing.

And I don't get why they don't run ads tieing Johnson to Trump.
they need to pull the gloves off and start hitting Republican candidates with their love for the insurrectionist.

[Meadowoak]

7. GOTV

[ananda]

8. Seriously? Pennsylvania?

That really hurts.

[WhiteTara]

13. Politico. Not trustworthy.

[rso]

14. Senate

50/50 stills allows Biden to make unimpeded lifetime judicial appointments for at least another 2 years.

[MichMan]

15. I am optimistic we pick up at least 3-4 Senate seats and 25 or so in the House

[tritsofme]

17. lol, what?

I think there is likely a very narrow path to retaining the House, especially after Dobbs, but a 25 seat pickup?

[rso]

18. House

You really believe we’re going to pick up 25 seats in the House ?

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. I think it's quite possible we lose 1-2 incumbents (GA, NV) and pick up 1-2 (PA, and maybe NC)

It’s going to be a nail biter, with Dems probably ending up with 49-51 seats. I don’t think we’ll get the 52 seats required to make both Sinema and Manchin irrelevant. We’d have to keep NV and GA, and then pick up both PA and NC or one other. PA is the only pick up that seems likely.

It will come down to how strong turnout is, and how strong suppression is.

And then Pat Leahy has to stay alive.