Some perspective on those "independent women" in the NYT/Sienna poll

[budkin]

Link to tweet

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[uponit7771]

1. The recent NYT poll is **HORRIBLE** polling with 4% MOE 3 weeks away from election. They know

... damn well by now why they got such high MOE in sectors of the poll like women.

We must demand higher polling and reporting standards of these polls.

There's one poll out this morning with Biden at 46% and dems leading generic by 5%

America deserves better polling and reporting on credible polls

[sarcasmo]

5. Agreed. Polling is ignoring Roe Rage.

[uponit7771]

6. YEP !! I believe Dobbs is an x factor

[Phoenix61]

2. What did the polls in Kansas show?

I seem to recall they were off a tad bit.

[W_HAMILTON]

3. I think it doesn't pass the smell test, but blaming sample size...

...is NOT the way to go about it. I think 792 is actually a pretty large sample size compared to many polls nowadays. A representative sample is usually a mathematically derived formula and it can be -- and often is -- achieved through "small" sample sizes.

[ColinC]

4. It's all about the ground game. This more than any election

Not because it's going to be close, but because the discrepancy in 2020 was because of the discrepant field advantage for Republicans due to COVID, and polls have tweaked their polling methods based on the 2020 election.

The Maine election results, for instance, did not snub polling predictions because polling was bad. Collins had a huge field advantage because of covid. Polling usually assumes a level playing field, but this year's polling is assuming a 2020 level playing field where Republicans had a huge advantage.

2022 might be a blowout for Democrats.